True.
But there are a lot of inconvenient facts getting in the way of Flash as a future standard. And, unlike a lot of posters on the board, I write and design apps for Flash, iOS, and the web.
HTML5 is in it's infancy. There is no question. But it is the standard by which all future web based applications and websites will be developed, not flash. Why? It is supported by all major browsers anything webkit based (Chrome, Safari, nearly all mobile browsers), Firefox, Opera, and even Internet Explorer although we need IE9 as fast as possible to auto update all 7 and 8 installations. When I say "we" I mean all of humanity.
Flash, as a technology, will only survive if it can offer core features you CAN'T get in HTML5. Right now, Adobe is focusing on 3D. This is hilarious in some ways, because Viewpoint / MetaCreations had the best 3D implementation around for years until they ran it into the ground. But even 3D is being addressed by Webkit, and could easily be assed to the open spec.
For video, there is seriously NO POINT to placing content online as FLV's from a development perspective. Not anymore. Maybe some tools used to expedite the processing and publishing aspect are still cranking out Flash but they, at bare minimum, will offer HTML5 export soon. Why? Because they will INCREASE viewership when they do. Simple business math here.
But let's get right down to brass tacks, shall we? It's all about the feature sets. No matter WHAT Adobe does in Flash, their ability to implement those features efficiently in their Plugin will remain dependent on their ability to accelerate it using platform specific API's that may or may not be available to them through the plugin architecture. However, when new technologies are implemented directly in the browser, they have access to any new feature in the documented API's on the specific platform.
Case in point: video acceleration and 3D performance. Both require access to the GPU. Both will be insurmountably easier for Browser vendors to implement and maintain than it will be for Adobe. Simply put, there is always going to be a layer between Adobe and the OS that won't be there for the browsers native implementations.
Adobe could compete by creating really good IDE's, publishing tools, and vendor support. But why not just create IDE's that pump out industry standards? Even from a business perspective, Adobe does not make MONEY on Flash. They make money selling tools to create Flash. They could make just as much money making tools to build HTML5 compliant Rich Internet Apps.
I don't see Flash being a major player in 5 years. Sure, it will be around. But it won't be dominant. The tide is obvious to anyone doing the actual development.
