Going out on a limb... the iPhone X won't be nearly as constrained as predicted!

[iSayBoourns]

Nobody really wants animoji lol

And it’s certainly not a feature that will make your average consumer want to spend $1k

Not to mention it’s restricted to only iMessage. Now if people could tweet/snap/etc an animoji it might be a different story.

Of course it’ll only be iMessage, it’s Apple’s messaging app. For everything else, that’s what third party apps are for.

There will be a big influx of Animoji style apps and/or feature added existing popular apps once the 10 is released.

I also wouldn’t say “nobody wants Animojis”. There’s a reason why emojis and stickers and all that junk are popular in many messaging apps. Because the world is vast. Just because it’s maybe not huge in the US, doesn’t mean it’s not popular in many other countries.

 

[comptr]

Long post incoming, but I think it's worth it.

A fixed availability date
Remember iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black? That was an availability minefield. I think it is agreed now that not a single one was delivered on September 16, 2016 - i.e. the release day. But Apple could still claim September 16 was the release date because other colours did deliver on that date.

But the same doesn't apply to iPhone X because some number of them must be available November 3, otherwise that couldn't be the launch date.

So the many people comparing the iPhone X to the Jet Black Plus... it simply cannot be as bad as that was.

Maybe some people did not get a Jet Black 7+ last year on Release day, but I got my jet black iPhone 7+ on Release day.

 

[flat five]

https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/02/iphone-x-survey-rbc/

you keep posting that graph.. don't worry, we've all seen it a few times.

but just having a little fun with those numbers....
so 25% less people want iPhone X than iPhone 8

here's iPhone 8 line at the Apple store that generates the largest iPhone lines:





there's 35 people..
according to your graph, we will only see 26 people in line for iPhone X at 5th Ave store.

is that what you're thinking too?
is this an ok interpolation from the graph numbers?

-----------------

and just for comparison, here's a map of the iPhone 6 line at the same store.. it's 15 blocks long.

Most teens don't even have a $500 secured credit card, much less qualify for financing a $999 iPhone and wireless service. So, no, that $50/month scenario doesn't work in reality.

say what?
none of this has to do with a teen getting an iPhone.
i don't know what you're basing these views off of but they're completely different than what i see going on.
(fwiw, i have 2 daughters.. pre-teen and teen.. and they have a lot of friends.. and most of these kids have iPhones.. that's what i'm basing my opinion off of.. maybe you see something different)
[doublepost=1508213188][/doublepost]

Just because it’s maybe not huge in the US, doesn’t mean it’s not popular in many other countries.

no.. it's huge in the U.S. too.

i think there are some people here who are out of touch.. but they don't know they're out of touch so it gets a little weird at times.
: )

 

[santela]

This is a well thought out post with evidence and analysis to support the argument. You have me convinced, well done.

 

[lordofthereef]

Predictions based on keynotes are perfectly reasonable, but aren’t we getting supply rumors from the guy who has given us on the nose leaks about both the 8 and X models as well as other Apple product information over the years?

I guess my point is that supply constraint rumors aren’t arbitrary. They come from the same place tons of other rumors that are now confirmed fact were. The guy has been right more often than he’s been wrong. A whole lot more often.

 

[Juan007]

Yes, you are right OP, great post. Scalpers need to think long and hard, they will get burned if they try to scalp this. They are betting that Tim Cook, AKA "MR SUPPLY CHAIN", will not be able to deliver sufficient quality on launch day. Well I don't know about you, but my money is on MR SUPPLY CHAIN, the millionaire CEO of Apple, not some pencil neck community college dropout who scalps consumer electronics for nickles to buy Pokemon cards. Tim Cook WILL deliver and scalpers will be WRECKED.

 

[KingslayerG5]

Counterpoint expects Apple will sell 130 million iPhone X units, earning Samsung $110 on each through the summer of 2019, while Galaxy S8’s global sales are expected to be 50 million, earning Samsung $202 each from components such as displays and chips in its first 20 months of sales.

130M sold with market availability for three years is Moto RAZR territory in sales. The most sold ever for an iPhone is the 6 / 6 Plus at 100M combined. I mean nearly everyone using iOS or loves Apple will have the same iPhone X as you but in a different case or color. Think different, yeah right.

I think after initial honeymoon phase excitement wears off like it does with anything "new", the next question is what's next? A new color or new design won't really alter how you really use your phone. Maybe with the Face ID unlocking and gesture swipes that I had with Android for years is where our habits might change.. a little.

I remember getting the Nintendo Wii on launch day. After a few months, I didn't touch it for years. I look at six months later videos with the Nintendo Switch on YouTube and same feeling after you beat the Zelda game. Boredom. Initial excitement and the novelty wears off.

Just an endless cycle wanting a new shiny toy before anyone else after growing tired of your old one from 2013-2015 with its degraded battery that you can easily replace for $25-$50 at any cell phone repair shop.

The iPhone X will be the most sold smartphone ever. No rush when we know Apple will milk the same design over and over with just newer color schemes. HTC did it with the One M7 for three straight years including mini variants and Sony did it with Omnibalance for 4.5 years now. X also feels rushed.

Smartphones are like automobiles where you can't expect drastic design changes annually. I like the OP's optimism but the rush to get it on launch day or within this year is really catered for scalpers or hardcore fans that want to beta test the tick models before anyone else or show it off to others for only a few months. That exclusive feeling hipsters yearn for.

Good luck getting one though. At least you have first option to return it within two weeks or scalp it on eBay. 130M in two years, I can definitely wait and save cash by not being Apple's guinea pig.

3Gs > 3G
4s > 4
SE > 5s > 5
6s > 6
8 > 7
XI or Xs > X?

Always rock with the tock.

 

[44267547]

Scalpers need to think long and hard, they will get burned if they try to scalp this.

You're not using logic outside the Macrumors world. I'm not a scalper and nor Do I ever have interest to be one who does. That said, there will always be scalping and there will always be potential profit to be made given the initial first demand with the iPhone X. Because there will always have a crowd that is not going to pre-order and will objectively want this new iPhone X badly enough where they will pay a premium over the MSRP. I know others who had no idea when the preorders even started, only to their knowledge of the November 3 availability date.

The MacRumors forum might be well aware of when to pre-order, but a large majority of outside consumers have no idea what to expect or they choose to order when it's available on November 3.

 

[KingslayerG5]

The rumors of short supply is only to help sales of the 8. I expect leading up to its launch that we will see a big turnout that we haven't seen in FIVE years since the 5. But after that first weekend when all the heatseekers already have their's, I expect the hype to die down like a new Star Wars film's box office revenue by its third weekend.

Back in 2010, people like me anticipated the 4 so much because we didn't know Apple would release s models. That's probably the last time I was actually excited for an iPhone. Last time Steve Jobs introduced an iPhone to us on stage and the first major redesign.

The iPhone 4 was the only one named properly for its time of release. S models messed up the order. We should be on iPhone 11 by now. Don't care if they look the same. Since this is an anniversary edition, getting it feels a little more special.

I believe this will be the last major iPhone release where we will see people line around the block for it similar to Final Fantasy X was for its series before its gradually decrease in sales and waning popularity. The peak iPhone sales. Even PS4 didn't have lines like the PS2 and PS3 did. Smartphone craze is waning.

Nobody celebrates 11th year anniversaries like they do with the number 10. And seeing it written as X just looks so cool. I too will pronounce it as eX like I mistakenly did with OS eX for years. Sounds cooler to say. Like a nickname/alias. That's why expect "an" instead of "a" before X, grammar Nazis.

Don't worry, X buyers. It will be around for three years in the market and 130M will be in circulation in the next two years. OP is correct that the shortages is overblown and you get yours before the year ends. The market isn't as eager for cool new features and design like it was 5-7 years ago. Like video games, mobile industry has become stale.

 

[Shanghaichica]

Here’s to hoping

 

[KingslayerG5]

Better competition and alternatives is also another reason why believe people will score the X this year. I read 10M-12M will be shipped before the year ends which is still plenty.

What we expected back in 2010-2012 is alot different from now. Android was still ugly and immature. Samsung still had that cheap, glossy plastic build. We didn't have OnePlus yet. LG was still kinda a joke prior to G2.

Nowadays, we open the box. Play with it. Go yippee or return it. Get on with our lives. If it isn't available, you either wait or get an alternative like iPhone 8 Plus, Note8, V30, Pixel 2 XL, etc.

Almost ANY flagship released the last couple of years is pretty amazing which wasn't the case 5-7 years ago when iPhone ruled all and every bored editor looked for an iPhone killer.

I remember I loved collecting CDs in the 90's. Early-2000's, I collected DVDs. Digital download ruined all that for me because I don't like clutter. Smartphone collecting is just a phase too like someone's iPod collection hidden in some shoe box somewhere collecting dust. Just phases in life.

Don't worry X buyers, you will get it soon enough. Tell us all about it, guinea pigs. Then another one after 10 months will get announced and with hopefully 4gb RAM and improved iOS12 this time. So we will see all the complaints on new threads that Apple loves money. No kidding. They're a business. Not a charity.

I had Oreo on my Pixel and while it isn't much of an improvement from Nougat, it certainly isn't as bad as iOS11 as it kept its fluidity. iOS11 is like Android's Honeycomb where it was originally built for tablets. iOS11 is another reason I'm no longer interested in the X. $1000-$1200 for a laggy af phone? No thanks.

I believe iOS11 is Apple's Microsoft Vista. Skip it.

 

[ultravegeta1981]

I live in Holland and get paid little bit over minimum wage. My only addiction are smart phones. I pay 56 euro monthly for my smartphone contract and will get a new phone in March. Time to upgrade my contract. My bank account is empty. Literally. So I have no right to buy a Iphone X?

 

[Brookzy]

Predictions based on keynotes are perfectly reasonable, but aren’t we getting supply rumors from the guy who has given us on the nose leaks about both the 8 and X models as well as other Apple product information over the years?

I guess my point is that supply constraint rumors aren’t arbitrary. They come from the same place tons of other rumors that are now confirmed fact were. The guy has been right more often than he’s been wrong. A whole lot more often.

In my opinion, he's like a sat nav: the ETA updates as you get closer to the destination, so it always seems like a correct estimate when in reality the final arrival time was a long way from the original estimate!

Ming puts out so many reports with different messages that he could always be said to be broadly correct. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back peddle in response to this morning's positive supply chain stories.

 

[Cryates]

Ming puts out so many reports with different messages that he could always be said to be broadly correct.

I think this is a highly missed point about KGI. You can never be wrong when you make every prediction possible.

 

[protoxx]

Summary of availability threads

I don't want to hear of limited supply, LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA

If I get mine on launch day there are no shortages

If I don't get mine on launch day it is a giant global conspiracy to justify high price

The number of people in need of a life is exponentially greater than is widely recognized.

 

[Brookzy]

Summary of availability threads

I don't want to hear of limited supply, LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA

If I get mine on launch day there are no shortages

If I don't get mine on launch day it is a giant global conspiracy to justify high price

The number of people in need of a life is exponentially greater than is widely recognized.

Except this one is none of the above is it?

 

[flat five]

Summary of availability threads

I don't want to hear of limited supply, LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA

If I get mine on launch day there are no shortages

If I don't get mine on launch day it is a giant global conspiracy to justify high price

The number of people in need of a life is exponentially greater than is widely recognized.

hmm. i think there's a little bit of flaw in the above sentiment.. mainly, you're treating this iPhone release as a single occurrence..
the problem is, these 'supply shortage' rumors happen every year.. some of us have seen it all before.. a few times over..

so it's not-- "I don't want to hear of limited supply, LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA"

more like -- "I don't want to hear of limited supply, it's very likely a bunch of BS.. just like it always is"

if Apple comes out and say "hey, don't go to the stores on nov3 because we aren't going to have any stock", then would be a good time to listen.. when Apple says there will be shortages, there are typically serious shortages.

but 'supply chain analysts'? hmmm.. don't listen to them.. for one, they're not even talking to us even though we read their reports as if they're being written for consumers/end users.

but if you insist on believing supply chain experts.. i'll wager this one vs the one you choose to believe:
https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...edule-to-meet-2017-production-demand.2078373/

 

[protoxx]

There will always be a constrained supply on launch day. Basic manufacturing economics.

Either Apple (or any other mfgr)
1) Build and store product for months in advance and releases stale product late
2) Has manufacturing capacity to quickly build to fully fill initial demand that sits idle most of the year
Both are costly in multiple ways.

Both presume you don't push the envelope very far and all components are available in whatever quantities needed.
Ex. Samsung Note 7 (failing batteries), oled screens

oled production is quite limited versus demand. Small oled displays are lower margin for oled mfgrs so less amounts of the production are available for the small display market. Apple is dependent on Samsung for oled displays, direct smart phone competitor.

but if you insist on believing supply chain experts..

Compared to the average forum ranter, yes I insist.

 

[Brookzy]

There will always be a constrained supply on launch day. Basic manufacturing economics.

Either Apple (or any other mfgr)
1) Build and store product for months in advance and releases stale product late
2) Has manufacturing capacity to quickly build to fully fill initial demand that sits idle most of the year
Both are costly in multiple ways.

Both presume you don't push the envelope very far and all components are available in whatever quantities needed.
Ex. Samsung Note 7 (failing batteries), oled screens

oled production is quite limited versus demand. Small oled displays are lower margin for oled mfgrs so less amounts of the production are available for the small display market. Apple is dependent on Samsung for oled displays, direct smart phone competitor.



Compared to the average forum ranter, yes I insist.

You haven't engaged with a single point from my original post.

 

[protoxx]

You haven't engaged with a single point from my original post.

Ok then
De- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile

 

[Jimpilot]

https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/17/iphone-x-suppliers-on-schedule-to-meet-2017-demand/

Interestingly enough suppliers are getting better yields. Looks more like a normal or near normal launch

 

[nilk]

I think supply will be able to meet the demand. That is to say, the demand is overestimated. Scalpers will be returning the phones back to Apple within the 14 day window. I have no data to back this up of course, and am biased because I think the X's design (hardware, software, and developer guidelines) is atrocious and I don't want one. We don't have reviews out yet, but we'll soon see reviews pointing out it's flaws. This combined with the higher price for what is basically prototype hardware and software means not as many people are going to line up to buy it as some might think. It'll still be very profitable for AAPL of course.

 

[roeiz]

I live in Holland and get paid little bit over minimum wage. My only addiction are smart phones. I pay 56 euro monthly for my smartphone contract and will get a new phone in March. Time to upgrade my contract. My bank account is empty. Literally. So I have no right to buy a Iphone X?

no, it will be your doom.

 

[ultravegeta1981]

no, it will be your doom.

Good the choice is mine than isn't it?

 

[protoxx]

I live in Holland and get paid little bit over minimum wage. My only addiction are smart phones. I pay 56 euro monthly for my smartphone contract and will get a new phone in March. Time to upgrade my contract. My bank account is empty. Literally. So I have no right to buy a Iphone X?

Advertising is the art of convincing people to spend money they don't have for something they don't need.
Will Rogers