Gurman: Apple Vision Pro 2 at Least 18 Months Away

[zakarhino]

Adam Lisagor on Gruber's podcast mentioned watchOS 2.0 was practically a reinvention of watchOS and the same will happen for visionOS. I think we won't see visionOS 2.0 at WWDC this year, maybe they will wait for WWDC 2025 before unveiling major changes to visionOS alongside gen 2 of AVP.

 

[ipedro]

Also, there's no need for an annual update to the headset. I would much rather see fewer updates with bigger jumps in technology than more frequent ones with smaller advances in the specs. Besides, apple knows consumers can get upgrade fatigue so they have to give people a compelling reason to open their wallets. It's part of the reason why apple is seeing its customers use their iphones longer rather than upgrading every year or even every other year.

Early on in a new product category, it's ripe for low hanging fruit of improvements. There are so many things to work on, that year over year updates are easy pickings. We saw this most recently with the Apple Watch where every new update was a leap ahead of the previous year, until it matured and improvements became iterative. Honestly, the iPhone itself could easily go to a 2 year cycle but that won't happen until it's no longer the star of the company – which might be a while. Recall that the iPod was a massive hit that made Apple a pop culture icon, and it of course had annual updates but eventually it ceded the spotlight and got an update every few years until it was discontinued.

I could see weight improvements with electronics and sensor miniaturization and consolidation year over year, shaving size and weight each year like they did with the iPhone. Definitely processor updates with the M3 or M4 in Gen 2, gaining both speed and energy efficiency.

 

[svish]

Will not be surprised if it takes even longer to launch. The first gen will be launching in various countries at different time periods this year. So very possible that the next gen is in 2026

 

[Sarafay]

WHO will buy a Gen1 in summer 2025 with M2 and all Macs offer M4 with AI?

 

[Sarafay]

In my opinion Tim is wrong. The Next Big Thing will be AI. VP will be niche with less turnover than AirPods Pro. Imagine you can talk with people all over the world in their language in real time. That’s big big thing. Not that toy. Tim you have to use VP for at least 4h pd to make a statement the next 2 years.

 

[tobybrut]

In my opinion Tim is wrong. The Next Big Thing will be AI. VP will be niche with less turnover than AirPods Pro. Imagine you can talk with people all over the world in their language in real time. That’s big big thing. Not that toy. Tim you have to use VP for at least 4h pd to make a statement the next 2 years.

Both will be big in the future. The difference is everyone will have their own flavor of AI and it won’t be anything special for anyone. The Vision Pro, on the other hand, is setting the stage for the next generation of computers. Whoever figures out the right combination of hardware and software will be the dominant player in computing for decades to come as a version of Vision Pro years from now may replace all of your devices from your computer to your phone, tablet, and Apple TV.

AI will be big but no single company will benefit. In fact a lot of people will lose their jobs when companies find out AI can replace them for free. White collar workers may end up being scarce in a few years. I’m rather glad I’m retired and won’t have to deal with AI replacing me, though I worry for my kids.

With spatial computing/VR/AR/whatever you call it, one company will dominate the landscape. This is MS-DOS and then Windows dominating computing with everyone else a bit player. That is why Tim is pushing so hard for AVP. Apple is also working on AI, having bought 30 AI companies last year, more than any other company, so it’s not like Apple is ignoring it. I expect WWDC this year will be interesting. As a company, they can juggle two balls at the same time.

 

[Sarafay]

Both will be big in the future. The difference is everyone will have their own flavor of AI and it won’t be anything special for anyone. The Vision Pro, on the other hand, is setting the stage for the next generation of computers. Whoever figures out the right combination of hardware and software will be the dominant player in computing for decades to come as a version of Vision Pro years from now may replace all of your devices from your computer to your phone, tablet, and Apple TV.

AI will be big but no single company will benefit. In fact a lot of people will lose their jobs when companies find out AI can replace them for free. White collar workers may end up being scarce in a few years. I’m rather glad I’m retired and won’t have to deal with AI replacing me, though I worry for my kids.

With spatial computing/VR/AR/whatever you call it, one company will dominate the landscape. This is MS-DOS and then Windows dominating computing with everyone else a bit player. That is why Tim is pushing so hard for AVP. Apple is also working on AI, having bought 30 AI companies last year, more than any other company, so it’s not like Apple is ignoring it. I expect WWDC this year will be interesting. As a company, they can juggle two balls at the same time.

Tim always talked about AR and now we see a heavy MR asocial monster whatever. This is not future that is beta. But you are right with your points in general. AR and AI will be great partners.

 

[Wanted797]

I’m guessing Apple has seen massive returns, and will see a steady decline in purchases with overall flat numbers going into the next 12-18 months. They will need to make a market adjustment to a more affordable device if they want mass adaptation. Otherwise this will be a niche product adored by a small % of Apple faithful and ultimately abandoned if they keep the same strategy.

You realise this is how business works?

Invest capital on something they think they can sell. Sell version 1, it’s expensive so they can recoup the costs. Early adopters/people with the money buy it which gives Apple more capital to improve the tech and lower the prices.

 

[Mr_Ed]

You realise this is how business works?

Invest capital on something they think they can sell. Sell version 1, it’s expensive so they can recoup the costs. Early adopters/people with the money buy it which gives Apple more capital to improve the tech and lower the prices.

I’m just not sure this applies in the case of AVP. A $2.8 trillion corp. does not need the capital from the profit generated by a few hundred thousand units of an expensive BOM device in order to improve the tech.

 

[Col4bin]

I mean we had stories on 1-2 iPhones from the future before the new one goes on sale in the past so no big deal there.

This is a rumors site.

The iPhone is already pretty well established and sells millions of units worldwide. Reading the feedback and reasons why people are returning their AVP’s, there’s both software and hardware issues for Apple to improve on and overcome that could take years due to technological and cost-related hurdles.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

You realise this is how business works?

Invest capital on something they think they can sell. Sell version 1, it’s expensive so they can recoup the costs. Early adopters/people with the money buy it which gives Apple more capital to improve the tech and lower the prices.

Got it. Sooo same thing they did with the HomePod 😂

 

[GrayFlannel]

So what are the main reasons for returns (besides those who wanted to give it a try but never intended to buy it in the first place)? I read that some people just didn’t think they’d use it, but there must be other, more specific reasons.

I suspect the number of people who bought without intention to keep it is very low because if it lived up to the hype they would not have returned it. They wanted it to be a game changers as billed but were unconvinced.

So the vast majority of them fold into the group who feel the product does not justify the price they paid for what it delivers. They might like aspect of it, but would not use it enough.

My prediction all along was that Apple Vision was not a productivity tool but Apple tried to brand it as one.

 

[nt5672]

What? There are 3 versions of the se lol

All of which have been killed off.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Adam Lisagor on Gruber's podcast

I'd forgotten about John's excruciatingly long, rambling, podcast

The "talk" show..
Small talk, blabbering talk, rambling on and on with little coherent direction talk..

Man oh man, I do not miss listening to that.
I sort of can't believe I did for so many years

 

[UltimaKilo]

Early on in a new product category, it's ripe for low hanging fruit of improvements. There are so many things to work on, that year over year updates are easy pickings. We saw this most recently with the Apple Watch where every new update was a leap ahead of the previous year, until it matured and improvements became iterative. Honestly, the iPhone itself could easily go to a 2 year cycle but that won't happen until it's no longer the star of the company – which might be a while. Recall that the iPod was a massive hit that made Apple a pop culture icon, and it of course had annual updates but eventually it ceded the spotlight and got an update every few years until it was discontinued.

I could see weight improvements with electronics and sensor miniaturization and consolidation year over year, shaving size and weight each year like they did with the iPhone. Definitely processor updates with the M3 or M4 in Gen 2, gaining both speed and energy efficiency.

Except, the tech won’t be there for a major update in a year. They can squeeze a better refresh rate, slightly larger FOV and (unlikely) a lighter headset in 2025 with a revamped OS, but we are still 2-4 years away from any meaningful upgrade based on the pipeline for the tech.

 

[zakarhino]

I'd forgotten about John's excruciatingly long, rambling, podcast

The "talk" show..
Small talk, blabbering talk, rambling on and on with little coherent direction talk..

Man oh man, I do not miss listening to that.
I sort of can't believe I did for so many years

First time listening to it and Gruber takes a while to get his point across lol. It was mostly defending the indefensible ("uhh it doesn't need a good software keyboard because it has dictation" ???)

 

[turbineseaplane]

It was mostly defending the indefensible

Could be the tagline for his entire show and blog

 

[DownUnderDan]

Dear God. Another trillion articles about a device, most will never want to own.

 

[Avatar74]

In my opinion Tim is wrong. The Next Big Thing will be AI. VP will be niche with less turnover than AirPods Pro. Imagine you can talk with people all over the world in their language in real time. That’s big big thing. Not that toy. Tim you have to use VP for at least 4h pd to make a statement the next 2 years.

I'm a little closer to this than most. While I do agree that AI will play a role in the next big thing, current "AI" falls well short of actually being artificial intelligence.

We are probably 50 years or so away from where AVP will have a killer app, and that killer app will be no-click purchasing just in the same fashion that one-click purchasing built Apple's 21st century empire.

Apple's 3 trillion dollar valuation is built on making things so idiotically convenient that free can't even compete.

What do I mean by "no-click purchasing" and where does AI fit into this... I mean a pair of regular eyeglasses fitted with AVP-enabled lenses that, when you see something you want and say "I want that" will identify the product, the manufacturer, the optimal retail outlet, and generate an order with sizing, billing and shipping information, at the snap of a finger.

The next generation of chipsets are going to have larger and larger AI capabilities, building off some of the R&D that's happening right now in accelerated computing. Technologically, we're almost there... but the things that have to be solved for are cost, size, form factor, etc., and judging from how long it took to put the firepower of an ASCI Red in your pocket, we are at minimum 25 years away from solving the firepower problem, but the leap in battery miniaturization and sandwiching ALL the tech of the AVP into a lens blank that can be cut to fit any eyeglass frame, is another 25 years away, in part because climate change is going to slow down many of the raw materials supply chains relevant to each of these developments.

And that's just a "Simple AI" implementation... actual autonomous, goal seeking programs that can define their own purpose, anticipate needs and execute tasks to make using MR more convenient than reality, is much farther off.

 

[UK-MacAddict]

I don't think anyone believes the first version is the end version. Of course it'll be discontinued... as soon as the next one comes out, which will be smaller, lighter, cheaper, and more feature packed. Like all technology is. Google's problem with Google Glass is they can't stick with anything without canceling it without notice, though there's word the Google Glass will be making a return. The list of their canceled products and services after one iteration is quite long. Apple's, not quite as long. I can only think of Newton and Ping. Microsoft has their HoloLens that costs more than the Vision Pro, but nobody's heard from them for an eternity on the subject. Meta is playing cartoon world trying the bottom up approach while Apple is doing the top down approach: show what's possible on a grand scale and then pare it down for the masses.

They know they're playing a long game. It's been said that the company that figures out the next generation of computing will control the market. Apple, Meta, and Google want to be that player. Apple's not going to give up after a single iteration.

Only when it's either a contact lens or a normal standard pair of glasses with like a heads up kind of display you see on BMW's will this technology work. Doesn't matter what software or anything they do. Nobody will wear something like this on their head for hours on end everyday.

 

[UK-MacAddict]

I’ve seen a few in the wild at my college campus. I really wish ppl would stop speaking their opinions as fact. You might not demand it but others do.

I actually want this to succeed simply for all the complaints about a product that people didn’t buy. It’s hilarious

Smart people know not to waste time and throw their money in the bin purchasing a product that will be dead in 2-3 years. The technology to make AR work, Apple can call it spatial computing but its AR, is simply not there. It's never going to work unless they figure out how to put this in someone eyeball and have no equipment physically worn by the user. So it's not going to happen in the next 100 years at least.

 

[scorpio vega]

All of which have been killed off.

You aren’t making sense. Apple literally is selling the iPhone SE for $429 as well as the iPhone 13. They didn’t kill the first two se. The first gen was sold for like 3 years and then the second gen came and both were discontinued for the next. The se 4 is coming 2025.

So I don’t think you actually know what you’re talking about lol

 

[scorpio vega]

Smart people know not to waste time and throw their money in the bin purchasing a product that will be dead in 2-3 years. The technology to make AR work, Apple can call it spatial computing but its AR, is simply not there. It's never going to work unless they figure out how to put this in someone eyeball and have no equipment physically worn by the user. So it's not going to happen in the next 100 years at least.

Again it’s not your place to tell someone what to do with their Money or give this faux elitism/superiority.

If you don’t want to buy the product that’s YOUR CHOICE but to act smug about how others choose to spend their Money is ridiculous lol.

I personally think smart watches are ridiculous and I hate the idea of smart cars. I also accept that I am obviously not the demographic and I don’t criticize or judge anyone who buys them.

Beautiful thing that is. Minding the business that pays me.

Translation: I don’t spend time criticizing or feeling holier than thou over others choice of purchase

 

[usasalazar]

All the returns are from the “influencers” who made their unboxing videos and never intended to keep it. 🤡

 

[UK-MacAddict]

Again it’s not your place to tell someone what to do with their Money or give this faux elitism/superiority.

If you don’t want to buy the product that’s YOUR CHOICE but to act smug about how others choose to spend their Money is ridiculous lol.

I personally think smart watches are ridiculous and I hate the idea of smart cars. I also accept that I am obviously not the demographic and I don’t criticize or judge anyone who buys them.

Beautiful thing that is. Minding the business that pays me.

Translation: I don’t spend time criticizing or feeling holier than thou over others choice of purchase

When did I dictate how someone spends their money? I did not. They can spend their money on whatever they like. But I can freely call them mugs for doing so because that is an opinion.

If someone doesn't like my opinion then move on, they don't have to listen or respond.