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While it’s not a “problem” just yet, the next Apple TV is going to need the AV1 hardware decoder. It’s worth the wait. I suspect that requirement is working against a low price-point right now.
THIS. For those of you who believe it doesn’t need a hardware update, I am eagerly waiting for AV1 support. It seems like M3 is the minimum to decode AV1. This alone speaks against the rumoured low price point for the new Apple TV.
 
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That is a classic.

I can make all sorts of predictions too:

  1. There will be no new rockets to the moon, unless a space-faring nation previews one.
  2. There will be no new Atari game consoles, unless Warner Brothers Games unexpectedly announces one.
  3. There will be no new flavor of Progresso soup, unless General Mills unexpectedly announces one.
  4. <fill in your own example here>
I never understood these "analysts"

A couple have made names for themselves by "predicting" Apple's next move and yet are often so wide of the mark.... they are making stuff up.

Sure they have 'insider' info from various sources and sometimes what they say is close to what comes to pass....

But to take their word with such faith is a nonsense.

And you are quite right - his statement is just pointless and dare I say attention seeking... we all hang off his every word except its clear hes making it up as he goes along.
 
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The latest gen Apple TV 4K really doesn't need any hardware updates. When I first heard about this rumour, I was thinking it was dubious at best. I could imagine Apple TV one day introducing advanced features like using HomePods for surround sound (more than 2 speakers at once), but that would probably require new HomePod updates first.
It needs full spec HDMI2.1. Its partial implementation is due to current limited hardware in use. We need (the previously promised) HFR 120hz mode so that HDMI handshaking can be all but removed. Or at the least, drastically reduce the time it takes. We’d finally be able to set ATV to Dolby Vision 120hz for all modes. Then all content could play properly frame timed. 24/30/60 fps.
 
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And so why is that? What games do you think it’ll have? Literally a handful of decent premium games run on the M chip, all the rest are the usual freemium shovelware in the App Store. Hardly the quality and quantity a proper games console has.
Well, duh, nobody is going to develop high performance games for an Apple TV until there is high performance hardware to support it. That would change. There are 32 million Apple TVs plugged into home TVs.
 
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Well, duh, nobody is going to develop high performance games for an Apple TV until there is high performance hardware to support it. That would change. There are 32 million Apple TVs plugged into home TVs.

No, no one is going to develop high performance games full stop! And that’s a fact, Apple is not the best company when it comes to games, it throws the odd bone of hope out here and there that never materialises to anything behind the App Store, and the endless freemium games. Don’t go expecting the next Resident Evil or Sony other ones on Apple devices anytime soon. And no 32 million people are not going to upgrade to the latest models just for an M chip. Valve has ditched them now due to their block on 32 bit apps.

Games consoles will still lead Apple my miles as gaming platforms.
 
Well, duh, nobody is going to develop high performance games for an Apple TV until there is high performance hardware to support it. That would change. There are 32 million Apple TVs plugged into home TVs.

Agreed.

No, no one is going to develop high performance games full stop! And that’s a fact, Apple is not the best company when it comes to games, it throws the odd bone of hope out here and there that never materialises to anything behind the App Store, and the endless freemium games. Don’t go expecting the next Resident Evil or Sony other ones on Apple devices anytime soon. And no 32 million people are not going to upgrade to the latest models just for an M chip. Valve has ditched them now due to their block on 32 bit apps.

Games consoles will still lead Apple my miles as gaming platforms.
I mean the likes of Resident Evil and Death Stranding are already on your iPhone, iPad and Macs so there is no reason not to think that they’ll eventually make their way to the ATV.

Perhaps you should be a bit more open minded to the notion rather being so dismissive about it. The more places that people can game the better.
 
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Agreed.


I mean the likes of Resident Evil and Death Stranding are already on your iPhone, iPad and Macs so there is no reason not to think that they’ll eventually make their way to the ATV.

Perhaps you should be a bit more open minded to the notion rather being so dismissive about it. The more places that people can game the better.

I am realising the facts based on Apples history with games. Maybe ’those’ games may make it across, but that’s 2 and in no way portrays sim explosion in developers suddenly making AAA games for the Apple TV. This is an argument that’s been discussed to death over the years and it has never materialised. By all means believe that they will introduce an Apple TV with the M4 chip in it, double its price and game devs will be brining all their games over to it if it helps you sleep at night, don’t be too disappointed when it never happens.
 
And Nvidia won’t make a new Shield TV, they have actually made several new Tegra chips over the years that are suitable replacements and they’ve never used them to upgrade it, also the chip in the new Nintendo Switch is a custom part for Nintendo, it doesn’t need DLSS and ray tracing to run Netflix. Nvidia is all about game streaming now now making a small Apple TV competitor that can play games well. I would except Nvidia to cancel the Shield TV soon if anything.
That's why I think they will make a new Shield. Once they start mass producing whatever custom variant of Tegra the Switch 2 will have, Nvidia will suddenly find themselves in the happy situation of the cost per chip going way down. Nintendo sold, on average, 20 million Switches a year. So it's not just Nintendo that benefits from economy of scale, Nvidia will too. Shield was always a bit niche, but why wouldn't you make a new one if you're going to be making a hundred million of the new chip anyway. Which will nip at Apple's heels, making it a perfect time to smoke that Tegra chip. Apple likes staying far ahead of the pack in real world performance.
 
Me too

I just don't even really want all this "my computing device kind of sort of helps me do things" stuff

It creates weird outputs that need checking anyways and it's really just creating additional work
Spellcheck has gotten significantly worse for me after it was "improved." So much so that I've found it easier to dictate notes, messages, etc. using the microphone button on the keyboard. Which ironically works far better than dictating messages using Siri. I hope they don't "improve" the microphone button. 😉
 
Yeah; usually at the WWDC they announce the new operating system versions, though once in a while they'd install a new hardware product, but I was already half-expecting there to be no hardware announcements at this year's WWDC.
 
It needs full spec HDMI2.1. Its partial implementation is due to current limited hardware in use. We need (the previously promised) HFR 120hz mode so that HDMI handshaking can be all but removed. Or at the least, drastically reduce the time it takes. We’d finally be able to set ATV to Dolby Vision 120hz for all modes. Then all content could play properly frame timed. 24/30/60 fps.

Would that get rid of the black screen as it switches to match FPS mode with the content?

(maybe newer ones already don't do that? It's the one thing I don't like with my 2017 ATV4Ks)
 
No, no one is going to develop high performance games full stop! And that’s a fact, Apple is not the best company when it comes to games, it throws the odd bone of hope out here and there that never materialises to anything behind the App Store, and the endless freemium games. Don’t go expecting the next Resident Evil or Sony other ones on Apple devices anytime soon. And no 32 million people are not going to upgrade to the latest models just for an M chip. Valve has ditched them now due to their block on 32 bit apps.

Games consoles will still lead Apple my miles as gaming platforms.
Since Apple devices now share a common development platform there could come a point where developers decide this is a better business model for them. Not saying that will happen soon, but it could happen.
 
This sums up the last 10 or so years of Apple keynotes.

It's a good point - I agree
I can barely make it through them anymore

At least live ones had a feel of "who knows, something interesting might happen" ... and you were watching something live and scripted, but still live and performed. There was a human authenticity to that.

Just "playing a pre-recorded AD" for everyone is such a sad change to me
 
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That's why I think they will make a new Shield. Once they start mass producing whatever custom variant of Tegra the Switch 2 will have, Nvidia will suddenly find themselves in the happy situation of the cost per chip going way down. Nintendo sold, on average, 20 million Switches a year. So it's not just Nintendo that benefits from economy of scale, Nvidia will too. Shield was always a bit niche, but why wouldn't you make a new one if you're going to be making a hundred million of the new chip anyway. Which will nip at Apple's heels, making it a perfect time to smoke that Tegra chip. Apple likes staying far ahead of the pack in real world performance.

Nope sorry, Nvidia is making most of its money in A.I. hardware these days. The Switch chip is made as it’ll most likely sell incredibly well in the Switch 2. But Nvidia isn’t going to waste time and resources designing a new Shield TV for the incredibly small market that will buy it. People have been asking about this for years now. As I said they have had several new Tegra chips all perfectly capable to be put in a new Shield TV and not one has been used.
 
Since Apple devices now share a common development platform there could come a point where developers decide this is a better business model for them. Not saying that will happen soon, but it could happen.

Ae will have to see, but so far hardly anyone has taken any interest. I think a few have been stung before and won’t go back to Apples platforms.
 
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why not just buy a Mac mini at that point.

That would be a Mac (the point is to not have one)

A tvOS/iOS/iPadOS device is where Apple continues to go

Also, a Mac Mini doesn't have Front Row or anything like the ATV interface

The combo nature of the device, with entertainment being the main focus, is the whole jam here
 
Bummer
There goes my outside hope for the iPad Mini 7, some M4 MacBooks or an updated Apple TV

Sounds like a entire presentation about "AI stuff coming later this year"
👎

Major "meh" for me

So many product lines are just in really weird spots of "not much has happened in a long time"
Apple seems to have really screwed the pooch with Car & VR headset distractions and now trying to throw an AI hail mary

WWDC is almost never a hardware event. I'm not sure why everyone thinks it is. It's a software event mostly for software developers.
 
The only reasons Apple TV hardware would need to be updated is AI or gaming (or maybe AV1, but has Apple committed to that?).

So I guess tvOS is mostly going to be excluded from an major AI push, at least for now.

And does the lack of a new Apple TV portend that the (eventual) gaming push for visionOS is not going to happen for version 2.0?

I suppose the inefficiencies of the current A17 production means that a cheap $99 Apple TV will have to wait.
 
This just gets worse and worse for the pro market. It’s getting laughable at this point that MacBooks will get M4 before the studio and Pro.
 
Apple photoshopped the M1 and M2 Max die photos. M3 Max may not have it this time because it is a 'short term' solution. Doing an Ultra (or even worse bigger package) on every single iteration doesn't make economic sense at all. Apple doesn't do the amount of volume where they can toss that class of package into the trash can every 12-14 months. Nobody else does even at substantially higher volumes.
Sounds like we're in agreement. No M3 Ultra.
This is leaping to "end of 2025" conclusion that isn't well supported. Just because Apple isn't going to do a M4 Ultra real soon doesn't mean it will then be a long as possible. WWDC 2025 is likely late. The orginal Studio launched in March. The bigger lack of rational reason is why Apple would tie the Ultra SoC to WWDC in any year. There is about zero rational reason for that.
I also increasingly find Gurman's predictions to be pretty non-specific, sounds like we agree that his nether end of 2025 assessment makes little sense for a has-been chip to release. I think the part that got skipped here is that Apple has been accelerating its M-series releases, each chip release is coming faster than the previous one. It has nothing to do with being tied to WWDC, but about the acceleration of these releases, potentially toward an eventual annual release schedule, and Apple just happens to have an early Q3/Summer event where they sometimes announce new hardware: WWDC. So it makes sense, if they have the chips ready, to release M4 Studios and possibly M4 Pros either at WWDC or sometime this summer.
The whole "most powerful machines" is a bit skewed perspective. Apple sell about 75 (if not 80) % laptops. If they have a M4 Max in a MBP 16" in Q4 2024 then Apple won't shed any tears at getting higher economies of scale selling more laptop panel than the would have
That's a big part of why the release of Max/Ultra on desktops would be a reasonable move to get some more revenue flowing in during Q3 as well as building anticipation for M4 through the remainder of the year going into a wider autumn release of M4 laptops. If the desktops don't sell as many units and have a higher profit margin compared to laptops, putting out the desktops while chip yields are still being ramped up allows the technology to be making Apple money earlier in the cycle as they prepare for the much wider release of the chip on laptops several months later.
Apple M-series tie RAM capacity to the package size. Can wave hand at "two generations old" M2 , but if the working set data size is > than a smaller die M4 package ... the "newer' silicon in the M4 isn't going to make up the difference if it cannot hold the data in RAM. Similar with internal SSD size... plain Mn can't address as much SSD as the larger dies. So folks who require a larger native drive; M(n+1 or n+2) doesn't do much because doesn't meet a necessary criteria. ( M2 MP can also have more than one Internal SSD which the rest of line up can't. Mn+2 isn't going to make a difference if no radical change in chassis the SoC goes into. )
I'm sure you know more about what you mean here than I do, but my assumption would be that Apple's hardware engineers take all easily foreseeable (and probably a lot of not very obvious) internal capacities and complexities into account during the earliest design phases, in order to avoid missteps wherever possible that might cause basic incompatibilities or slowdowns. It would seem to be an expensive mistake to get this far down the line in development of M4 lineup without having solved things like making sure all the variations scale to the rest of the hardware used.
 
Although... if Apple can debut the M4 in an iPad well before a Mac (or maybe Apple will surprise everyone and debut an A5 for the Mac this autumn), why wouldn't Apple introduce a surprise A18 now?

What if Apple brands 2 M-series and 2 A-series chips at the same time?
 
WWDC is almost never a hardware event. I'm not sure why everyone thinks it is. It's a software event mostly for software developers.
Sometimes it is, sometimes it's not. Someone was listing years with hardware earlier in the thread.
  • 2003 Power Mac G5
  • 2004 Aluminum Cinema Displays
  • 2006 Mac Pro (intel)
  • 2008 iPhone 3G
  • 2009 iPhone 3GS
  • 2010 iPhone 4
  • 2012 MBpro 15”
  • 2013 Mac Pro (trash can)
  • 2017 HomePod and iMac Pro
  • 2019 Mac Pro and Pro Display XDR (and the revolutionary $1000 monitor stand!!!)
  • 2022 MBair M2 and MBpro M2 13”
  • 2023 Vpro and MBair 15” and Mac Studio & Pro with M2 Ultra
 
That’s the handshake issue. Depending on how they would implement, it could be made to go away.

It sounds silly, but I would upgrade just to get rid of that

I want my content to be displayed/matched correctly, but I hate the handshake/black screen as it switches
 
Sometimes it is, sometimes it's not. Someone was listing years with hardware earlier in the thread.

That's more than half of the WWDC's in the past 20 years with a hardware release. That's not "almost never". 🤔

WWDC always presents software updates (they don't come at any other time, after all), but if hardware is released at a majority of them, it's reasonable to expect it on a semi-regular basis.
 
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