With the iPad becoming a grown iPhone instead of a shrunken Mac, the Mac that we know and love has its days numbered. Let me explain.
For the last twenty years, desktop computers have had to deal with the lag of virtual memory. While running massive spreadsheets and word processors with the half to three second pause every minute or so was acceptable back then, apps have become more and more user interface intensive in dynamics requiring faster memory responses.
The biggest problem with moving desktop OS'es to a hand-held device has been this disk drive emulation on top of flash memory that has slowed down performance. Anyone using Windows Mobile with the "wait" icon is annoyed by it since virtual memory swaps is what the kernal is doing most of the time when you see that icon. Modern desktop OSes are built with the expectation that a disk drive is present for virtual memory.
A time will come soon where Flash memory will get cheaper than hard disks. Those in the memory storage business know how close these two GB / dollar lines are getting. When Flash memory cost hits parity, Flash memory access time is going to have hard disks go the way of paper punch cards and magnetic memory tape.
From that, Steve and company at Apple see this trend. This is why they are pulling all development resources, CPU, hardware, software, etc. in house so they don't have to talk about trend to suppliers 'til they are blue in their face. IMO, their goal in a few years is a totally solid state Mac with no hard disk, no virtual memory and with that, very quick memory response.
In the new few years I expect larger screen iPad like devices and and OS XI or whatever they call their next generation OS to run smoothly scaled up and down from an iPhone to and iPad to whatever they call thier totally solid state desktop computer.
Then you will see the computer of the future when this outdated virtual memory paradigm obsoleted and retired.
That is my crystal ball view!
Normally, I try to read a whole thread and respond at the end, but I had to click reply right away after your post. You make a lot of faulty assumptions in your post. First, the cost/GB of flash memory and magnetic disk storage is getting nowhere near even at this point, and it won't for a long time. Jut go take a look at what a terabyte of each will cost you. Second, flash memory isn't faster than a HDD at all tasks. It's great for random reads, which is helpful for app launching and file lods. It's doen't compare to a standard desktop, or even decent laptop, HDD for sequential read or write speeds, which is what virtual memory speed hinges on. SSD are getting faster, but not catching up, especially in the versions which are affordable in large amounts.
Switching to flash memory has nothing to do with virtual memory speed, it will have no impact on an OS's performance when doing page in/outs. It is about power consumption, size/weight, heat, and durability though. This is why it's so ideal for a portable device... not performance.
I agree that we will see a shift of Apple's tech over the next several years to blend the mobile and desktop workspace, but your reasoning doesn't hold up, imo.
I think the iPad is a device that is going to take some time to really catch on. Whether it ever becomes a hit for Apple will depend on the quality of the apps that are developed for it. As it is right now, it's a bit of a dud. No built-in camera for video conferencing means this is really just a big iPod Touch. It's too big to be a portable device you can drop in your pocket. You need a bag or a backpack for it. And if you're going to do that, you might as well carry a more powerful laptop with a real keyboard. Apple saw this as filling the gap between smart phones and laptops, but I don't think there really was a gap there. The iPad may yet prove to be a success, but it will have to carve out a niche for itself, and for that to happen, Apple needs the help of developers to create apps to win over buyers. That and Apple needs to improve the features set.
This is going to sell like crazy. We'll see some controlled "leaks" and announcements of new features and apps over the next two months and come the end of March there will be lines at Apple stores. It's marginally more expensive than a netbook, which is the space between smartphones and laptops right now, and the fastest growing computer market. Lots of people carry a netbook with them everywhere (myself included) and the keyboard sucks anyways. Toss in the slim, light, and fantastic Apple BT keyboard in my bag won't be any bigger than my netbook already is but I can have a stellar keyboard instead of the crappy one I have now.
I wish people would stop thinking about this as "an overgrown iPod" or a OSX-less computer and just see it as a netbook "killer", which is a huge market in itself.
I don't want to buy a whole new device in order to enjoy multi-touch apps. I want multi-touch on my Mac which I'm comfortable with and which I'm going to use most of my time anyway.
Apple, please don't invent new devices in order to make us pay more. It's a shame to waste your wonderful technologies by separating them from each other.
Spend the next 15 minutes pretending your iMac has a touch screen and let me know how your shoulders feel. The "Minority Report" multitouch floating screen is an ergonomic nightmare. It either has to be handheld or flat on a desk to work.
I agree the MLB at bat is amazing i almost wonder if this would Finally Convince Hulu or Netflix to make a App now.
I wonder if Netflix CAN make an app. Do they have rights for mobile (handheld) platforms? Would the iPad be counted a mobile platform, any mroe than a netbook would be? Do they have license to port Silverlight to another platform? Hulu can do whatever they want, as they are owned my the content owner, but Netflix is at the studios and MS's mercy on a lot of things. I really, really want Netflix on the iPad, though.
