Long post incoming, but I think it's worth it.
It's been taken as a universal truth that the iPhone X will see shortages like no Apple product has before. MacRumors has written no fewer than nine articles about its predicted scarcity, the forums are alight with people assuming it will be impossible to obtain, and every analyst around, from podcasters to Ming-Chi Kuo, are expecting shortages until next year.
But in all the effort to interpret the tea leaves of the supply chains, and panic over low yields of the TrueDepth camera system (which, let's not forget, the same analysts didn't think would even exist just a few months ago when they were still rambling on about in-display Touch ID), there are so many obvious positive signs that have been missed:
The press release
The press release is a treasure trove of hidden information when you remember that every word of it is laboured over, and Apple often foretells us of product shortages using their press releases.
Remember the Apple Pencil and Smart Keyboard, which faced a 4-5 week backlog almost immediately? Well, Apple foretold:
Remember AirPods, which faced 6 week delays almost immediately? Again, Apple foretold:
And finally, remember iPhone 7:
Now, studious observers will be screaming that this last warning was issued after pre-orders began - a point yet to be reached for iPhone X - but still, this year is different due to the long gap between announcement and availability, compared with the two week gap last year. There has been plenty of time - and plenty of incentive - for Apple to warn customers, their investors, and their retailers officially that supply will be particularly bad this year, but that hasn't happened.
The roll-out
The press release also tells us where devices will be available and when. The sooner it rolls out worldwide, the better the supply is. That much is obvious, because in an ideal world Apple would love for their new iPhone to be available in every shop in every corner of the Earth on day one: it means more are sold.
Here's some history on iPhone roll-outs:
No. It will be available in 57 countries and regions on day one. 57! That's totally unprecedented. And on what is meant to be the most constrained Apple product ever? It just doesn't make sense.
The cost
This thing is seriously expensive. End of point.
The time
Apple has given themselves a long time between announcement and pre-order and availability when you consider the rate at which Apple can ramp production. Most new iPhones come in to supply-demand balance in less time than Apple has given themselves this year.
A fixed availability date
Remember iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black? That was an availability minefield. I think it is agreed now that not a single one was delivered on September 16, 2016 - i.e. the release day. But Apple could still claim September 16 was the release date because other colours did deliver on that date.
But the same doesn't apply to iPhone X because some number of them must be available November 3, otherwise that couldn't be the launch date.
So the many people comparing the iPhone X to the Jet Black Plus... it simply cannot be as bad as that was.
What was the delay for then?
If my theory is correct, and supply won't be so disastrous, why are we waiting until November before these things ship?
I think it's largely due to the software for Face ID.
Today's iOS beta added more features for Face ID that were announced at the start, e.g. attention detection, and the embarrassing Face ID incident with Craig (yes, it worked as intended, but the lock-out experience clearly needs some work and a better UI!), and lack of live Face ID demos for the press look to me as signs that it isn't at 100% yet from the software side.
To be clear... I'm not saying it won't sell out. Of course it will. It could easily slip to 3-5 weeks on pre-order day like lots of other iPhones have. But I think 1) those ordering in the first few minutes will get one on launch day, and 2) those wanting one for Christmas won't be disappointed.
End of rant. I'm interested in your thoughts.
It's been taken as a universal truth that the iPhone X will see shortages like no Apple product has before. MacRumors has written no fewer than nine articles about its predicted scarcity, the forums are alight with people assuming it will be impossible to obtain, and every analyst around, from podcasters to Ming-Chi Kuo, are expecting shortages until next year.
But in all the effort to interpret the tea leaves of the supply chains, and panic over low yields of the TrueDepth camera system (which, let's not forget, the same analysts didn't think would even exist just a few months ago when they were still rambling on about in-display Touch ID), there are so many obvious positive signs that have been missed:
The press release
The press release is a treasure trove of hidden information when you remember that every word of it is laboured over, and Apple often foretells us of product shortages using their press releases.
Remember the Apple Pencil and Smart Keyboard, which faced a 4-5 week backlog almost immediately? Well, Apple foretold:
Remember AirPods, which faced 6 week delays almost immediately? Again, Apple foretold:
And finally, remember iPhone 7:
Now, studious observers will be screaming that this last warning was issued after pre-orders began - a point yet to be reached for iPhone X - but still, this year is different due to the long gap between announcement and availability, compared with the two week gap last year. There has been plenty of time - and plenty of incentive - for Apple to warn customers, their investors, and their retailers officially that supply will be particularly bad this year, but that hasn't happened.
The roll-out
The press release also tells us where devices will be available and when. The sooner it rolls out worldwide, the better the supply is. That much is obvious, because in an ideal world Apple would love for their new iPhone to be available in every shop in every corner of the Earth on day one: it means more are sold.
Here's some history on iPhone roll-outs:
- iPhone 6 was available in 10 countries and regions on day one.
- iPhone 6s was available in 12 countries and regions on day one.
- iPhone 7 was available in 29 countries and regions on day one.
- iPhone 8 was also available in 29 countries and regions on day one.
No. It will be available in 57 countries and regions on day one. 57! That's totally unprecedented. And on what is meant to be the most constrained Apple product ever? It just doesn't make sense.
The cost
This thing is seriously expensive. End of point.
The time
Apple has given themselves a long time between announcement and pre-order and availability when you consider the rate at which Apple can ramp production. Most new iPhones come in to supply-demand balance in less time than Apple has given themselves this year.
A fixed availability date
Remember iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black? That was an availability minefield. I think it is agreed now that not a single one was delivered on September 16, 2016 - i.e. the release day. But Apple could still claim September 16 was the release date because other colours did deliver on that date.
But the same doesn't apply to iPhone X because some number of them must be available November 3, otherwise that couldn't be the launch date.
So the many people comparing the iPhone X to the Jet Black Plus... it simply cannot be as bad as that was.
What was the delay for then?
If my theory is correct, and supply won't be so disastrous, why are we waiting until November before these things ship?
I think it's largely due to the software for Face ID.
Today's iOS beta added more features for Face ID that were announced at the start, e.g. attention detection, and the embarrassing Face ID incident with Craig (yes, it worked as intended, but the lock-out experience clearly needs some work and a better UI!), and lack of live Face ID demos for the press look to me as signs that it isn't at 100% yet from the software side.
To be clear... I'm not saying it won't sell out. Of course it will. It could easily slip to 3-5 weeks on pre-order day like lots of other iPhones have. But I think 1) those ordering in the first few minutes will get one on launch day, and 2) those wanting one for Christmas won't be disappointed.
End of rant. I'm interested in your thoughts.
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