Well, we have to assume that Apple already has a roadmap for all products extending at least as far as the next six years and probably closer to ten.
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Gurman: Apple Vision Pro 2 at Least 18 Months Away
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Well, we have to assume that Apple already has a roadmap for all products extending at least as far as the next six years and probably closer to ten.
OTOH if these stock market (and not tech) analysts are making these often wrong statements, it simply means one of the two things -
1. Either they are manipulating stocks for whoever is trying to gain by planting these stories.
2. Or Apple themselves are trying to gain using these analysts as tools.
Or it could be both on per case basis. There is no way a stock market analyst would get his nose into tech predictions without any ulterior motive. My source is the 2016 classic Money Monster of course.
Another stark way of putting it that occurred to me was the entire Quest 3 is the same price as just the AppleCare for the AVP.
Money Monster! That was an interesting film, but little more than a thriller.
OTOH the world could end tomorrow too, but seriously, I understand where people on here are coming from. However, for most of them, their understanding of the topic and mechanisms is quite limited and they reduce everything to simplest denominator -analysts by the nature of the job are on the take and doing what their masters order them to do. Bad actors aside, that is just not true.
It is similar to my presence here. I am not a developer or a coder and I don't earn my living from them. I am an enthusiast who probably has more knowledge than most who are not in the business. I learn a lot from people here. I often disagree with things said here, but it usually is because what is being said does not make business or strategic or finance sense. I don't happen to think I know more about the pure tech, developing, coding, etc. than people who make a living doing it.
In any business, especially those with large sums of money at stake, there will be corruption. There are always those who think they are smarter than everyone else. Those people are usually dumber than most of the people they run up against so there is no denying that there are analysts, traders, investment bankers, etc. that will attempt to acquire ill gotten gains. Sometimes they succeed. Most often they do not. They usually betray themselves or someone else does.
My view and opinion comes from 25 years of experience in capital funding, securities trading, underwriting and seven additional years on the floor of the NYSE. BTW, I dislike the analyst profession in general and think very few of them are worth what they make. The more public they are and the more they have at stake by being known outside of the investment and securities business the less confidence I have in them.
It's more likely that it's 18 months away from end of life/discontinuation lol. Probably the most terrible product they've released since the Newton. Absolutely no demand for a product like this in its current form due to technological limitations.
Vision os and the streaming apps and movies is the difference and something meta will be hard pressed to do. A fork of android makes it hard for them to anywhere near Apple on software/hardware integration. Just a cheaper way to view movies and videos as we’ve seen on avp is highly appealing. If Apple can just manage that on a 1500-2k headset with 4k hdr they got a winner.
Apples main competitor will be Google/Samsung. Not Facebook. Think of Facebook as blackberry right now as Google and Apple crush them in this space over the next decade.
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HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
If that's the goal of this cheaper target- watching movies & videos- I'd encourage XReal. It can do that well and is the "regular glasses" form factor...
The reason to buy any goggles from Apple must be for more than watching movies & videos. Else, and IMO, I don't see the reason to pay $3500 or $1500 for the hypothetical cheaper Vision for that "simple" benefit. XReal Air 2 Pro or Quest for the win IMO. If Visor actually ships, it looks quite great for that purpose too (and also promises 4K).
Note that I'm not one of these extremist Vpro pessimists. Instead, I'm quite positive on it... but for what it can do beyond watching video content. If that's the bulk of my interest, those 2-3 and other options are quite good for that.
The reason to buy any goggles from Apple must be for more than watching movies & videos. Else, and IMO, I don't see the reason to pay $3500 or $1500 for the hypothetical cheaper Vision for that "simple" benefit. XReal Air 2 Pro or Quest for the win IMO. If Visor actually ships, it looks quite great for that purpose too (and also promises 4K).
Note that I'm not one of these extremist Vpro pessimists. Instead, I'm quite positive on it... but for what it can do beyond watching video content. If that's the bulk of my interest, those 2-3 and other options are quite good for that.
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I read the Visor FAQ with some interest until I got to the part where they explain that the device ships with your fixed IPD.
No sharing, no resale. No, thank you.
I think both analysts and consultants get a terrible rep but its partly because most people have had an interaction with one of them who was a scumbag and even in general its very hard for an outsider to understand what they actually do.
They are known to be good with Presentations and Spreadsheets but most of the time they fail to deliver on what they project or promise to deliver. Its kind of like weather forecasting.
Apple Vision Pro 2 is 18 months away, but the cheaper Apple Vision and Apple Vision Plus are only 9 months away
They won’t. A lot of the people here waiting for the second. gen are going to be really disappointed when it still has some of the same issues.
I'm going to put my two cents in, in two parts.
What's In It For Me?
Like with every other new product class, I think conversation is a bit premature. Hindsight is always 20/20, and foresight is anywhere between that and legal blindness.
The only thing I can say with confidence is that all VR/MR/AR is about 50 years behind the point where I'd care enough to go out and get one.
Sure I've been an Apple fanboy since 1979, but I am not a first mover by any means. I can see a number of practical uses for where this technology can be in the future, but I only see one or two practical uses for it now—neither of which suits me, and even if they did, I can't wear the things due the nature of my eyesight problems.
By the time the technology gets to where I need it to be, I won't be here.
What's In It For Everyone Else
This is where I think VR/AR/MR has a potential to be the killer app to end all killer apps, but not in its current form factor.
Apple's bread and butter has been convenience. iTunes Music Store is the ultimate example of this:
When I wrote my thesis on internet distribution of music, Napster wasn't even a twinkle in Shawn Fanning's eye. iTunes didn't exist. But Apple's solution seven years later wasn't to complain about it. They just set about figuring out how to compete with free.
The solution was to make it idiotically easy to use. That's where VR/AR/MR has to get to... it's not there. It won't be there in ten years. Maybe 20. AppleTV has been around 20 years and it's still losing money.
But the question is: What's the elephant gun. The killer app has to be something everyone uses, or does. That's something I don't think we'll see in VR/AR/MR for at least 50 years.
The VR/AR/MR ecosystem just isn't anywhere near that nexus of ubiquity that phones were at in 2007 (it's currently about 1.4% the size of the phone market in 2007).
So I'm just not going to talk about AVP in practical terms because I think we'll be into the v-double digits before we start seeing it become the juggernaut that iPhone was. I will, however, talk about it in more abstract terms, here and elsewhere. To that end, I think the killer app is going to be no-click purchasing.
Someone recently referenced Steve Jobs' famous quotation of Gretzky talking about skating to where the puck is going to be. But everyone in VR has tried to do that by hoping people would be lured away from reality and into the meta/whateververse. That isn't working.
There's a quote Jobs cherishes far more than the Gretzky one. His idol Alan Kay said, "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." Imagine for a second that the puck isn't the future, the goalpost is, the puck is the consumer, and you're the skater trying to push the puck into the future. But people aren't pucks. So, what do you do?
You move the goalpost to the puck. And that's where no-click purchasing comes in. Everyone from Zuckerberg on down thinks that the holy grail is moving people to the metaverse when it's the other way around. No-click purchasing is that thing... When you can make AR easier to use than reality, when you can give me superpowers I can use in the real world, that's when this thing will be of real, practical use.
"It's not the thing. It's the thing that gets you to the thing." - Joe Macmillan
What's In It For Me?
Like with every other new product class, I think conversation is a bit premature. Hindsight is always 20/20, and foresight is anywhere between that and legal blindness.
The only thing I can say with confidence is that all VR/MR/AR is about 50 years behind the point where I'd care enough to go out and get one.
Sure I've been an Apple fanboy since 1979, but I am not a first mover by any means. I can see a number of practical uses for where this technology can be in the future, but I only see one or two practical uses for it now—neither of which suits me, and even if they did, I can't wear the things due the nature of my eyesight problems.
By the time the technology gets to where I need it to be, I won't be here.
What's In It For Everyone Else
This is where I think VR/AR/MR has a potential to be the killer app to end all killer apps, but not in its current form factor.
Apple's bread and butter has been convenience. iTunes Music Store is the ultimate example of this:
When I wrote my thesis on internet distribution of music, Napster wasn't even a twinkle in Shawn Fanning's eye. iTunes didn't exist. But Apple's solution seven years later wasn't to complain about it. They just set about figuring out how to compete with free.
The solution was to make it idiotically easy to use. That's where VR/AR/MR has to get to... it's not there. It won't be there in ten years. Maybe 20. AppleTV has been around 20 years and it's still losing money.
But the question is: What's the elephant gun. The killer app has to be something everyone uses, or does. That's something I don't think we'll see in VR/AR/MR for at least 50 years.
The VR/AR/MR ecosystem just isn't anywhere near that nexus of ubiquity that phones were at in 2007 (it's currently about 1.4% the size of the phone market in 2007).
So I'm just not going to talk about AVP in practical terms because I think we'll be into the v-double digits before we start seeing it become the juggernaut that iPhone was. I will, however, talk about it in more abstract terms, here and elsewhere. To that end, I think the killer app is going to be no-click purchasing.
Someone recently referenced Steve Jobs' famous quotation of Gretzky talking about skating to where the puck is going to be. But everyone in VR has tried to do that by hoping people would be lured away from reality and into the meta/whateververse. That isn't working.
There's a quote Jobs cherishes far more than the Gretzky one. His idol Alan Kay said, "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." Imagine for a second that the puck isn't the future, the goalpost is, the puck is the consumer, and you're the skater trying to push the puck into the future. But people aren't pucks. So, what do you do?
You move the goalpost to the puck. And that's where no-click purchasing comes in. Everyone from Zuckerberg on down thinks that the holy grail is moving people to the metaverse when it's the other way around. No-click purchasing is that thing... When you can make AR easier to use than reality, when you can give me superpowers I can use in the real world, that's when this thing will be of real, practical use.
"It's not the thing. It's the thing that gets you to the thing." - Joe Macmillan
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It could be much longer than that. Leaks coming out from inside Apple are saying wait for version 4 before it becomes a refined product... expected to come out around 2030. If 2030 is version 4, it's going to be longer than an 18 month cycle. Closer to 2 years, one in 2026, 2028, and 2030.
I think the premium price force Apple to refreshing more like every 2-3 year but it’s only my guts.
Anyway, I’m old enough to remember the story with the very first iPhone: a bit chunky, small memory and definitely overpriced. So I guess wait in this case for second or even third generation seems to be more than reasonable.
Anyway, I’m old enough to remember the story with the very first iPhone: a bit chunky, small memory and definitely overpriced. So I guess wait in this case for second or even third generation seems to be more than reasonable.
I don't think anyone believes the first version is the end version. Of course it'll be discontinued... as soon as the next one comes out, which will be smaller, lighter, cheaper, and more feature packed. Like all technology is. Google's problem with Google Glass is they can't stick with anything without canceling it without notice, though there's word the Google Glass will be making a return. The list of their canceled products and services after one iteration is quite long. Apple's, not quite as long. I can only think of Newton and Ping. Microsoft has their HoloLens that costs more than the Vision Pro, but nobody's heard from them for an eternity on the subject. Meta is playing cartoon world trying the bottom up approach while Apple is doing the top down approach: show what's possible on a grand scale and then pare it down for the masses.
They know they're playing a long game. It's been said that the company that figures out the next generation of computing will control the market. Apple, Meta, and Google want to be that player. Apple's not going to give up after a single iteration.
AVP 2. Tim's not retiring until he gets his legacy. This is his legacy, not the Apple Watch.
Specifically, his legacy is making Steve Jobs vision for Apple Vision a reality. After that, he's charged with finding a new innovator to take over.
I’ve seen a few in the wild at my college campus. I really wish ppl would stop speaking their opinions as fact. You might not demand it but others do.
I actually want this to succeed simply for all the complaints about a product that people didn’t buy. It’s hilarious
Plenty of stories all over the media a week ago. Just do a web search on “leaks Apple Vision Pro version 4”. Take your pick.
