Gruber is tripling down on his price predictions

[cambookpro]

I disagree. $700 for a watch is not unreasonable, particularly given the technology. Spending another $300 for a dressier band seems reasonable.

That's true.

But is it reasonable for a mini-iPhone on your wrist, bearing in mind you need an actual iPhone for it to function?

You're not paying for the meticulous craftsmanship of a Patek Phillippe here - the insides (and probably the outsides too, for that matter) are going to be mass produced in China.

 

[Dave245]

I disagree. $700 for a watch is not unreasonable, particularly given the technology. Spending another $300 for a dressier band seems reasonable.

I have to say I agree with you, Personally I'm willing to pay up to $1000 for the Stainless Steel Apple Watch. The thing is it's not just a watch, from the little we have heard about it, the Apple Watch has great fitness capabilities such as the heart rate tracking, and with Apps and other features that are likely to be mentioned tomorrow I think it's going to be worth it.

 

[KPOM]

That's true.

But is it reasonable for a mini-iPhone on your wrist, bearing in mind you need an actual iPhone for it to function?

You're not paying for the meticulous craftsmanship of a Patek Phillippe here - the insides (and probably the outsides too, for that matter) are going to be mass produced in China.

You aren't paying $700 for a Patek Philippe, either. Is a Movado Museum watch really worth $995?

 

[douglasf13]

It seems that the importance of wearables being different than phones isn't hitting everyone. Do you think that a person who buys multiple $5K-$15K watches (there are a lot of these people) wants to wear the same watch as a high school student? The luxury watch market is a huge business, with Rolex alone doing $4.5 billion a year, and it's not as if it costs $4K to make an $8K Rolex. It's probably more like $500.

To succeed in wearables, Apple needs to go upmarket and be popular in fashion circles. Like it or not, people want to wear things deemed acceptable by the wealthy, and making expensive Apple Watches is what it is going to take to break the "geeky-ness" of wearables. The existence of the expensive steel and gold models will legitimize Apple in the fashion world, as well as sell a zillion Sport models.

 

[cambookpro]

You aren't paying $700 for a Patek Philippe, either. Is a Movado Museum watch really worth $995?

I do see your point, and I appreciate that some people are fine spending lots on something like the Apple Watch.

Personally though, I wouldn't. If I were to spend $1000+, I'd probably get something like a low end Tag Heuer. $500 is just about as much as I could stomach for something that is, essentially, duplicating functionality on my wrist.

If there is some kind of upgrade path so these are never outdated, then maybe I could see the appeal. But it's not a mechanical watch, it's a computer which will inevitably not have enough RAM or processing power to run Watch OS 4.0 or something three years down the line. If I buy a mechanical watch, at least I know that, if looked after, it will last many years.

 

[Rogifan]

I disagree. $700 for a watch is not unreasonable, particularly given the technology. Spending another $300 for a dressier band seems reasonable.

Except Gruber is predicting the SS bands coukd be $1K or more. I think the SS with Sport band starting price shouldn't be more than an unlocked entry level iPhone 6.

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To succeed in wearables, Apple needs to go upmarket and be popular in fashion circles. Like it or not, people want to wear things deemed acceptable by the wealthy, and making expensive Apple Watches is what it is going to take to break the "geeky-ness" of wearables. The existence of the expensive steel and gold models will legitimize Apple in the fashion world, as well as sell a zillion Sport models.

That's a big bet.

 

[KPOM]

Except Gruber is predicting the SS bands coukd be $1K or more. I think the SS with Sport band starting price shouldn't be more than an unlocked entry level iPhone 6.

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That's a big bet.

Some of the bands. I don't think the modern buckle is as expensive as he predicts. The link band is harder to say. It doesn't cost that much to make, but link bands tend to attract premiums.

It's a big bet, but necessary if this is to be seen as more than just technology. If Apple does have aspirations for cars or other luxury goods they need to start somewhere.

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Here are Gruber's final guesses (38mm/42mm):

Apple Watch Sport (all colors): $349/399
Apple Watch, steel, Sport Band: $749/799
Apple Watch, steel, Classic Buckle: $849/899
Apple Watch, steel, Milanese Loop: $949/999
Apple Watch, steel, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $1199
Apple Watch, steel, Leather Loop (42mm only): $1299
Apple Watch, steel, Link Bracelet: $1499/1599
Apple Watch, space black steel, Link Bracelet: $1899/1999
Apple Watch Edition, Sport Band: $7499/7999
Apple Watch Edition, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $9999
Apple Watch Edition, Classic Buckle (42mm only): $10,999

Looking at them, I don't think they are unreasonable. Again, look at my Burberry examples. There is a $300 difference between a leather vs. metal band.

 

[Piggie]

Here are Gruber's final guesses (38mm/42mm):

Apple Watch Sport (all colors): $349/399
Apple Watch, steel, Sport Band: $749/799
Apple Watch, steel, Classic Buckle: $849/899
Apple Watch, steel, Milanese Loop: $949/999
Apple Watch, steel, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $1199
Apple Watch, steel, Leather Loop (42mm only): $1299
Apple Watch, steel, Link Bracelet: $1499/1599
Apple Watch, space black steel, Link Bracelet: $1899/1999
Apple Watch Edition, Sport Band: $7499/7999
Apple Watch Edition, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $9999
Apple Watch Edition, Classic Buckle (42mm only): $10,999


Thank you for that list.

Tomorrow is going to be fun

 

[douglasf13]

I also think that it's important to mention, for those that aren't into watches, that most watches in the $500-$2000 range are basically a low end auto or Quartz movement, and you're essentially just paying for style and case design. There's nothing about a $1K Tag or Movado that really legitimizes the cost. It's all jewelry.

I'd much rather spend a grand on an Apple Watch than a Tag.

 

[rick98761]

Gruber is tripling down on his price predictions

Not that I think it will happen, but does everyone remember the original iPhone. It started at 499 for 4gb and599 for 8gb. They dropped the 4gb and lowered the 8gb to 399 just a few months later. If they really do price the SS at absurdly high prices I could see this happening again. I imagine they would like to avoid something embarrassing like that again.

 

[cleirac]

Some of the bands. I don't think the modern buckle is as expensive as he predicts. The link band is harder to say. It doesn't cost that much to make, but link bands tend to attract premiums.

It's a big bet, but necessary if this is to be seen as more than just technology. If Apple does have aspirations for cars or other luxury goods they need to start somewhere.

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Here are Gruber's final guesses (38mm/42mm):

Apple Watch Sport (all colors): $349/399
Apple Watch, steel, Sport Band: $749/799
Apple Watch, steel, Classic Buckle: $849/899
Apple Watch, steel, Milanese Loop: $949/999
Apple Watch, steel, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $1199
Apple Watch, steel, Leather Loop (42mm only): $1299
Apple Watch, steel, Link Bracelet: $1499/1599
Apple Watch, space black steel, Link Bracelet: $1899/1999
Apple Watch Edition, Sport Band: $7499/7999
Apple Watch Edition, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $9999
Apple Watch Edition, Classic Buckle (42mm only): $10,999

Looking at them, I don't think they are unreasonable. Again, look at my Burberry examples. There is a $300 difference between a leather vs. metal band.

That was probably posted a gazilion times but I keep avoiding it like a plague, but once and for all - I have to inspect it. So thank you.

I still do not understand why the link bracelet will cost at least $750. Guess, I should feel good or better, regardless if I am overpaying or not, with the Milanese loop, it is $450 cheaper than the link bracelet.

 

[KPOM]

I also think that it's important to mention, for those that aren't into watches, that most watches in the $500-$2000 range are basically a low end auto or Quartz movement, and you're essentially just paying for style and case design. There's nothing about a $1K Tag or Movado that really legitimizes the cost. It's all jewelry.

I'd much rather spend a grand on an Apple Watch than a Tag.

On another thread, Rasputin1969 said the quartz movement on a $1295 Burberry watch costs $12.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Guess, I should feel good or better, regardless if I am overpaying or not, with the Milanese loop, it is $450 cheaper than the link bracelet.

Gruber is the only one predicting the Milanese Loop to be cheaper than the Modern Buckle and the Leather Loop.

 

[KPOM]

Gruber is the only one predicting the Milanese Loop to be cheaper than the Modern Buckle and the Leather Loop.

If anything, I think it might be the reverse. The Milanese Loop may be more expensive since it is more meticulously crafted and metallic. I've heard a lot about how "feminine" the Modern Buckle is, but think that there could be some crossover at the midnight blue version. Also, the existence of the 38mm black classic strap somewhat undermines the idea that the 38mm is for women while the 42mm is for men. Yes, that's probably going to be the case most of the time, but there will be more crossover than he thinks.

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I think he's wrong but I hope he's right because then my choice is really easy. If the SS is $1,000+ then I'm not getting one and I'm fine with that. I'll get the Sport and I'm sure I'll love it. (Though I bet the black sport will cost more.)

And that's why I think he's wrong. Why would Apple make it easy for me to buy the low-end watch? Assuming the SS makes more profit the price needs to tempt me: squeeze me, sure, but don't stretch me to breaking point.

Surely Apple wants to sell a lot of these watches?

Apple wants to sell a lot, but they don't want to leave money on the table, either. Could they sell a lot more Macs if they sold a $499 version? Sure, but why would they? I think they figure that the tech market will get the $349 version and wouldn't buy the stainless steel even if it were just $100 more, so they might as well target the watch market with the higher end models. In other words, the Sport crowd isn't going to be "up-sold." It's the stainless steel buyers who will be up-sold between bands (or up-sold to multiple bands).

 

[8CoreWhore]

What’s Grubers records with previous predictions
IPhone
IPad
Etc.

I don't recall him speculating and dabbling in rumor at all in the past in this way. I could be wrong, but don't think I am. He points out now that this is different because it's so much "fun."

This does feel different than the other products...

 

[Knowimagination]

I still think he is off is rocker. I will be completely shocked if I can not buy a SS model with leather loop for less than $700.

It is just really annoying how confident he portrays himself when in reality he doesn't know any more or have any more authority on the subject than any of us do.

 

[Rogifan]

Apple wants to sell a lot, but they don't want to leave money on the table, either. Could they sell a lot more Macs if they sold a $499 version? Sure, but why would they? I think they figure that the tech market will get the $349 version and wouldn't buy the stainless steel even if it were just $100 more, so they might as well target the watch market with the higher end models.

And if Apple assumed that I think they made a big mistake. The idea that techies don't care about how something looks is plain wrong. Sure Apple doesn't want to leave money on the table but they could be leaving money on the table in the reverse if they're not selling the product.

 

[KPOM]

I still think he is off is rocker. I will be completely shocked if I can not buy a SS model with leather loop for less than $700.

It is just really annoying how confident he portrays himself when in reality he doesn't know any more or have any more authority on the subject than any of us do.

He's upfront that he's just speculating like the rest of us. However, I think he has a good point that we shouldn't be thinking about this like we would a normal item of technology. Have you ever seen an iPad ad in Vogue? Have there been any Apple Watch ads so far in tech publications? Did Jony Ive give Walt Mossberg an interview, or Nick Foulkes from the FT's How to Spend It (which is a magazine all about spending lots of money on luxury goods and frivolities)?

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

If anything, I think it might be the reverse. The Milanese Loop may be more expensive since it is more meticulously crafted and metallic. I've heard a lot about how "feminine" the Modern Buckle is, but think that there could be some crossover at the midnight blue version. Also, the existence of the 38mm black classic strap somewhat undermines the idea that the 38mm is for women while the 42mm is for men. Yes, that's probably going to be the case most of the time, but there will be more crossover than he thinks.[s)

Not sure what you mean by some crossover at the midnight blue. Midnight blue is available only with Classic Buckle and in 42mm.

Gruber claims the Modern Buckle is quite feminine, and hence why it's available only in 38mm. That has nothing to do with other bands being available in both 38mm and 42mm indicating they're unisex.

 

[KPOM]

Not sure what you mean by some crossover at the midnight blue. Midnight blue is available only with Classic Buckle and in 42mm.

Gruber claims the Modern Buckle is quite feminine, and hence why it's available only in 38mm. That has nothing to do with other bands being available in both 38mm and 42mm indicating they're unisex.

There is a midnight blue modern buckle in the stainless steel lineup.

 

[Knowimagination]

He's upfront that he's just speculating like the rest of us. However, I think he has a good point that we shouldn't be thinking about this like we would a normal item of technology. Have you ever seen an iPad ad in Vogue? Have there been any Apple Watch ads so far in tech publications? Did Jony Ive give Walt Mossberg an interview, or Nick Foulkes from the FT's How to Spend It (which is a magazine all about spending lots of money on luxury goods and frivolities)?

What would be the point in advertising in a tech magazine? Every time they advertise somewhere else they get tons of free coverage from tech sites all over. Tech people don't need to see a magazine advertisement to decide to buy an apple watch, they have probably already been following the apple watch or at least just smart watches in general. Reaching the fashion market and getting free tech press seams like a really smart move for Apples first wearable tech.

 

[KPOM]

And if Apple assumed that I think they made a big mistake. The idea that techies don't care about how something looks is plain wrong. Sure Apple doesn't want to leave money on the table but they could be leaving money on the table in the reverse if they're not selling the product.

There are techie people who care how things look, but I'd venture that most of them are fashionable/professional people who happen to be knowledgeable about technology and would be willing to pay $1000-$1200 for a stainless steel watch with a leather band since that's about what a low-end luxury regular watch costs.

It's a gamble, but if they priced it too low, it would never be seen as more than a simple tech item. That formula hasn't worked.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

There is a midnight blue modern buckle in the stainless steel lineup.

I see what you mean, but midnight blue is neither a masculine nor feminine color so that's irrelevant. Gruber's point is the feminine Modern Buckle is available only in 38mm for a reason.

 

[rossy100]

Here is my view on why Apple will not position the mainstream Watch model against luxury watches.....

In January 2015, total Swiss watch exports were around $1.6bn.

Some big assumptions here...... But extrapolating that out for 12 months and assuming an average selling price of $2,500 would equate to 7.7m units.

So the reason why Apple will not want to compete with the Swiss market is simply because the market isn't big enough (even if every Swiss watch purchaser moved to Apple). And on the basis that even getting 10% of that market would be a huge win, the numbers are even less exciting.

Apple therefore need to create a new market for consumers who don't buy luxury watches - and maybe don't even buy watches at all - just like they did with iPhone and iPad.

So what Apple should do (and what they always have done) is position a luxury item at an affordable price to the middle market consumer - the Sport and SS models. The edition model will the foray into the luxury sector.

 

[KPOM]

What would be the point in advertising in a tech magazine? Every time they advertise somewhere else they get tons of free coverage from tech sites all over. Tech people don't need to see a magazine advertisement to decide to buy an apple watch, they have probably already been following the apple watch or at least just smart watches in general. Reaching the fashion market and getting free tech press seams like a really smart move for Apples first wearable tech.

This launch is nothing like any of Apple's previous launches, though. They know that women will be the most difficult market, and they are courting them hard. This will be marketed as a "lifestyle" device. Hence they have Candice Swanepoel wearing one on the cover of Self, and have a 12-page spread in Vogue (not cheap). Whether or not this product succeeds depends on whether it resonates with women. It's an uphill battle since to date, the tech market is male-dominated, and even the Apple Watch is a bit big and bulky on the average wrist. But given the current state of technology, Apple needed to start somewhere, and they are coming out swinging.