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Gurman: Apple Planning No New Mac Releases For Remainder of 2022
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With M2 being out and used as you've mentioned in the Air and 13' Pro, the M1 is now outdated. We're not talking about M1 Pro or Max, but the entry level one, used in the base models, like that Air or Mini. And the Studio or MBP would be a significant step up in price range, so it's not a viable alternative.
And speaking specifically about this "Mac mini could be updated in 2024 for all we know." - yes, Apple is known for selling old crap for exorbitant amounts of money, no surprises here.
M2 has NOT been available for two years.
The first M2 products are the 13" M2 MacBook Air & 13" M2 MacBook Pro laptops; announced in June of 2022 & released in July of 2022; these were followed up by the October of 2022 announcement & release of the 11" & 12.9" M2 iPad Pro tablets...
This just doesn’t make sense. There is NO M2 Mac Mini. M1 Mac Mini is not outdated. You still don’t know if it will be updated this month, next year, or 2024. M1 Mac Mini is the current Mac Mini device.
Just because the Air got the update doesn’t mean anything. They are two different products. This is like saying Nth gen desktop Intel i9 is out of date because N+1th gen laptop i3 is out now.
What some folks apparently fail to grasp is that smart computer purchasing is not about comparing to one's dying computer did yesterday. Smart computer purchasing is about what the new box will be asked to do for the life of the new box. By definition buying M1 already means a year less life in the new box: 2-4 years instead of 3-5 years, or 3-5 years instead of 4-6 years, or whatever.
M1 is a year older and always will be. Folks buying an M1 MBP today will be living with a year older tech for the life of the box as opposed to and M2, and the M1 will EOL a year sooner. E.g. one reason I will be upgrading is because the 2016 MBP that I bought in 2017 (saving ~$1k) can not take Ventura, whereas 2017 MBPs can still take Ventura. EOL a year sooner, and the 2017 MBP versus 2016 MBP was a simple speed bump difference.
Ok. So everyone stop buying M1 Pro and M1 Max computers then. It makes ZERO sense to do so according to this logic.
Generally yes. If M2 boxes are imminent (like I am guessing M2 MBPs and Minis are, now estimating Q1 2023) and M1 boxes have minimal discounting then it makes sense to wait if feasible to do so. By waiting one can either achieve substantive discounting on M1 (unlike now) or buy the more current M2 tech with a year longer life in it.
The critical caveat of course is the if feasible part. Note that what may be imminent is another guessing game; I did not say it was easy. Also note that upgrading of M1 Studios is definitely not imminent, so there should be no "everyone stop buying M1 Pro and M1 Max" Studios.
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Or it means that the broadly stated goal of completing the transition in about 2 years has been affected by the ********* events of the last two years and recent delays in TSMC’s ramp up on their new N3 process which is still in preproduction testing. There is not some big countdown clock where a ball drops and we all walk out and buy a Dell because the Mac Pro hasn’t shipped yet.
Think you made a wise purchase. If I offered you a $1000 to not use the latest OS I'm sure you'd take it.
If you look at how much you'll spend on tech over the rest of your lifetime, buying last year's model is a smart way to go. When tech makes a big leap forward (to say the M1 chip) then it is wise to spend on the new.
But I'm very likely going to buy a 2021 M1 because I know it's going to be good for a long time.
Did you actually listen to the call? Again, they did not say that any decline is related to M2 enthusiasm — it would be related to the yoy comparison to the M1 Pro/Max MBP from Q1 2022. They won’t be releasing the M2 Pro/Max this quarter — possibly into Q2 2023. The bump in Mac sales last quarter was related to the M2 Air — so clearly there is not a lack of excitement over the M2.
Mac Revenue to 'Decline Substantially' Year Over Year in December Quarter
Mac revenue is set to take a significant hit in the first fiscal quarter of 2023, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said during today's earnings call....www.macrumors.com
I already have a lifetime of buying tech, and no, buying last year's model usually is not a smart way to go. Only when discounting is very significant (like my ~$1,000 savings in 2017) is buying last year's model a smart way to go. Most often the situation is like M1 right now, where any savings are typically a couple of hundred dollars; meh.
Any new purchase whether old or new will be asked to cope with future apps, OSs and workflows for the next 3-6 future years. Folks using newer tech can better deal with all those future apps, OSs and workflows; for the entire life of the box they will be a year ahead.
Note I do not suggest not buying M1, and I may personally do so. I just say analyze carefully, planning for future needs. Finances of course enter in too, so it may be more cost effective for future apps, OSs and workflows to put limited funds into more RAM and SSD capacity, necessitating an older less pricey box so one can afford RAM/SSD costs.
That said, the cost of RAM & SSDs always goes down over time and/or gets faster. A newer box might or might not reflect that benefit just in a single generation, but over longer term the differences are huge.
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While this held true for the most part in the past, the combination of inflation and the slower advancement of chip improvements would suggest this will change going forward. Apple recently had to agree to higher pricing for future processors from TSMC. This combined with inflation will likely suggest a higher initial list price next year for any new M2/M3 system. I am expecting a 5-10% price increase on the M2 Macbooks over the M1 initial list price. Add in the 15% Refurb discount on the M1 Macbook and that could translate to a 25% difference.
Based on the initial comment from TSMC they are suggesting an ~20% performance improvement from the 3nm process. Assuming the M2 Macbook Pro is built on this new process, would the new systems be worth the difference in price? It doesn't look like anything else is changing except for the processor.
I think this will be the norm going forward. It is getting much harder and more expensive to move to a new node. Also, the gains are becoming less and less with each iteration. I think the deals on older models will become more enticing in the coming months and years.
But we don’t know the timeline. It’s all rumors and speculation. It could be this month or next year. Why wait? The RTX 5080 is coming, should I now wait on the 4080 cards? Something new is always coming.
Yeah, sure, not outdated. It is APPLE! It is different. It's not your stinking PC, it's an Apple. Though it might turn itno orange. Because this *secretive* fruity business likes to *surprise* it's customers. I've got surprised once already, when I'd bought an Intel MBP 15', for the full amount, just to find out a month later that what I've got is an outdated piece of sh, technology. But it's different! It's Apple! You don't understand! There's no M2 Mac Mini! It might b e not released for another 2 years! It's Apple! Fanboys rejoice! Air is not Mini, yup, it's the same thing as Mini, just with the screen attached. Maybe you're not a very technical person and don't get it, that's fine. But I've been in IT for more than 2 decades and can figure out when someone is selling an outdated piece of tech.
Uh, no a Mac mini is not a MacBook Air without a screen. Its a different chassis, power supply, fan etc. Please don't talk like you know me. I have been in the IT industry for 3 decades now. I am very technical
Just get a MacBook Air then an use it clamshell. Since you know, it is the same as a Mini.
Mac mini is NOT OUTDATED. There is no M2 Mac mini. Only rumors suggest it will be updated "soon" and there is no timeline on "soon". Again, this is like saying the RTX 4080 is outdated because the 5080 is coming out "soon".
You are acting like the M2 has 100% performance improvements over M1. That UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, you should NEVER EVER EVER get M1 now since it is "outdated". Yeah sure, its outdated alright. Tell Apple to remove the M1 Mac mini from their stores. Nobody will buy that outdated "piece of crap".
By this logic now the M1 Pro and M1 Max 14" and 16" laptop are already "outdated". So yeah, let's tell Apple to discontinue their Pro laptops. Again, the M2 variants will be releasing "soon" but we don't have exact dates. I would have no issues buying an M1 Max today.
Same with the Mac Studio. M2 Ultra is on the way! That is out of date too!!!
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1) It is not a straight line, but both RAM and mass storage (currently SSDs) have gotten faster and/or less expensive annually since the very first Mac. That trend is extremely unlikely to reverse.
2) Inflation is not relevant to this analysis, as it impacts everything similarly: old boxes, new boxes, etc.
3) Although 15-20% better performance is quite a big deal over the 3-6 year life of a box, improvements are not simply about benchmark performance. Engineers spend tens of thousands of hours implementing all kinds improvements every year. Plus specific standards like WiFi, USB, HDMI, etc. may get upgraded. On a laptop, for instance, I would consider WiFi6E a large value add over M1 MBPs if M2 MBPs get WiFi6E as expected.
4) Deals on older models will be what they are when they happen. I see no reason to forecast that we will be seeing better old-tech deals; certainly right now there are not any deals on topped-out M1 MBPs like the one I got in 2016.
This site has been full of the challenges in the supply chain since COVID. Why would you ignore that in order to jump to the conclusion you have?
Plain-Jane M2 chips have been on the street in MBAs and in 13" MBPs for months now. My partner has an M2 MBP and it is a good box. Therefore plain-Jane M1 Minis are outdated because M2 chips do exist on the street in multiple products.
Since M2 Pro/Max chips are not yet on the street you are correct to say M1 Pro/Max boxes are not yet out of date.