Apple has no real competition in the smart watch category. On the Android side it seems like OEMs just made a smart watch because that was the next thing to do (just like voice controlled speakers are now). I don’t see any Android OEMs really pushing smart watches anymore. Won’t be hard for Apple to own this market at all. Not the same with streaming music. Spotify has a large customer base and we never really hear Apple talk about switchers. I don’t see HomePod getting many Spotify customers to conver to Apple Music. But I do think there are Spotify customers who would switch from Sonos to HomePod if it supported services outside of Apple Music natively.
Well, the common rebuttal is that Spotify still has yet to turn a profit. What is the likelihood that Apple simply outlasts Spotify in this regard? Apple has more than enough resources to keep supporting Apple Music indefinitely even if it is unprofitable, because it exists to sell more hardware.
And if Spotify ever does bite the bullet, Apple Music stands to be the greatest beneficiary.