Very true.
As I said, smartphones are my only hobby. I use them for 2 years. On a 2 year contract.
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Going out on a limb... the iPhone X won't be nearly as constrained as predicted!
- Thread starter Brookzy
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Very true.
As I said, smartphones are my only hobby. I use them for 2 years. On a 2 year contract.
True true. I do understand what you mean, but it isn't as bad as you think. My wife and I both work. We just spend too much money haha. Anyway, let's see if the X is worth it or the Samsung galaxy s9. And if both are not worth, I'll keep my s8 for another year.
Also you are in Holland so it’s not like illness or breaking a leg might cause you massive financial problems or anything.
I don't think you are wrong. All I am saying is that I personally choose to put more credence in his own words than "code found in the keynotes" lol.
I would be extremely happy if this thing was easy to get. I have no desire to wait in line, and I am likely to skip the phone alltogether if there's a wait time of multiple months out the gate.
This is simply speculation. It's speculation from BOTH sides (constrained and non-constrained).
The reasons why it is EXTREMELY likely that there will be massive constraints are numerous:
1) Apple has already delayed pre-orders for nearly 2 months hoping to increase yields
2) Apple is having difficulty with Face ID components (so much so, they are telling other suppliers to slow down, as they can't use the supply they already have until they can master Face ID production).
3) The "8" (or as I like to call it, the 6SSS), was a verifiable flop compared to even the 6S launch (let alone the launch of a truly "new" iPhone. People have been waiting not only for a "new" iPhone to be released, but many have specifically waited for THIS one (the X), hoping that it would be especially revolutionary given it's anniversary status.
4) The X was advertised as a worldwide launch, further increasing the effect of supply/demand.
5) People that have decided to wait on the X have already been delayed 2 full months compared to the usual cycle, which means even MORE people will be ready to either upgrade or replace out of necessity.
6) The X is the "best" iPhone available, and is not priced so prohibitively that the vast majority of people will settle for anything else. Apple miscalculated how many people would settle for the 8, and that miscalculation is about to bite them on the 27th even IF they had been able to hit yield targets (which by all accounts, they have been unable to do).
I could go on, but underestimating the demand for the X is insane. It will sell out, FAST, and I am hardly a prophet making that assertion. There is far too much pent up demand, far too many production problems, and it's a WORLDWIDE launch.
It's going to be ugly on the 27th. Just watch. And again, I don't expect a medal for that "prediction", but hoping that it won't be is silly, especially given the facts.
The reasons why it is EXTREMELY likely that there will be massive constraints are numerous:
1) Apple has already delayed pre-orders for nearly 2 months hoping to increase yields
2) Apple is having difficulty with Face ID components (so much so, they are telling other suppliers to slow down, as they can't use the supply they already have until they can master Face ID production).
3) The "8" (or as I like to call it, the 6SSS), was a verifiable flop compared to even the 6S launch (let alone the launch of a truly "new" iPhone. People have been waiting not only for a "new" iPhone to be released, but many have specifically waited for THIS one (the X), hoping that it would be especially revolutionary given it's anniversary status.
4) The X was advertised as a worldwide launch, further increasing the effect of supply/demand.
5) People that have decided to wait on the X have already been delayed 2 full months compared to the usual cycle, which means even MORE people will be ready to either upgrade or replace out of necessity.
6) The X is the "best" iPhone available, and is not priced so prohibitively that the vast majority of people will settle for anything else. Apple miscalculated how many people would settle for the 8, and that miscalculation is about to bite them on the 27th even IF they had been able to hit yield targets (which by all accounts, they have been unable to do).
I could go on, but underestimating the demand for the X is insane. It will sell out, FAST, and I am hardly a prophet making that assertion. There is far too much pent up demand, far too many production problems, and it's a WORLDWIDE launch.
It's going to be ugly on the 27th. Just watch. And again, I don't expect a medal for that "prediction", but hoping that it won't be is silly, especially given the facts.
The OP has made some very sound arguments backed by strong evidence. None of us truly know what's going on behind the scenes, but we should know quite well that "research notes" and other sources of the endless rumors should be taken with a grain of salt. And stories of doom bring page clicks and attention, so there's strong motivation for these sources to keep giving us the worst case based on limited information.
I've been assuming that preordering the X would be much like the Jet Black 7 Plus, or worse. I experienced that first-hand last year, and literally had to give up and change my order to another color a week later. I'm hoping the OP is right, and his detailed reasoning gives me some hope that he is.
I plan to order two iPhone X's on preorder night, one for me and one for my wife. We upgrade every year and are on the AT&T Next plan. Yes this is an expensive iPhone, but it's not a huge increment over what we were already paying, and we can afford it. It's our phone, computer, camera, photo album, and so on. We're really looking forward to the edge-to-edge OLED display, the form factor, and the capabilities. I'm more hopeful now that we'll have them on November 3.
I've been assuming that preordering the X would be much like the Jet Black 7 Plus, or worse. I experienced that first-hand last year, and literally had to give up and change my order to another color a week later. I'm hoping the OP is right, and his detailed reasoning gives me some hope that he is.
I plan to order two iPhone X's on preorder night, one for me and one for my wife. We upgrade every year and are on the AT&T Next plan. Yes this is an expensive iPhone, but it's not a huge increment over what we were already paying, and we can afford it. It's our phone, computer, camera, photo album, and so on. We're really looking forward to the edge-to-edge OLED display, the form factor, and the capabilities. I'm more hopeful now that we'll have them on November 3.
Yet today’s article based on latest reports, say that the iPhone X is on schedule and ramping up production.
Guess we'll find out today if Brookzy's predictions are correct. I'm leaning towards them being correct. Better to stay hopeful, right? 
Okay, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks the supply situation has been overly exaggerated. Of course, it will sell out but logically, all of your points make sense. 57 countries is almost double the highest roll out. Like you stated, if the supply wasn't there I don't see them rolling out to 57 countries on launch day. I'm excited and this just made me more excited! I'm sure some of us will inevitably end up with pushed back dates but I don't think the majority of us will have dates in March 2018 like others have been predicting.
I sure hope your right. There has been so much contradictory information, obviously some of it is wrong. I'm getting up at release time but I will be surprised if I don't get it launch day.
We'll know pretty fast. If you have your order in within the first 3 minutes and you're not getting one on launch day, you bet supply is extremely constrained. If it's been open for 30 minutes and people are still getting launch day confirmations, supply is probably in decent shape.
On a side note, all we can do is try our best. I'm going to order the phone as soon as the app/site goes live and see what happens. If I get it on launch or a month later, whatever. I've waited this long, i don't care about waiting another month or so.
Apple stores actually having some stock available for purchase is the best sign to me actually considering the iPhone 7 Plus in any color wasn't available in any physical stores.
Ugh just can't wait to get this over with at this point
Ugh just can't wait to get this over with at this point
And even then, it took about 2 1/2 weeks to get my Jet Black 7 Plus. The later release date and Apple's statement about having some stock in-store bodes positivity for me.
Apple announcing that stores will have stock for walk-in customers on launch day is a clear sign that supply is not that constrained, IMO. But of course we‘re still talking minutes, not hours, before the delivery date will slip from november 3 to 1-2 and then to 3-4 weeks.
Huh? More speculation? There are no facts here. Literally, zero facts. 100% speculation.
I'd just like to say that even though this actually makes me feel much more confident about securing an X in a reasonable time frame: I'm still going to be mashing F5 like a mad man come 1:01 am MST tonight!
Someone posting seems to have re-ignited this thread... note my original points were made over a week ago and we have a lot more news now, e.g. about walk-in sales, which I think back up what I initially speculated. Not long until we find out!
Do you mean the Jet Black iPhone 7 Plus? Because I walked out of an Apple Store on launch day last year with a matte black iPhone 7 Plus.
Now, whether those stores had stock for walk-in customers may be another story, but they did have stock to reserve for in-store pickup when preorders started.
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On my iUP pre-approval page, it simply says "Open the Apple Store app on your iPhone starting at 12:01 a.m. PDT. Demand will be high, so complete your upgrade as quickly as possible to get your preferred iPhone."
I do note that "Demand will be high" is different than "supplies will be limited". Marketing hype?
Personally... I'm just setting my expectations low in order to hopefully be pleasantly surprised. If I get a device before the end of the year, I'm good.
Everything on supply is speculation, some of it educated guesses, some of it shots in the dark but in the end its all speculation.
Yes, it's all speculation, and the analysts making these speculations also speculated during the summer that Apple was still struggling with the decision to put TouchID under the glass or go with FaceID as a "backup". We have since learned from Apple itself that the decision to go all-in on FaceID was made by Apple at least a year ago, which makes total sense given the scale at which they must manufacture these.
I am sure there is truth to the rumor that manufacturing the X is hard and has had some hiccups. But I put no faith in the scale or timing of the difficulties stated by the rumors. I'm sure preorders tonight will be difficult, but who knows how difficult.
We will certainly find out soon enough.
I am sure there is truth to the rumor that manufacturing the X is hard and has had some hiccups. But I put no faith in the scale or timing of the difficulties stated by the rumors. I'm sure preorders tonight will be difficult, but who knows how difficult.
We will certainly find out soon enough.
I'm pretty content at getting a date at this point. Just hoping my order goes through more than anything.
I thought about that as well, especially since i'll be using a gift card to purchase (I've never used a gift card on the app before). Seems easy enough, but if there ends up being a problem, i'll be toast.