So Apple's still at 12% or so of world smartphone market. That's MILLIONS of people. Developers are not going to abandon that many users. But if at some point in the future Apple is at 1% - 2% and Android at 98%, and Android has matured to the point where it's as stable and responsive as iOS? Hell yeah you'll see better apps for Android, especially if the iPhone lags in performance.
I'm not predicting this will happen, all I'm saying is it's a possibility if Apple cannot stop their market share slide. With the 6/6+, I see Apple stopping the slide or at least slowing it, making the fleeing developer scenario even more hypothetical. Or not.
You still missed the difference between "quarterly market share" and "installed base"
One refers to the new sales over a 3-month period... the other is ALL devices in use today.
If, someday, Apple ever becomes only 1% of the smartphones sold in a quarter (market share)... how many existing iPhones will there already be in people hands at that time? (installed base)
Apple is still selling more phones every year... which increases the total number of iPhones on the planet. (again... installed base)
That's what gets developers excited.
But if you want to talk about market share... we can. But I gotta ask this question:
If Android, at 85% market share, is NOT already the default choice for developers... what makes you think 90% or 95% will be?
Logically the bigger number is better, right? And an 85 to 12 advantage would be a heartbreaking defeat.
But that's not what happened. Instead... the platform with the lower number is actually more desirable.
Weird, I know.
I remember when Android crossed the 50% threshold. I thought "oh crap... the App Store is doomed"
Yet Apple's App Store flourished.
I was worried again when Android crossed 60% market share... then 70%... then 80%... etc.
Yet Apple gained even more developers, apps, customers, downloads, and so on.
BTW... Apple will never have a market share advantage. There were over 295 million smartphones sold last quarter... while Apple only represented 35 million of them (for 11.9% market share)
But from a developer standpoint... that's 35 million more iPhones added to the hundreds of millions of iPhones already in use.