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Nice breakdown of current hurricanes

Dude! That's my local weatherman. How'd you find that?

I don't want to alarm our Florida friends but the new track looks bad. It's shifted West and both models go right up the peninsula. The GFS tracks over Orlando. The European goes closer to Tampa.

I'm more concerned that it does like so many before it and continues turning west so that it comes out in the gulf.
 
Braves sorry for playing 'Rock you like a hurricane’ during Miami game

A day that began with the Atlanta Braves making a generous gesture toward those displaced by Hurricane Irma subsequently featured an apology by the team for an insensitive gesture toward the same people.

During a home game Thursday against the Miami Marlins, the team played “Rock You Like a Hurricane,” a 1984 hit by the Scorpions that has attained enduring popularity but the usage of which, particularly given the opponent, was deemed inappropriate by many observers.

According to the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer, a Braves official apologized for the song, saying that it was on the team’s regular playlist but should have been pulled. The official added that the song would not be used again during the series.

Hours before the game, the Braves announced that “all Florida residents” who traveled to the Atlanta area during the four-game series against the Marlins would be eligible to receive free tickets. The invitation extended to “residents of the Georgia and South Carolina counties under evacuation orders” ahead of the arrival of Irma on U.S. soil.
 
And that sure changed! Now it is coming almost right at us. :(

Yeah, a really major western movement, up towards Tampa. Now it's looking like we'll have an overland at the center when it reaches us, but at a significantly reduced category (TS - Cat 1)

Where are you located?
 
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Keep safe everyone. Cities have mandatory evacuation like port charlotte. Hope everything is doing okay!
 
My Dad lives in Winterhaven, Florida, center of the State at 185' elevation so he's not worried about storm surge, but possible winds. He lives in a 500' flood plain, but no rivers or creeks nearby. However there are lakes around and honestly I don't know if the area has a drainage system set up to deal with lakes that fill up with rain water and overflow. Hopefully by the time the storm reaches North Central Florida, it will be downgraded to a storm. He plans on staying in town.

You should be able to get some idea of what may happen there if you look at a topo map, right. At least for watershed purposes. Spillage from a lake still runs downhill... hope your dad's place will be okay with the winds, can he shelter in a basement for the storm proper?
 
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You should be able to get some idea of what may happen there if you look at a topo map, right. At least for watershed purposes. Spillage from a lake still runs downhill... hope your dad's place will be okay with the winds, can he shelter in a basement for the storm proper?
Unfortunately no, but a recent model (he said) showed the winds projected to be about 75 mph there when it passes. Unlike Harvery, it will make a huge difference, if it keeps moving instead of hanging around drowning everyone.

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Yeah, a really major western movement, up towards Tampa. Now it's looking like we'll have an overland at the center when it reaches us, but at a significantly reduced category (TS - Cat 1)

Where are you located?
I saw a scary graphic that showed all of the land on the West side of Tampa Bay flooding.
 
I thought these hurricanes were more dangerous when it came to slowing down due to flooding, whereas you can expect wind damage at CAT4-5 speeds and not much water. Well, a lot of water, but not as much as a lazy storm.
 
I have friends who stayed in our complex in SE Naples, 3 miles from the nearest shoreline. I found out this am they are “sticking it out”. Well, I am a nervous wreck- as our storm surge forecast (forget the winds for a moment), is 15 feet up to 15 miles inland. We all have 2 stories, but honestly that may not be enough. The buildings are townhomes, and all concrete block- but I fear that will be not enough.

I don’t even know what else to tell them, it’s too late. It will be hitting naples today, then the surge after the hit. I did see the national guard parked a bunch of Humvee’s a mile from our location in a WalMart parking lot on Collier ave towards Marco. Not sure how they can stay in that Local, but they must know what they are doing.
 
I got out Thursday eve from SE Naples. If I may be selfish for a min on my favorite forum- Please pray for all loved ones, family, friends.

Not at all selfish. All my relatives are down there too. I haven't spoken to anyone yet this morning, though I suspect it's just because they're not looking at their phones.

Still waiting for the northward turn. We're all betting the eye passes over Apalachicola.
 
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I have friends who stayed in our complex in SE Naples, 3 miles from the nearest shoreline. I found out this am they are “sticking it out”. Well, I am a nervous wreck- as our storm surge forecast (forget the winds for a moment), is 15 feet up to 15 miles inland. We all have 2 stories, but honestly that may not be enough. The buildings are townhomes, and all concrete block- but I fear that will be not enough.

I don’t even know what else to tell them, it’s too late. It will be hitting naples today, then the surge after the hit. I did see the national guard parked a bunch of Humvee’s a mile from our location in a WalMart parking lot on Collier ave towards Marco. Not sure how they can stay in that Local, but they must know what they are doing.
Hoping the best for your friends. If they were on the coast, I'd be extremely worried for them, basically few human structures (if any) can withstand storm surge but 3 miles in, I'd be hopeful that at worst they will get water in their first floor. Not to sound critical but "knowing what they are doing" does not really seem to apply. It's a crap shoot as to the outcome if the decision is to stay, but 3 miles in does offer a buffer from storm surge.

I wonder with water rising, from a structural integrity standpoint, if it might not be better to open your Windows and doors so the pressure of the water would not as great on the building?
 
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I thought these hurricanes were more dangerous when it came to slowing down due to flooding, whereas you can expect wind damage at CAT4-5 speeds and not much water. Well, a lot of water, but not as much as a lazy storm.
Storm surge will happen either way. This is a huge storm so the amount of water being moved is huge.
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Hoping the best for your friends. If they were on the coast, I'd be extremely worried for them, basically few human structures (if any) can withstand storm surge but 3 miles in, I'd be hopeful that at worst they will get water in their first floor. Not to sound critical but "knowing what they are doing" does not really seem to apply. It's a crap shoot as to the outcome if the decision is to stay, but 3 miles in does offer a buffer from storm surge.

I wonder with water rising, from a structural integrity standpoint, if it might not be better to open your Windows and doors so the pressure of the water would not as great on the building?
The water will get in either way. Water takes the path of least resistance it will always find an opening.
 
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Please be safe everyone. Sending you all well wishes.

Mom's best friend and her husband did not evacuate from the Keys, so I am hoping they're okay in the shelter. Meanwhile, mom mentioned her friend in Atlanta says Georgians are opening up their homes to Floridians, with tornadoes being the biggest worry.
 
Storm surge will happen either way. This is a huge storm so the amount of water being moved is huge.
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The water will get in either way. Water takes the path of least resistance it will always find an opening.
Yes I was referencing physics as the way to reduce damage to structure, as is seeing get pushed off it's foundation vs something less.
 
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I will just leave this here.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...f1de4b0dfaafcf84e86?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

Hurricane Irma Sucked The Ocean Away From Florida And Bahamas Beaches
This natural phenomenon occurs during extremely powerful storms.
By Carla Herreria

Hurricane Irma is so powerful that it has temporarily sucked the ocean away from beaches in Florida and the Bahamas in recent days.

Twitter user @Piznack, one of multiple people to share videos of the strange scene, tweeted on Saturday: “Y’all my family in the Bahamas said Irma sucked up all the water. There’s literally no water. The beach and ocean are gone.”

He sent out a follow-up video that showed how the water had retreated at a beach in Long Island, Bahamas.

piz @Piznack
Y'all my family in the Bahamas said Irma sucked up all the water. There's literally no water. The beach and ocean are gone

Replying to @Piznack
Long Island, Bahamas: Where's the ocean?
9:11 AM - Sep 9, 2017

On Sunday, the National Weather Service confirmed the phenomenon was also occurring in Naples, Florida. A public information coordinator for Clearwater, Florida, shared videos of the “negative surge” in Tampa Bay.

NWS Miami

✔@NWSMiami

12:00 PM: Negative surge ~3.5 FT at #Naples to become 10-15 FT above ground as #Irma moves in. Life-threatening rapid water rise imminent!
9:14 AM - Sep 10, 2017

Jason Beisel
✔@JasonBeisel

Creepy site - water in Tampa Bay is already being sucked out. This is view from downtown St. Pete waterfront. #HurricaneIrma
9:17 AM - Sep 10, 2017
Angela Fritz, deputy weather editor of The Washington Post, confirmed this phenomenon is real and may occur during extremely powerful hurricanes such as Irma. The storm is so powerful that it can essentially change the shape of the ocean for a time, Fritz wrote.

“Basically, Hurricane Irma is so strong and its pressure is so low, it’s sucking water from its surroundings into the core of the storm,” Fritz wrote.

“In the center of the storm, where there is extreme low pressure, water is drawn upward. Low pressure is basically a sucking mechanism — it sucks the air into it, and when it’s really low, it can change the shape of the surface of the ocean. As the storm draws water toward the center, it gets pulled away from the surroundings.”

Wayne Neely, a forecaster with the Bahamas’ Department of Meteorology, warned residents of Long Island and Exuma, where water had also reportedly receded from the beaches, to be careful as the ocean surged back to high levels.

“Care must be taken in this case because the water often returns with even greater fury,” Neely said in a Facebook post explaining the phenomenon.

Wayne Neely
22 hours ago
Why was the water receding in Long Island and Exuma during Irma? Now about the water receding....that has happened before in acklins in 1936 and this by the way is not a normal phenomena but has happened several times before but it is due to the hurricane. What happened in this case was that the low pressure of the hurricane pushed down on the water in the eye and eye wall of the hurricane which is a low pressure system at at the center of the storm which gives you the high l...See More
People who had seen the water recede in the Bahamas on Friday said the water returned the next day.

Irma ripped through the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean earlier this week and made landfall in Florida on Sunday morning. So far, the storm has killed at least 22 people and displaced thousands more.

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There's video in the link, but bloody hell, that is scary and awesome at the same time (and I despise using the word "awesome", but there is no other way to explain it.

I have the METAR reports from the airport weather stations if anyone wants to see that, let alone the winds. it's sick.

BL.
 
She finally made her northward turn. Now they're closing schools in southern Georgia and central Alabama. I was surprised that all Publix stores were closed. All of them. We were shipping earlier today when they announced they were closing at two and would reopen Monday afternoon. Weird.

My family in Jax is sitting being bored so far. With luck, they won't get much by the time it gets up there. It's the people on the water who are truly in trouble. My brother has sandbagged his store in St. Augustine, but if the water comes, sandbags won't be much use.
 
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