Hollywood Producers Say 'Intrusive' Apple Executives and 'Lack of Clarity' Impeding Original Content Efforts

[LordVic]

You ignored everything I said except revenue, so I’m done with you.

Revenue means people like the products, period. Again, a few examples of bent iPads doesn’t impress me. Apple ships 300M units of product annually and you expect 100% perfection? Do the math on a .01% failure rate of 300M devices.

But even you know that Revenue today does NOT guarantee revenue tomorrow. That's why trends are important and numbers outside of revenue are also important to look at.

Mac Sales have been trending down. They're now at the same levels as 2010. iPhone flattened in volumes over the last 4 quarters, with the last quarter in particular having 9 million less units sold. the question is, is this a start of a trend? or just the new normal and things will stabilize?

I have doubts about the current leadership. But I wont get into depth about it. If you're a shorter term stock trader, you'll love what hes done. If you're looking for the long term, 10-20 years? there's serious doubt that Apple's been put in a position to succeed for that long term.

either way, it's a great business studies case to watch unfold live

 

[Baymowe335]

But even you know that Revenue today does NOT guarantee revenue tomorrow. That's why trends are important and numbers outside of revenue are also important to look at.

Mac Sales have been trending down. They're now at the same levels as 2010. iPhone flattened in volumes over the last 4 quarters, with the last quarter in particular having 9 million less units sold. the question is, is this a start of a trend? or just the new normal and things will stabilize?

I have doubts about the current leadership. But I wont get into depth about it. If you're a shorter term stock trader, you'll love what hes done. If you're looking for the long term, 10-20 years? there's serious doubt that Apple's been put in a position to succeed for that long term.

either way, it's a great business studies case to watch unfold live

What are the revenue trends? 2018 closed with $266B, up from $233B the prior year.

Revenue mix shifts. Did you consider the non-iphone business is growing at 17% and is now over $100B? Services are part of that and growing at 20+%? Or the wearables business growing at 50%.

Mac just set record revenues, in Q12019. Unit growth is less important for established products like Mac and iPhone because Apple is pivoting to a services model. It's also not as though the installed base is leaving. They are just not upgrading their hardware as often, and Apple has done fine as a result. The installed based grew 100M units in just 12 months to 1.4B devices and iPhone installed based grew to 900M.

Remember, slower unit growth can and does mean the installed base continues to grow. We saw it happen when they increased 100M units with flat unit sales growth.

 

[LordVic]

What are the revenue trends? 2018 closed with $266B, up from $233B the prior year.

Revenue mix shifts. Did you consider the non-iphone business is growing at 17% and is now over $100B? Services are part of that and growing at 20+%? Or the wearables business growing at 50%.

Mac just set record revenues, in Q12019. Unit growth is less important for established products like Mac and iPhone because Apple is pivoting to a services model. It's also not as though the installed base is leaving. They are just not upgrading their hardware as often, and Apple has done fine as a result. The installed based grew 100M units in just 12 months to 1.4B devices and iPhone installed based grew to 900M.

Remember, slower unit growth can and does mean the installed base continues to grow. We saw it happen when they increased 100M units with flat unit sales growth.

again, your problem is you only are looking at revenue as the whole picture and not the ancilliary numbers. if you're an investor, than fine, revenue is all that matters especially if you're actively trading.

If you're looking for long term stability and growth, than no, revenue isn't the only set of numbers you should be looking at.

Mac set "record revenues" in Q12019 while being one of the lowest volume quarters. What does this evidence? if you ignore one number to make a claim about the other, than you're missing the forest for the trees

a High revenue quarter, with decreasing volumes indicates that a price raise has occured to make up for the revenues loss by lowered sales. The question is, why were those volumes lower? Was it pricing too high? Products no longer offering sufficient value? a declining trend of users going elsewhere for variety of reasons? I'm not going to armchair which exactly, but the evidence itself is there. Revenues went up on significant decrease in volume.

Non-iPhone business growing is good for long term growth, the question is,what are you considering "non-iPhone" business. For example, if you're including "accessories" in non-iPhone business, you'd be wrong, as several accessories are not usable without an iPhone (Apple Watch, HomePod are example). Service revenues are also highly tied to iOS device usage. if Apple's iPhones sold 20% less volume next year, is it also believable that revenues in service will take a hit, since many of those services are again, tied directly to the iPhone sales and volumes.

you tend to look at the financials as everything, and often miss diving into why those financials are that way. Management of business, decisiosn, often take quarters, if not years to bear fruition. Actions taken 2-3 years ago are what's hitting the financials today. And actions today may not yield evidence in financials until 2-3 years from now. saying tht "the future is up and bright because the financials today are perfect" is so surface level investing that I won't even touch further on it.

 

[Baymowe335]

again, your problem is you only are looking at revenue as the whole picture and not the ancilliary numbers. if you're an investor, than fine, revenue is all that matters especially if you're actively trading.

If you're looking for long term stability and growth, than no, revenue isn't the only set of numbers you should be looking at.

Mac set "record revenues" in Q12019 while being one of the lowest volume quarters. What does this evidence? If you ignore one number to make a claim about the other, than you're missing the forest for the trees.

a High revenue quarter, with decreasing volumes indicates that a price raise has occured to make up for the revenues loss by lowered sales. The question is, why were those volumes lower? Was it pricing too high? Products no longer offering sufficient value? a declining trend of users going elsewhere for variety of reasons? I'm not going to armchair which exactly, but the evidence itself is there. Revenues went up on significant decrease in volume.

Non-iPhone business growing is good for long term growth, the question is,what are you considering "non-iPhone" business. For example, if you're including "accessories" in non-iPhone business, you'd be wrong, as several accessories are not usable without an iPhone (Apple Watch, HomePod are example). Service revenues are also highly tied to iOS device usage. if Apple's iPhones sold 20% less volume next year, is it also believable that revenues in service will take a hit, since many of those services are again, tied directly to the iPhone sales and volumes.

you tend to look at the financials as everything, and often miss diving into why those financials are that way. Management of business, decisiosn, often take quarters, if not years to bear fruition. Actions taken 2-3 years ago are what's hitting the financials today. And actions today may not yield evidence in financials until 2-3 years from now. saying tht "the future is up and bright because the financials today are perfect" is so surface level investing that I won't even touch further on it.

I am fully aware of unit sales for Mac, iPad, and iPhone. I actually know all the numbers. I've read the entire 10-k multiple times, for years because I've owned shares for years.

As an investor, I think focusing on units sales of established product lines is a missing the larger picture. Whether or not people upgrade the hardware for mature products like Mac and iPhone is a secondary story with a larger services business and growth in newer product lines like Watch, AirPods, services, and opportunities in new fields like health.

Let me show you the last 3 years of unit sales for their most mature product lines: Mac, iPad, and iPhone:

Mac:
18M
19M
18M

iPad:
20M
19M
19M

iPhone:
212M
217M
218M

If you step back, you see those are mature product lines selling within 5% of each other the last 3 years. Am I sounding alarm bells for Mac bc their unit sales are down 5% y/y? Apple is correctly using pricing power to extract more value where they can. Users are paying for their machines because they see the value.

Again, switching customers matter. For the numbers we have, Apple grew the installed base by 100M units from 1.3B to 1.4B in just 12 months. That means that switching isn't happening at any meaningful rate and the units they sell are adding to that installed base being leveraged for services revenue. Flat unit sales growth or even declines still add to the overall installed base, as the numbers show.

With healthy growth in new product lines, I am just simply not as concerned about unit sales growth for established lines which are still putting up strong numbers from a unit perspective and growth from a revenue perspective. Products don't grow forever and Apple is CORRECTLY raising prices on mature lines, because they have pricing power to do so.

Wringing your hands about small declines or flat unit growth in those products is, to me, the definition of missing the Apple story. It's why I own the shares.