do-be-do
The Croquer numbers are in line with things I've been pointing out for a while. I don't think I'll go out on a limb at this point - the technology just isn't clear enough at the moment to warrant that. However, I find that there's nothing at all unbelievable about any of the aspects that they've claimed.
My reasons:
1)
The Power5 Servers are shipping. As many of us have heard, the buzz is that the 975/980 (whatever IBM decides to call them) revised processors will be based off of this very same technology, and they're being designed concurrently. Linear scaling, with the assumption that IBM keeps the same performance boost that they did with the
Power4 to
970 redesign (1.3ghz to 2.0ghz), we arrive at a 975 clockspeed of 3.08ghz (2ghz Power5, scaled to 154% clock). However, this doesn't tell the whole story. since the Power5 uses on-die memory control (DDR and DDR2), and a lot of advanced interconnect technology, and gains 40-100% performance over its predecessor.
2) PCI-Express is in. The cards exist and PC OEMs are about to start shipping them.
3)
Double-Layered DVDs are possible and coming to market. Pioneer Demoed the DVR AO6 (Apple's current burner) as capable of dual-layer with a firmware rewrite at CES 2004. They will not officially support the format until the DVR A09 in late 2004, or so the company has claimed, but products can be surprise-announced and Apple might have secured a deal on the firmware.
4) The original 130nm process 970s displaced 50w at 2.0ghz. To have their successors gain 50% of the clock rate at only 30% heat increase is pretty good engineering. If the 975
is a 130nm part, it will allow headroom for ramping and heat improvement when he 90nm process is ironed out. Meanwhile, IBM's 130nm line at Fishkill could have been cranking these puppies out for the last six months to ensure delivery.
Incidentally, has anyone else noticed the "90 days, same as cash" adds on the store? I think we're seeing major updates come WWDC.
musicpyrite said:
How many watts do the current 2, 1.8, and 1.6 processors run at?
How much more noise would their be between a dual 2 GHz now and a dual 3 GHz?
In order: ~50 watts, ~30 watts, and ~22 watts at peak (for the 130nm parts), from what I've been able to find
Noise? Negligible change in a full tower with Apple's heat management design. I've listened to the dual 1.8ghz and the dual 2.0, and the heat difference is comparable.
oingoboingo said:
Maybe everyone here is much richer than me. In Australia, the 1.6GHz G5 begins at AU$3199. The dual 1.8GHz system, is AU$4399. That's a big difference. It's roughly equivalent to adding a quality 17" flat panel CRT and an extra gigabyte of RAM to the 1.6, or to put it another way, being able to buy a combo drive eMac as well for the kids or spouse.
In the US, the price difference is a much more reasonable $700 ($1,799 to $2,499), and that will possibly buy you the same things if you're going cheap and don't mind skimping on features for that LCD. It's a much tighter difference, though.
Apple has priced the run-out OS9 booting dual 1.25GHz G4 only a few hundred AU$ cheaper than the 1.6GHz system...of course all the usual disclaimers apply (no FW800, louder fans, inferior video card, no SATA, no front-mount I/O ports, and of course, slower for practically all single CPU aware tasks and slower even on certain SMP-aware tasks).
Once again, I think this is more of an international price issue, stemming from the infamous practices of Apple Australia. The
dual 1.25ghz G4 is $1,599 here in the states, and the single is $1,299, though that leaves out some substantial difference between them and the newer towers. You get PC2700 RAM, PATA HDs, The Radeon 9000 Pro, and a combo drive on the standard models. It's really a tradeoff and pretty obvious that Apple wants people to move to OS X rather than OS 9.
bertagert said:
If IBM is having a tough time sending out a processor that powers a xserve, these updates the frenchies have listed can't be true. If they were true, Apple would take the so call 975 chip, scale it down, and plop it in the xserve. Although these specs will happen some day in the future, I don't think it will be at WWDC in 2004.
No, they couldn't, because the 970 and the 975 are unlikely to be pin-compatible. The move to the newer processors would require a motherboard redesign that could very well have to take into account the likely features of the new chip. The 970FX is a perfectly good server chip, one that will continue to work well in an environment where proven technology and a constant power supply and cooling system can be counted on, but it's just not the speed demon that the 975 could easily be.
BrianKonarsMac said:
i bet these specs are pretty dead on. Dual Layer burners are only at 2.4x right now, so that's pretty accurate (i remember someone saying they wouldn't use a 2x superdrive). i seriously hope these machines can hold 4 internal harddrives...2 is just NOT ENOUGH!! two optical drives would be welcome, but after becoming accustomed to one, i don't see the need (other than to do direct duplications of DVD's without copying to the hard drisk).
Two optical drives would allow the new Pioneer DVR AO7 that burns 8x DVD+/-R and 4x DVD+/-RW, along with a 2.4x Sony dual-layer DVD+/-RW. I championed the idea of an expansion of storage capacity not long ago, and I can see this being done rather easily with a slight rearrangement and resizing of the case. We'll see, though.
Zaty said:
IBM is having difficulties producing 2GHz chips (PPC 970FX) in quantities. What makes you believe they will suddenly be capable of shipping chips rated at 3GHz? If they were able to do so, as mentioned by another poster, why don't they put underclocked samples of that wonder chip into the Xserves?
Five words: Motherboard redesign and pin incompatibility.
Zaty said:
Do you know the specs of the 975 then? As far as I know its existence has only been rumoured. So do we have any confirmation that such a processors already exists and if it does, is it likely to appear in the next PM revision? If in fact the PPC 975 is ready why has Apple been waiting so long?
We know what the
Power5 is, and that it's shipping before WWDC.
0 and A ai said:
Dual layer in all doesn't make sense not to have dual layer in low end
Cost.
Why no dual-processor, or top-end graphics?
Cost. It all comes down to economics in the end, and what Apple thinks they can sell without breaking themselves in the process.
macmunch said:
Man ...... be happy over 3 GHz and be Happy that AMD and Intel will not even have a chance against this machine ! The fastet Athlon 64 FX has 2.4 ! And AMD lets it rising slowly in 200 MHz steps.
The Opteron and Athlon FX chips do smoke the G5 on some things, though. If the 975 is what it could be, then quite a few of those advantages disappear and Apple very well could be on top of the world again. Just be careful not to fall into the megahertz myth yourself... AMD already knows this, and so do Apple and IBM.
nmk said:
Also, I think this rumor is garbage. I'm expecting Apple to release 2.2, 2.4, and 2.6 Ghz models, with the latter two being dual. I don't think its reasonable to expect 3ghz models considering IBM's fabrication problems. I really don't see how it would be a letdown, as a dual 2.6 would be very competitive.
So what if Steve said they would be at 3ghz. He made a statement based on information he had a year ago. Things change. Deal with it.
The Power5 is not 90nm, and that's where all the problems have been. If Apple and IBM step back to proven 130nm technology to design the 975 and then drop the die size in 8 months to a year, they have plenty of time and space to work out the crosstalk and fabrication issues before it really matters.
Steve has more information to make his statements than any of us, and Apple started planning this move
two or more years before the G5 was announced. It's not at all inconceivable that the next step was always intended to be another processor. Nothing in his keynote said "We will have 970 chips at 3.0ghz." The only promise was that Apple and IBM would be there.