Uh no. I think you need to re-read what I said.
High chance of losing customers during migration step of Android equates to an overall less net profit because Play Store makes very little money.
On iOS App Store however, losing customers during migration step could still result in overall higher net profit from the extra 30%.
That extra 30% is meaningless if the customerbase is not installing the .ipa and is still using the App Store, which they most likely will.
Case in point: The Epic Game Store. The Cursed Fortnite Launcher has a much more generous cut for developers than Steam does, but that generous cut is not being taken full advantage of as EGS sees a lot less traffic than Steam does. Borderlands 3 for example, while it did well on the Epic Game Store sales wise, after it's exclusivity expired and the game arrived on Steam, the Steam version outsold the EGS version in a short time period. As revealed in court discovery for Apple vs Epic, the EGS is actually losing Epic Games over half a billion each year. It's not making the money they hoped as games just aren't selling there. They had to pretty much stop the exclusivity deals because it was costing them so much for no benefits as most just waited for the exclusivity to expire and the game to come to the much better platform.
The same is gonna be true for the iOS App Store since the majority of people are already set up for it, so alternative app stores and sideloading is not gonna be the threat to your precious app store you think it is.
I'm an iOS developer and I'm fully aware of how this works.
Explain how a third party store will update apps in the background?
Just like any other app store, in the background. It's not rocket science lmao.
Or run their own push notification service since Apple will likely not let third party developers who don't want to go through Apple push notifications through Apple's servers.
They'll probably just use their own or a third party service, just like they already do on macOS and Android.
Or backup the user app data.
Again, they'll probably just use their own solution. You're overthinking it.
You have no idea how much candy crush makes on iOS and getting an extra 30% is well worth the risk of losing users during the migration process.
Again: Established userbase. A lot of Candy Crush players are signed in via Apple IDs and have their progress tied to their Apple accounts. They'd have more to lose abandoning the app store than they do to gain.
Also you keep talking about this "migration process" since you seem to think once iOS 17 comes out that everyone overnight is gonna leave the App Store and just install .ipas, which they're not.
Because it was available directly initially. Expanding to MAS only expanded the pie and has zero risk. iOS however started off with the App Store and migrating iOS paid users to gain the extra 30% is financially feasible.
iOS didn't have an App Store when it launched as iPhone OS in 2007. The App Store wasn't a thing until a year later. Back then Apple wanted everyone to just make web apps.
And again, you're already proving that most devs (if any) won't leave the App Store once sideloading becomes available.
Not when you're forced to migrate.
Again, you keep assuming everyone is gonna leave once iOS 17 comes out.
And even if you had to go with sideloading, that would mean there was a better option than the Apple App Store that warranted doing so, and that's Apple's fault for not providing a good enough service than competitors.