RIP.
Fitbit is actually doomed. You can't try to rival Apple. You have to do something different and even then, you're probably screwed.
Are Suunto, Garmin and Polar also doomed? In the 'technological' wrist-worn device arena several categories have been converging to some degree as entrants from each category gain features from others. The main categories probably are:
- Exercise tracking starting with heart rate monitors, adding things like bike-connected sensors (Polar comes from that direction).
- Outdoor activities, from simple robust and waterproof watches to adding altimeters and compasses (Suunto), and GPS-based watches, miniaturising technology from handheld GPS devices (Garmin started here). Diving watches are a special subcategory of this.
- Activity or fitness trackers (Fitbit is clearly the biggest entrant now, others already failed).
- Smartwatches, showing some of the information that smartphones provide, most notably notifications (Pebble was the first, with Android Gear and Apple Watch following later).
Exercise tracking and fitness tracking had some overlap from the start and are adding many features from each other, as well as adding sensors and features from the outdoor activity category, which has done the same vice versa. They are also adding some smartphone features (eg, notifications). And smartwatches 'have found' that besides notifications, activity and exercise tracking are their main uses with outdoor features and sensors also being added (GPS, compass, barometer).
The current market is a continuum between those four poles and while some might say the smartwatch category will subsume everything, I think there are still niches at the extremes, like small and cheap activity trackers, 'professional' exercise tracking, and, eg, diving watches. But these niches are getting smaller. The question is really how many players/systems can the centre of this continuum support and will the smartphone integration of actors that are not Apple or Android-based be good enough to occupy a place that is not at the extremes.