Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Google Chairman Eric Schmidt: Competition Between Apple and Google is More Brutal Than Ever

rGiskard said:
So Apple's still at 12% or so of world smartphone market. That's MILLIONS of people. Developers are not going to abandon that many users. But if at some point in the future Apple is at 1% - 2% and Android at 98%, and Android has matured to the point where it's as stable and responsive as iOS? Hell yeah you'll see better apps for Android, especially if the iPhone lags in performance.

I'm not predicting this will happen, all I'm saying is it's a possibility if Apple cannot stop their market share slide. With the 6/6+, I see Apple stopping the slide or at least slowing it, making the fleeing developer scenario even more hypothetical. Or not.
Click to expand...

You still missed the difference between "quarterly market share" and "installed base"

One refers to the new sales over a 3-month period... the other is ALL devices in use today.

If, someday, Apple ever becomes only 1% of the smartphones sold in a quarter (market share)... how many existing iPhones will there already be in people hands at that time? (installed base)

Apple is still selling more phones every year... which increases the total number of iPhones on the planet. (again... installed base)

That's what gets developers excited.

But if you want to talk about market share... we can. But I gotta ask this question:

If Android, at 85% market share, is NOT already the default choice for developers... what makes you think 90% or 95% will be?

Logically the bigger number is better, right? And an 85 to 12 advantage would be a heartbreaking defeat.

But that's not what happened. Instead... the platform with the lower number is actually more desirable.

Weird, I know. :)

I remember when Android crossed the 50% threshold. I thought "oh crap... the App Store is doomed"

Yet Apple's App Store flourished.

I was worried again when Android crossed 60% market share... then 70%... then 80%... etc.

Yet Apple gained even more developers, apps, customers, downloads, and so on.

BTW... Apple will never have a market share advantage. There were over 295 million smartphones sold last quarter... while Apple only represented 35 million of them (for 11.9% market share)

But from a developer standpoint... that's 35 million more iPhones added to the hundreds of millions of iPhones already in use.
 
Michael Scrip said:
You still missed the difference between "quarterly market share" and "installed base"
Click to expand...

No I didn't, I used quarterly share because it's an indication of future trend instead of past success.

You seem to be saying developers will always favor iOS because they haven't left yet. I believe a tipping point exists. Even if Apple reaches the tipping point it won't be for 10-15 years, but it's there and such movements have a way of rapidly gaining momentum once they begin.

I should note that this isn't some "Apple is doomed" prophecy, merely a warning that market share does matter with respect to drawing sufficient developers to keep the platform vibrant and innovative.
 
Dmunjal said:
That happens to every Silicon Valley startup after a certain point. VCs usually demand a grownup come in to run the company after it gets to a certain size. Apple and Microsoft being the notable exceptions. Even Zuckerberg has Sanders to babysit him. Actually, even Apple 1.0 had Sculley.
Click to expand...

That's true. I guess where I take exception is that the "grown up" brought in isn't supposed to sap the life out of a company and change its character for the worst. From my perspective, that's what happened to Google. The Google of 2002 isn't the same Google of 2010. Somewhere in that time frame, the focus of the company seems to have gone off toward earning money and jumping into as many markets as it could find. The quality of the products and new ideas were shoved aside in a mad rush to me-too the rest of the industry with half-baked ideas. I still don't know why Google+ exists, and Android, as popular as it may be, just seems like a joke.
 
I would have just done a white paper online like Apple did with "Apple iOS Security" but ok :)

Whatever works better.
 
rGiskard said:
No I didn't, I used quarterly share because it's an indication of future trend instead of past success.
Click to expand...

But isn't Apple bucking that trend?

iOS started at 0% smartphone market share... hit a high of only 23% market share... and it's now sitting at 12% market share.

And at every point during those 7 years the Apple App Store has been an overwhelming success. It doesn't seem to matter what their quarterly share happens to be.

rGiskard said:
You seem to be saying developers will always favor iOS because they haven't left yet. I believe a tipping point exists. Even if Apple reaches the tipping point it won't be for 10-15 years, but it's there and such movements have a way of rapidly gaining momentum once they begin.
Click to expand...

What could that tipping point possibly be?

If 85% isn't enough for Android to become the dominant platform... how much more do they need?

rGiskard said:
I should note that this isn't some "Apple is doomed" prophecy, merely a warning that market share does matter with respect to drawing sufficient developers to keep the platform vibrant and innovative.
Click to expand...

See my first point.

I'd say Apple's platform has been VERY vibrant and innovative despite never exceeding 23% market share.

If anything... it's proof that you DON'T need a lot of market share to catch the attention of developers.

You just need a combination of having decent and capable hardware... excellent development tools... a store that gets developers paid... and customers who like to spend money.

Apple has all of those... and that's probably why developers like Apple so much.

Why would ANY developer go iOS-first or iOS-only when Android has 85% market share? That doesn't make any sense.

But it happens... all the time.

It's not simply the market share number. There are SO many other factors.

What if I told you that 8 out of 10 smartphones sold today are running Android... but 5 out of those 8 will never buy any apps?

Suddenly... all that Android market share ain't lookin' so hot :)
 
I bear no ill will toward Google or Android. But Eric Schmidt apparently either has his head in the sand, or is just totally inept for his current job.
 
rGiskard said:
I don't think the word "spank" means what you think it means.

Android is CRUSHING iOS in marketshare. The new iPhones will help, but only the 6+ has a competitive display. Most people don't know much about cameras so they figure higher MPs is always better.

Android L will be instructive in what the next few years look like for Apple. If Google fixes stability and performance issues, Apple will never regain lost market share. Most Mac/iPhone users I know buy the overpriced hardware to use the OS, so once the OS lead evaporates, there is no reason to pay twice as much for a device that's too thin.
Click to expand...

I know what the word spank means thanks. Quality over quantity, market share does not mean better. Android is still a fragmented and buggy piece of junk. If they move to correct that I will change my opinion. However, Apple still has a distinct advantage when controlling both hardware and software.
 
Michael Scrip said:
Dude... Android already has 85% market share. If they can't attract more Android-only killer apps with those numbers... I don't know what else they need.

Or maybe market share isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Consider this:

1. Apple has never had the most smartphone market share.
2. Apple's App Store is the most vibrant and successful app store in history.

Those two statements seem to contradict each other, don't they?

Android smartphones have had more market share than iPhones for years. So if you're counting on developers going "Android-First"... it should have happened already.

Let's be clear... market share is somewhat of a report card at the end of the quarter. They add up all the smartphone sales over the last three months and see how the various OEMs and platforms stack up.

Apple once hit a high of about 23% market share... and they're hovering around 12% today. Yet despite those relatively poor numbers... the Apple App Store has always had an incredible amount of attention from developers. Weird huh?

Oh I know what you're thinking... Apple's market share is falling and falling. That's true... percentage wise. As the smartphone market grows... there's only so many iPhones Apple can manufacturer and sell. (but don't forget... Apple's sales are going up even though their percentage is going down)

I predict that Apple will only have about 10% smartphone market share next quarter. Sounds bad, right? No developer will want to make apps for the iPhone, right?

Not quite... you also need to remember this:

1. When Android had 60% market share... developers loved the iPhone
2. When Android had 70% market share... developers loved the iPhone
3. When Android had 80% market share... developers loved the iPhone

So it's pretty clear that market share isn't the only thing developers look at.

And there's also this:

1. There will soon be about 500 million iPhones out in the world.
2. iPhone users tend to spend a lot of money on apps.

In short... developers go where the money is... and 500 million iPhones is too big to ignore. Apple has more than enough installed base... it's not some obscure platform.

Yes there will always be more Android phones than iPhones... but there is more than just the raw number of devices. You also have to consider who is buying those Android phones and how many of them are spending money on apps.

All those cheap Android phones from the "Others" category clearly don't get developers excited. If someone is spending next-to-nothing on a cheap Android phone... they're not gonna spend a lot of money on apps.

There may be a billion Android phones out in the world right now... but developers still aren't getting the same results they get from fewer iPhones.

Or to put it another way... more market share or a bigger installed base isn't always the answer.
Click to expand...

I realize I'm only providing one perspective, but many Android users I know believe "all software should be free." They truly believe developers should be providing stuff free or with ads. Look, I like free as much as the next guy but, as a developer (at my job, not iOS), if I wasn't getting paid, I'd be working elsewhere.

The other odd perspective from Android users is this belief that they can get cheaper phones. As I like to point out, both iPhones and Android phones come in the range of FREE to hundreds of dollars. The difference is, iPhones all come with the latest OS. Android phones, despite the price you pay, come with Randroid®.
 
I'm glad Privacy
Can use Apple
As a proxy

Because in a
Pure competition
Against Google

Privacy lost
Long ago.
 
deputy_doofy said:
I realize I'm only providing one perspective, but many Android users I know believe "all software should be free." They truly believe developers should be providing stuff free or with ads. Look, I like free as much as the next guy but, as a developer (at my job, not iOS), if I wasn't getting paid, I'd be working elsewhere.

The other odd perspective from Android users is this belief that they can get cheaper phones. As I like to point out, both iPhones and Android phones come in the range of FREE to hundreds of dollars. The difference is, iPhones all come with the latest OS. Android phones, despite the price you pay, come with Randroid®.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't be surprising to hear that Google is a supporter of the Free Software movement. This because Google's business model isn't built on revenue from software, or hardware, it is built on getting as much software in the hands of users that will leak intelligence about private users back to Google to be used for data-mining and exploitation via advertising. (Indeed, I've always viewed Most of Google's own hardware efforts as loss-leading efforts aimed at: keeping the base of Android hardware vendors on its toes; an emergency option should a big android user go off-reservation by suddenly rolling out a competitive proprietary s/w (maybe like Tizen); a way to have some in house method/operation capable of gaining intelligence about Apples internal efforts through hiring ex-Apple personnel.

If there is continued divergence in the core way Google and Apple view customer's privacy as a path to profits, crossed with an eventual risk that a big Android user (Samsung) may move to proprietary software, Google is almost forced to compete in the hardware space just to cover its, ahem, assets.

----------
dljeffery said:
I bear no ill will toward Google or Android. But Eric Schmidt apparently either has his head in the sand, or is just totally inept for his current job.
Click to expand...

Or he is boss of an operation that is playing a far different game from the one that you think it it playing.
 
Solver said:
"Samsung had these products a year ago"

I don't seem to remember a high end android phone as thin, lite and with a build quality like the iphone 6.
Click to expand...

Build quality like the iphone 6? You mean because the note doesn't bend? Why is aluminum such a premium material? They make pop cans out of it.

----------
arian19 said:
Where can I get the How does 8.0.1 work, book?
Click to expand...

Try looking in the fiction section!
 
Listen Eric, when you write a software and give it away for free, then there is no competition. Let alone a brutal one. Shareware isn't a market. You can use all of it and pay nothing for it. No problem.

And Apple doesn't even try to collect my information and sell it to somebody else. Even in that business Google is completely alone. I'd argue you're not even in the computer industry. Samsung is. :p
 
Even his name sounds evil. I've been meaning to move away from Google for a while, but I can't seem to get away from Gmail...
 
gnasher729 said:
Quote from Schmidt: "You have no privacy. Get over it. " In my book, that comes close to "scum of the Earth".
Click to expand...

I'd argue that he was being upfront and disclosing their practices of privacy, or a lack thereof. The opposite would be to pretend or ignore that fact and leave people wondering.
 
If you look at the screen sizes that Samsung was using on their phones at the release of the original iPhone in 2007, you can't really claim that Samsung was "first" with larger screen sizes. That's always been a claim that required ignoring the original release entirely.
 
12vElectronics said:
Why don't people like Schmidt?
Click to expand...

I don't care for him because he has built a company around selling my data. Steve hated him because used his position at Apple to snake away ideas for Android.. without ever admitting that Android is largely inspired by iOS. And everyone hates him because he looks like an evil villain.
 
Samskunk?

So Samsung had perfectly smooth working iPhones running iOS before?
I can't recall that...
 
Robert.Walter said:
I'm glad Privacy
Can use Apple
As a proxy

Because in a
Pure competition
Against Google

Privacy lost
Long ago.
Click to expand...

Beautiful poem

----------
cmaus said:
So Samsung had perfectly smooth working iPhones running iOS before?
I can't recall that...
Click to expand...

No...pretty sure last year Samsung had a ****** plastic S4 that was completly abyssmal in low light alongside with lag
 
Stella said:
Go read the history of Android, you'll learn something, instead of jumping on the 'Google are thieves" bandwagon.
Click to expand...

I've read it. The part where Android when from a Blackberry clone to an iOS clone while Schmidt was still on the Apple board was most illuminating. Thanks.
 
eenuuk said:
I know what the word spank means thanks. Quality over quantity, market share does not mean better. Android is still a fragmented and buggy piece of junk. If they move to correct that I will change my opinion. However, Apple still has a distinct advantage when controlling both hardware and software.
Click to expand...

Android is not a buggy piece of junk. It was, and I would have agreed even just six months ago.

Not any more.

I keep a Nexus device around all the time to keep current.

The latest KitKat builds for about the last five months or so have been rock solid, even on old hardware. Much more solid than iOS 8.0. In fact, in my opinion, the latest KitKat makes iOS8 look like a joke right now. I think Apple may get their act together by 8.04 or so, but right now they are a MESS.

I was disgusted by Android a year ago and so came over to iOS. Today I'm pretty irritated by iOS and will probably jump back over to Android for my everyday mobile OS as soon as I can get my hands on a Z3c.

I have zero brand allegiance, I want what is best today. Today, comparing side-by-side, that is not iOS.

As far as apps go, I run identical apps for the most part on my iPhones/iPod and my Nexus. They are for all practical purposes essentially the same. Some are better/more stable on one platform and visa versa.

----------
Michael Scrip said:
What if I told you that 8 out of 10 smartphones sold today are running Android... but 5 out of those 8 will never buy any apps?

Suddenly... all that Android market share ain't lookin' so hot :)
Click to expand...


By your rough math, the number of people buying apps is, by my rough math about the same.

And I find the apps on both platforms to be about the same.

I know it's harder to code for and support Android because of so many differing hardware and OS version possibilities - but there's still money to be made there and just about all the major apps are on both platforms.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back