The sheer number of people thinking intel is downplaying the threat and not taking Apple seriously baffles me. At this point intel is in a terrible spot being sieged by AMD and got hammered by Apple silicon. Boosting employee morale would not be a bad call by doing things like that. Do you guys really think Intel is not valuing their opponent seriously behind the scene?
In a sense this is precisely the argument.
For 20 years Intel has claimed and behaved as though x86 were so fantastically valuable that nothing else mattered. (Intel the company, not just its fans.) Nothing else explains such bizarre product designs as Larrabee/Phi or Atom or Quark, all of which were less than they could be because of the decision to use x86.
This was indeed a "not valuing the opposition seriously".
Now, even though Intel the company finally appears to accept that they have serious competition, a second myth has now arisen, no longer "everyone needs x86 for everything" but "ISA just doesn't matter very much; there's nothing wrong with x86 that some hard work and new CPU designs won't fix".
Right now this is the new line being touted by the x86 fans. Obviously I think (on technical grounds) that it's nonsense, that for a variety of reasons x86 is a permanent millstone around Intel's (and AMD's) neck. But my opinion doesn't matter, what matters is Intel's opinion. If Intel swallows this koolaid then, IMHO, we get another five to ten wasted years as they try to attach wings to a blue whale and discover the result is not actually a great flyer.
So the questions that matter are:
- what does INTEL (not me, not you, INTEL) think is the cause of their stumbles over the past ten years. (And will they tell us? Will a Burning Platform or Trustworthy Computing memo leak out?)
- in Gelsinger as a human being, how much does "nostalgia" overcome "rationality". Gelsinger has deep experience at the engineering level with x86. On the plus side, this means he knows something about the product. On the minus side, how much of his experience is tinged with the happiness of twenty years of Intel's glory days from the late 80s onward, with a feeling that "people laughed at x86 then and we showed them; we can do it again"?
When Jobs returned to Apple, the Apple he wanted to preserve was "Give people delightful products" not the Apple of "Mac OS was just great the way we shipped it in 1984, all we need going forward is an update System 7".
Is Gellsinger's vision of Intel "we are defined as 'we make the best CPUs, period'"? Or is it "we make x86 CPUs, period?"
This is, IMHO the only question that matters, but it's also the one that no-one is answering. Making some products at TSMC, taking Apple (and ARM and AMD) seriously; these do not matter. What matters is WHY you think Intel went wrong, because that shapes what you do differently going forward. IMHO an Intel going forward that designs CPUs in the same as today maybe beat AMD, but it won't beat Apple and ARM, regardless of whether it's using TSMC's process and whatever fancy chiplet, EMIB, and Foveros packaging it cares to use.