Gurman: Redesigned MacBook Air Delayed to Second Half of 2022, No New High-End MacBook Pro Likely Until Next Year

[JPack]

Seems like a matter of time before Gurman reports M1 MacBook Air.

He was fired up about the M2 MacBook Pro until recently.

With the 18-24 month cycle for Apple Silicon, I don't think anyone was seriously expecting a MacBook Pro refresh until 2023.

 

[EugW]

Guessing that there just won’t be an M1 pro version of the mini, it would likely be too close to the $1999 studios price that Apple wouldn’t see a viable market for it. The only way I could see it in the mini is if Apple have enough binned versions to justify a cut down M1 Pro, say with 10 or 12 gpu cores.

No, a hypothetical M1 Pro Mac mini would also have both a 16 GB and 32 GB RAM option (just like the MacBook Pros), meaning pricing would be much, much cheaper than the Mac Studio.

And yes I suspect there would be binned M1 Pros (again just like the MacBook Pros). I'd be more than happy to buy a Mac mini with 16 GB RAM and M1 Pro 8-core CPU / 14-core GPU. (I think you may be underestimating TSMC's yields if you think Apple needs to resort to M1 Pros with 10 GPU cores.)

 

[Benjamin Nabulsi]

seems like an October event. glad I got myself a MacBook Pro, will downgrade after the reviews.
with studio camera issue makes early adopters second question pre orders.

 

[Bug-Creator]

meaning pricing would be much, much cheaper than the Mac Studio.

Sure, but with the same BTO steps and prices we see on other products it would either bump against a BTO M1 Mini or the base Studio.

Remember 16/512GB Mini to base Studio is just 900$.

 

[EugW]

Sure, but with the same BTO steps and prices we see on other products it would either bump against a BTO M1 Mini or the base Studio.

Remember 16/512GB Mini to base Studio is just 900$.

Uh what? JUST? You are crazy to use that word "just".

That's literally a price increase of "just" 82%, or almost twice as much.

I'd envision a 16/512 GB Mini with M1 Pro 8/14 would be $1299. That's still a whopping $700 less than Mac Studio, meaning going to the Studio would necessitate spending 54% more. Once you go to M1 Pro 10/16 and 32 GB, that gets awfully close to Mac Studio, so that would entice people to spend a couple of hundred more for the upsell to Mac Studio. But an upsell of an additional $700 from 16/512 M1 Pro 8/14 is not going to work for most people who don't need those extras.

 

[StupidOpinion]

once all the redesigns are up and selling, is there any possibility that apple will just update ALL the chips on a yearly basis like what they did with iphone chips?

also, does anyone think that apple will get stuck when it comes to performance upgrades after the M3? i heard that M3 was going to be 3nm and that going below 3nm was reaching the physical limits.

 

[Realityck]

Apple has seemingly delayed the launch of the redesigned MacBook Air until later this year, and will likely not launch new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro models until 2023, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.

Nothing new, repeating his same assumptions over and over.

 

[James Godfrey]

This is my guess and opinion… so far we have had rumours of a new Air getting M2, which was initially meant to launch at the end of 2021, then early 2022, now the spring event has come and gone it’s now late 2022.

BUT… what we have also had is a change from M2 being launched in the new redesigned Air to now it being M1 (according to Kuo, and this was double confirmed with 9to5 in a private convo).

So I have a feeling that firstly Apple feels the M1 branding is selling extremely well, they probably don’t feel at this stage it is necessary to launch M2 just yet so that will most likely be left until 2023 at this stage… so now we have the question of when is Apple likely to launch the redesigned MBA…

Looking over the past 6 years of Apple events their spring events have always been late March with the exception of last year when it happened in April, so I have a sneaky suspicion that this year Apple may have a surprise event up their sleeve before WWDC… as we know Apple of recent years have always kept WWDC as a software only event… plus they have said the Mac Pro ‘is for another day’ potentially hinting at another event potentially.

So I have a funny feeling we may see the MBA, Mac Pro and this new miniLED display coming at an event in either April or May… as I think they might be planning to launch their headset in October/November this year and they will want that to to take all of the headlines… it’s just a hunch, I am probably wrong but definitely possible, especially with how easy Apple can knock these events together now.

Let’s be honest for the general user base the last event was extremely meh!

And for no more products to get launched to attack our wallets between now and September means this year is going to p*ss off the shareholders massively IMO…

 

[name99]

EVERYTHING related to the timing of the M2 depends on whether it is
- a SoC based on the A15 (and so, in some sense "late") OR
- a SoC based on the A16 (and so expected to arrive around the September time frame, perhaps a little earlier [doesn't need massive phone volumes], perhaps a little later [at least for now, Apple wants to continue associating the maximum annual SoC drama with the iPhone])

This is what I find weirdest about Gurman (and Kuo), that this is THE most obvious question for a technical person (and even if you're not technical, it informs everything else about timing and capabilities) but they never raise this issue and seem not to care!

 

[EugW]

once all the redesigns are up and selling, is there any possibility that apple will just update ALL the chips on a yearly basis like what they did with iphone chips?

No need for yearly updates for the Macs. Don't count on this happening across the board.

In fact, some pundits are claiming the low end iPhones won't even get a new SoC this year.

also, does anyone think that apple will get stuck when it comes to performance upgrades after the M3? i heard that M3 was going to be 3nm and that going below 3nm was reaching the physical limits.

Yes, no, maybe so.

ie. We don't know.

 

[Marshall73]

Uh what? JUST? You are crazy to use that word "just".

That's literally a price increase of "just" 82%, or almost twice as much.

I'd envision a 16/512 GB Mini with M1 Pro 8/14 would be $1299. That's still a whopping $700 less than Mac Studio, meaning going to the Studio would necessitate spending 54% more. Once you go to M1 Pro 10/16 and 32 GB, that gets awfully close to Mac Studio, so that would entice people to spend a couple of hundred more for the upsell to Mac Studio. But an upsell of an additional $700 from 16/512 M1 Pro 8/14 is not going to work for most people who don't need those extras.

It’s Apple, an M1 Pro mini 16GB would likely start at $1399-1599 as it would require a tweaked PSU and cooling with 32GB taking it to $1799-1999. Too close to the studio. Maybe next time they update the mini?

 

[EugW]

It’s Apple, an M1 Pro mini 16GB would likely start at $1399-1599 as it would require a tweaked PSU and cooling with 32GB taking it to $1799-1999. Too close to the studio. Maybe next time they update the mini?

I say $1299, you say $1399. How is that close to a $1999 Studio?

And there's no way a binned M1 Pro 8/14 with 16 GB would be $1599. That's far too high.

 

[Marshall73]

I say $1299, you say $1399. How is that close to a $1999 mini?

Add 400 to take the ram to 32gb. takes it right up to the studio. It’s close enough Apple won’t see the market for them to retool the mini. They also won’t devalue the M1 Pro by putting it in the mini ar 1299

same reason really why the keep a gulf between the 13” MacBook Pro and the 14” MacBook Pro.

 

[Bug-Creator]

I'd envision a 16/512 GB Mini with M1 Pro 8/14 would be $1299.

I'd envision someone will tell me next weeks Lotto number in advance...

Neither of us knows for sure what will happen but a 200$ upsell is both very small (IMO) for a 16/512 Mini to exist while at the same time making the Pro Mini pointless when BTOed to the higher end.

We could just as well talk about the huge gap between a full Max 64/1TB Studio and the base Ultra at 1200$ and how Apple should offer something in between.

I still think Apple will just spread out the binning of the M2 to the point where the 900$ gap goes down to 500$ and call it a day. Maybe even not offering an M2Pro at all. We will see when we will see.

 

[name99]

This is my guess and opinion… so far we have had rumours of a new Air getting M2, which was initially meant to launch at the end of 2021, then early 2022, now the spring event has come and gone it’s now late 2022.

BUT… what we have also had is a change from M2 being launched in the new redesigned Air to now it being M1 (according to Kuo, and this was double confirmed with 9to5 in a private convo).

So I have a feeling that firstly Apple feels the M1 branding is selling extremely well, they probably don’t feel at this stage it is necessary to launch M2 just yet so that will most likely be left until 2023 at this stage… so now we have the question of when is Apple likely to launch the redesigned MBA…

Looking over the past 6 years of Apple events their spring events have always been late March with the exception of last year when it happened in April, so I have a sneaky suspicion that this year Apple may have a surprise event up their sleeve before WWDC… as we know Apple of recent years have always kept WWDC as a software only event… plus they have said the Mac Pro ‘is for another day’ potentially hinting at another event potentially.

So I have a funny feeling we may see the MBA, Mac Pro and this new miniLED display coming at an event in either April or May… as I think they might be planning to launch their headset in October/November this year and they will want that to to take all of the headlines… it’s just a hunch, I am probably wrong but definitely possible, especially with how easy Apple can knock these events together now.

Let’s be honest for the general user base the last event was extremely meh!

And for no more products to get launched to attack our wallets between now and September means this year is going to p*ss off the shareholders massively IMO…

There are good technical reasons for assuming that
- the A16 is a technical reset (in the same way that the A11 was a technical reset -- it bumped CPU width from 6 to 8, it gave us clusters of P and E cores, and many similar internal large changes)
- the M2 then is based on the A16 and is a similar technical reset
- and if so then it may make sense for Apple to talk about the M2 at WWDC, at least in the context of SVE and what it implies for developers.

So I could see a scenario where Apple talks about M2 and SVE at WWDC (equivalent of announcing both the PPC to Intel, and Intel to AS transitions) along with the same "we'll have systems you can buy in three to four months, including a Mac Pro" sort of story.

 

[Mac Fly (film)]

Possibly… but according to 9to5 he insisted he believes it coming with an M1… which makes me think it’s going to come earlier than Mark Gurman believes.

Thanks for the update. What does an updating version of M1 mean? M2? Strange wording.

 

[James Godfrey]

Thanks for the update. What does an updating version of M1 mean? M2? Strange wording.

Could be like an A12X - A12Z sort of upgrade possibly… maybe M1X will exist

 

[ThisBougieLife]

No, a hypothetical M1 Pro Mac mini would also have both a 16 GB and 32 GB RAM option (just like the MacBook Pros), meaning pricing would be much, much cheaper than the Mac Studio.

And yes I suspect there would be binned M1 Pros (again just like the MacBook Pros). I'd be more than happy to buy a Mac mini with 16 GB RAM and M1 Pro 8-core CPU / 14-core GPU. (I think you may be underestimating TSMC's yields if you think Apple needs to resort to M1 Pros with 10 GPU cores.)

Personally, I'd like to see an M1 Pro option in the 24" iMac as well. I'm not sure why, as of yet, Apple doesn't think the M1 Pro belongs in a desktop.

 

[EugW]

Add 400 to take the ram to 32gb. takes it right up to the studio. It’s close enough Apple won’t see the market for them to retool the mini. They also won’t devalue the M1 Pro by putting it in the mini ar 1299

Your logic makes no sense. You're suggesting they can't have a $1299 16 GB M1 Pro because a $1699 32 GB M1 Pro costs too much, because the 32 GB model is too close to the Mac Studio.

Err... what?

Anyhow, $1699 would be perfect pricing for an M1 Pro 32 GB Mac mini, precisely because it's close to Mac Studio. At that point it's prime for the upsell.

BTW, as it stands now, you can't even get 32 GB in a Mac mini anyway. So, the only way to get that is either to go with M1 Pro, or presumably M2.

same reason really why the keep a gulf between the 13” MacBook Pro and the 14” MacBook Pro.

Except that the 14" MacBook Pro has M1 Pro. There are also many other upgrades going from the 13" to the 14" MBP.

 

[name99]

I'd envision someone will tell me next weeks Lotto number in advance...

Neither of us knows for sure what will happen but a 200$ upsell is both very small (IMO) for a 16/512 Mini to exist while at the same time making the Pro Mini pointless when BTOed to the higher end.

We could just as well talk about the huge gap between a full Max 64/1TB Studio and the base Ultra at 1200$ and how Apple should offer something in between.

I still think Apple will just spread out the binning of the M2 to the point where the 900$ gap goes down to 500$ and call it a day. Maybe even not offering an M2Pro at all. We will see when we will see.

An alternative way these things work out (who knows?) is that Apple allow the mac product lines to go cheaper by following the original iPhone strategy: move mini, MBA, iMac to M2, but retain the M1 versions at $100 to $200 cheaper?

(Personally I think binning is VASTLY overrated in importance. It's easier, and technically makes more sense, for Apple to give the cheap end of the market last year's chips than to obsess over which chips can run 50MHz higher than which other chips, the way Intel does.)

 

[Adelphos33]

For most tasks asked of it, the M1 MBA is frankly overpowered, right? Not sure what an M2 would even add at this point

 

[ajfahey]

...Or this is an artifact of the global chip shortage & pandemic.

Even more likely is that personal computer tech i

It's called Mac Studio

No, it isn’t. There is a Goldilocks space need for an entry level prosumer Mini with an M1-Pro with TB support for 2+ monitors and 16-32 GB of RAM that starts at under $1200. The Studio more professional market computer.

 

[Bug-Creator]

maybe M1X will exist

The M1X spec leaked 1.5 years ago are identical to what was released as M1Pro.
They said Ultra is the last M1 chip.
Adding more cores would require a redesign, why not just use the newer core (making it an M2)
A12x vs. A12z was about enabling cores that exist in both chips but were binned out before.

 

[Student of Life]

I say $1299, you say $1399. How is that close to a $1999 Studio?

And there's no way a binned M1 Pro 8/14 with 16 GB would be $1599. That's far too high.

After seeing the price of the new display which is the same old tech (with a new camera that might or might not work well) going for 1599, I think that price might be more inline with what Apple would charge.

 

[EugW]

An alternative way these things work out (who knows?) is that Apple allow the mac product lines to go cheaper by following the original iPhone strategy: move mini, MBA, iMac to M2, but retain the M1 versions at $100 to $200 cheaper?

(Personally I think binning is VASTLY overrated in importance. It's easier, and technically makes more sense, for Apple to give the cheap end of the market last year's chips than to obsess over which chips can run 50MHz higher than which other chips, the way Intel does.)

Why do you think binning is vastly overrated? Apple has done it, so it's clear they had reasons for it. Somehow I strongly suspect those reasons are not just limited to marketing.