Intel Apple Laptop In January?

[dernhelm]

All of this sounds pretty good - Apple ahead of schedule by 6 months or more, and possibly dropping Intels into laptop lines as well as consumer desktop lines. Not much to complain about here, right?

But actually, here's my prediction, before Spring (not necessarily MW) Apple will have entirely revamped their laptop lines. iBooks and Powerbooks will converge in form factor, but diverge in their processor lines. iBooks will use Dothan processors, Powerbooks will use Yonah, but both will sport widescreen form factor, and superdrive capabilities. Powerbooks will also be differentiated by use of PCI-Express replacable graphic cards (256MB) and full digital audio capabilities.

The deskop lines are more foggy. I can see the consumer desktops moving LAST, with Intel-based dual-dual PowerMacs being intoduced first, followed by the iMac.

All rumors point to the mini undergoing a bit of a transformation and becoming a livingroom box. If this does happen, I see Apple essentially moving to three seperate lines (well 5 or maybe 6, if you count consumer/professional variants):

Consumer laptop: iBook
Professional laptop: Powerbook
Consumer desktop: iMac
Professional desktop: PowerMac
Consumer Media Center: mini
"Pro-sumer" Media Center: ????

 

[odedia]

For me, the transition is very simple:

All 64-Bit machines, ie the iMac and the Powermac will have to wait for a 64-bit equivalent Intel processor, which will only be avaliable at the end of 2006.

As for the 32-Bit G4, they will ALL be replaced ASAP.

Oded S.

 

[stockscalper]

Apple is getting ready to take a pounding in the laptop market. While they're putting all their eggs in the Yonah (dual core successor to Pentium M) chip, pc laptop makers have announced they'll be coming out with laptops running the same chip. How is Apple going to compete selling laptops at four times what you can get the same chip elsewhere? There has to be more product differentiation in the consumer's eye in order to justify the much higher price tag and according to information released from Apple don't expect the prices for the new machines to be much different. Plus everytime in the past they've switched chips or made substantial platform changes they lose about half of their software developers. They're cooking their own goose by switching to the Intel platform unless they make OS X run on Wintel boxes and allow clones. Then it's a different ballgame.

 

[AidenShaw]

not sure of the logic behind this....

For me, the transition is very simple:

All 64-Bit machines, ie the iMac and the Powermac will have to wait for a 64-bit equivalent Intel processor, which will only be avaliable at the end of 2006.

As for the 32-Bit G4, they will ALL be replaced ASAP.

This might seem to make sense at first, but if you think about it there may be some flaws to the logic here....

PowerMac G5
Today has 64-bit processor, and supports more than 4 GiB of RAM. However, OSX 64-bit support on PPC is very weak (no GUI, no Cocoa, no Carbon) and almost no 64-bit applications exist. With the transition to Intel, Apple is unlikely to do anything to make OSX (PPC) have true 64-bit support - so that's a dead end.

In addition, Apple has said nothing in public about a roadmap for OSx64 (64-bit Intel) - so a 64-bit x64 chip will be completely 32-bit for the foreseeable future. So, you're not really taking advantage of 64-bit today, and there's no way to know what the future will be for OSx64!

iMac G5
Has a 64-bit CPU, but with a max of 2 GiB of RAM you can't even use the main advantage of 64-bit. You can't even use all of 32-bits - this is really a 31-bit machine.

Yonah will support 4 GiB of RAM, so a Yonah iMac could have twice the RAM of the G5 iMac.

Same OSx64 issues as the PM.

G4 systems (iBook, PB, MiniMac)
Seems a wash - 32-bit for 32-bit. But...

But 64-bit x64 chips are faster in 64-bit mode than in 32-bit mode due to changes in the ISA for 64-bit.
________________________

There's the potential of a real advantage to waiting for 64-bit Merom in the 'books and MiniMac - once Apple produces a true 64-bit OSx64, your systems will be faster on 64-bit apps - there's real incentive for apps to be ported to x64 (unlike OSX (PPC), where 64-bit typically will be a bit slower than the same app in 32-bit mode). Microsoft is even dropping the 32-bit versions of some major applications in the Longhorn Server timeframe - if you're running heavyweight apps, it's assumed that it will be on 64-bit x64 running true 64-bit Windows.

The lame OSX (PPC) 64-bit implementation won't help much - since gui/carbon/cocoa apps have to stay 32-bit. (And forget about many major apps being rewritten into 32-bit GUI/64-bit compute engine co-processing apps - Windows 64 is true 64-bit, so the Windows x64 version can get full 64-bit speed without being re-architected.)

If you get the 32-bit Dothan/Yonah systems, you'll never see that "free" (or probably $129) speed bump. On the other hand, the Intel chips will likely be quite a bit faster than the G4 from day 1 (at least on native and fat binary apps)...

By the way, about an earlier comment about running Windows and OSx86 side-by-side - VT will support running 32-bit OSx86 and 64-bit Windows together.... If Apple allowed this, it would pretty much kill native OSx86 support for many apps - why port to OSX when the Windows version runs 20% (or so) faster on the same hardware at the same time?

 

[essereli]

how about Newton reborn....

i wonder if Steve will do some stunning things:
1. A new product line with Intel CPU. And there will be no more PowerBook (as there is no more PowerPC)

2. Bring Newton back (of course with new name) using Intel processor for handheld, with WiFi connectivity

3. the true iPhone

 

[laughingboy]

mini "appliance" first

I think January is early for most Intel based macs, although I'd love to see them across the board backed up by key pro apps being native...

Why I think the mac mini will be the first to go is because it will be a media centre version that will mainly be running Front Row 2.0. This will limit the load on Rosetta technologies etc, because it will sell at a premium and will be targetted at the living room TV.

Slowness, or incompatibility with non-intel applications will be minimized because few people will want to run photoshop on their media centre mac hooked up to their TV.

Just a thought that it may be more of an appliance than an Intel version of the mac.

 

[Epicurus]

All rumors point to the mini undergoing a bit of a transformation and becoming a livingroom box. If this does happen, I see Apple essentially moving to three seperate lines (well 5 or maybe 6, if you count consumer/professional variants):

Consumer laptop: iBook
Professional laptop: Powerbook
Consumer desktop: iMac
Professional desktop: PowerMac
Consumer Media Center: mini
"Pro-sumer" Media Center: ????

My take:

iBook: single core, black or white
PowerBook: dual core, aluminum (possibly darker, thinnner form factor)
iMac: dual core, black or white
PowerMac: dual dual core, aluminum (possibly darker, thinner)
mini: single core, bigger HDD (3.5"), integrated iPod dock (w/ IR remote)

The "Pro-sumer" Media Center might be where the mystery Asteroid/Garageband breakout box comes in. Something along the lines of a mini in terms of size and cost but with a lot more interface plugs, a bigger hard drive, and a more powerful processor (dual core?). If you add in an open PCI slot you've paved the way for DVR functionality.

Offering all the "i" line products (including the iPod) in two colors brings them more in line with each other without having to change much in the way of form factors. Trimming some of the fat off of the "Power" line and giving them a slightly darker tint distinguishes them from their older PPC versions. This is necessary since the PPC versions will probably still be sold right alongside the Intel boxes for some time to come. All the PPC iMacs and iBooks will vanish right away, but legacy PowerMacs will remain.

There's no way Jobs would announce all of these in one day. Its just too much fun to release a new product every other week and keep the rumor mills turning nonstop from Christmas straight through to the WWDC '06.

 

[mdavey]

iBooks and Powerbooks will converge in form factor, but diverge in their processor lines. iBooks will use Dothan processors, Powerbooks will use Yonah

Interesting - I think you are the first to put it exactly like this. Are the Dothan and Yonah pin-compatible? Could Apple offer a laptop in, say, three sizes with the same logic board where the only difference was the type (rather than speed) of processor that was fitted?

 

[mdavey]

iMac G5
Has a 64-bit CPU, but with a max of 2 GiB of RAM you can't even use the main advantage of 64-bit. You can't even use all of 32-bits - this is really a 31-bit machine.

The max is only 2 GiB because it has only got 2 SDRAM slots, right? Just like the max for the Mac mini is 1GiB because there is only one SDRAM slot.

As soon as prices for a 2GiB SDRAM stick fall low enough, Apple will offer it through their stores. At that point, both machines will support double the RAM they do today and customers will be able to choose to buy from Crucial, Kingston, Hynix or any of the other suppliers.

The only risk with this plan is that all the manufacturers jump over to DDR2 or some other emerging standard before the price falls enough thus preventing demand for the appropriate 2GiB stick ever reaching commodity levels.

 

[AidenShaw]

different chipset

Are the Dothan and Yonah pin-compatible? Could Apple offer a laptop in, say, three sizes with the same logic board where the only difference was the type (rather than speed) of processor that was fitted?

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1852853,00.asp

This article says that Yonah needs the new Napa platform (945-series chipsets), not the 915 series that Dothan uses. (Makes sense, because Dothan's chipset wouldn't have dual-core support....)

It also implies that Merom (the 64-bit follow-on to Yonah) can also use the 945 chipset.

Other tidbits:

- Single core Yonah might have the "Celeron" brandname (iGary, you can do that "little thing" here)

- 945 will have "hardware accelerated multi-streaming high definition MPEG-2 playback"

Hmmm, a MiniMacMediaCenter with dual-core, hardware MPEG-2 decoding, CoreImage-capable integrated graphics, ...

 

[AidenShaw]

good points

The max is only 2 GiB because it has only got 2 SDRAM slots, right? Just like the max for the Mac mini is 1GiB because there is only one SDRAM slot.
...
The only risk with this plan is that all the manufacturers jump over to DDR2 or some other emerging standard before the price falls enough thus preventing demand for the appropriate 2GiB stick ever reaching commodity levels.

Good point, and good observation about the risk - since DDR2 is fast becoming the Intel standard (no pun intended). When AMD switches to DDR2, then DDR will be doomed (as far as volume price breaks, that is).

As soon as prices for a 2GiB SDRAM stick fall low enough, Apple will offer it through their stores. At that point, both machines will support double the RAM they do today and customers will be able to choose to buy from Crucial, Kingston, Hynix or any of the other suppliers.

Unclear...

Apple may decide to:
- prevent 2 GiB DIMMs in iMac to avoid competition with PowerMacs
- prevent 2 GiB DIMMs in iMac to push buyers to the new Intel systems

You can't blame Apple for doing what's right by its shareholders, not what's right by its customers.

 

[nagromme]

They may announce that the mini will be first available Intel Mac and demo it, but I guess I'll be surprised if they're shipping anything before the March time frame...

I hope whatever is announced in Jan also SHIPS in Jan, but a month or two later is very possible--so we shouldn't get our hopes up. It will still be nice to KNOW (more) about what's coming. That is, assuming anything Intel is announced

MacTruck...I like your reasoning. If you are right..then NO new IBOOKS or Powerbooks at MWSF. Only the MINI.

Why? The apps still are not ready for PB users. FCP, Photoshop, etc.
(unless ROSETTA is really stable and FAST, which I don't think it is)

Photoshop will be a latecomer--but we've already seen it running in Rosetta, and that's enough for some people's needs. Not all of course. Other pro apps may well be ready sooner--especially Apple's own. But some will not.

This does NOT mean Apple has to wait. Releasing a new PowerBook before certain key apps are running at full speed IS less than ideal, you're right. But sticking with a G4 for months and months--while other laptop brands (which are already often faster then G4s) go dual core and keep getting faster--is ALSO not ideal. The PowerBook line is the line that most needs a CPU boost.

So there IS no "ideal" timing. There will ALWAYS be compromises. This is a big transition. For some it will happen sooner than ideal. For others, later than they'd wish. Apple's good at making big transitions easier for users, but there's only so much that is possible. Apple can't MAKE Photoshop ready sooner, and they can't (in my opinion) keep using G4s in their pro laptops for another year.

Also I haven't heard anything suggesting serious stability problems with Rosetta, and we HAVE heard impressive things about the speed. Full native speed? Hardly. But nothing like VPC sluggishness Even some 3D games apparently play in Rosetta so well you can't tell they're not native. I'd say it's going to vary a lot from app to app. And remember that Yonah has two big things going for it to help compensate: faster cores than the G4... and TWO of them! Rosetta's not ideal, but it IS a very good transitional technology. The biggest problem with it is that some apps would have needed to be patched to remove AltiVec. Supposedly that's no longer the case. AltiVec code may not run at nearly AltiVec speeds, but it will RUN. You'll have your apps and be able to work.

Where will Rosetta fall short the most? In lengthy calculations, I would say. Long video renders. Huge Photoshop filter sequences. 3D animation. Things where a bar used to crawl for 5 minutes... and now maybe it will crawl for 8. But most people with those tasks use a fast desktop for them anyway--not a PowerBook. If they use a PowerBook, they're giving up G5 speed. They can either accept giving up a little MORE speed--temporarily while the apps are converted--or THEY can choose to wait and keep their G4, while other people choose to go Intel sooner. And not every pro NEEDS top speed to stay in business. MANY pros are using less than the latest model because it's cost-effective to keep their machine a couple years. It still does the job. So can Rosetta.

Ideal? No. Not the end of the world, either. "Just keep your G4 then" is actually a pretty reasonable answer, if Motorola continues to be unable to deliver faster chips in volume. That means that the next year of G4s might not BE that much different from keeping what you have now. So be it--and give us the Intel PoweBooks because many people WILL be ready for them now.

And Apple has a simple option to ease the pain: even after Intel PowerBooks, keep selling the current G4 models to people who need them. If your mobile audio studio relies on a G4 laptop, and you'll need to buy another one next year--Apple might just sell it to you! They've quietly kept old and new lines side-by-side several times before--as long as demand is there: G3 iMacs kept selling long after the G4 iMac was out. OS 9 PowerMacs kept selling long after OS X PowerMacs were out. G4 PowerMacs kept selling after G5 PowerMacs were out. The same technique could help serve Mac users with varying needs next year.

So I don't think Apple will wait because of pro apps.

Therefore we may have to face the reality that:

* Some apps on the first Intel PowerBooks will, for months, run somewhat more slowly than on the top G4s--or at least not as fast as they will run later natively

* Other apps, and the OS as a whole, will run MUCH faster

* We'll have a new design and lower power usage

* The transition will end and Photoshop etc. will ultimately run at full speed

* But if the above just doesn't meet your needs, you can keep using G4 during the transition

That may not be a perfect reality--for a time--but it's plenty good enough for me

(Maybe some people will buy a Windows laptop early next year just because some key app is not yet native on Intel Macs, and because they can't tolerate Rosetta during the transition months, and because they don't care about security, privacy, easy maintenance, Tiger, Spotlight, Exposé, and all the other Mac benefits. So be it. Apple can't stop them by staying with the G4. But Apple can offer something great to a lot of other people--like me --and a lot of people will switch TO the Mac because of the long-awaited Intel models.)

 

[SiliconAddict]

2. Bring Newton back (of course with new name) using Intel processor for handheld, with WiFi connectivity

The only way the Newton will come back is:

1. Steve retires.
2. Steve dies.

In either case I'm pretty sure there is a nuke hidden under Apple's HQ that will detonate if it detects a web page on Apple's site with the title "Newton" on it.

 

[AidenShaw]

The only way the Newton will come back is:

1. Steve retires.
2. Steve dies.

3. Steve notices all the R&D investment that Microsoft is putting into Windows Mobile, and comes to his senses

http://www.motorola.com/motoinfo/product/details/0,,113,00.html http://www.audiovox.com/webapp/wcs/...10001&storeId=10001&productId=13758&langId=-1

 

[SiliconAddict]

Apple is getting ready to take a pounding in the laptop market. While they're putting all their eggs in the Yonah (dual core successor to Pentium M) chip, pc laptop makers have announced they'll be coming out with laptops running the same chip. How is Apple going to compete selling laptops at four times what you can get the same chip elsewhere?

Ummm I hate to break this to you bud but Apple's laptops aren't selling NOW because they are the fastest on the market. Do you really think a 2.blahGHz Pentium M is going to be outdone by a 1.67Ghz G4?
Why people buy the iBook and the PowerBook is because of the design, the OS, and the apps. This isn't going to change moving to x86 other then possibly adding speed to the reasons as well.

What I'm about to say is going to stick in the guts of Mac users in a big way. I expect iGary to vomit just a little bit. Windows users are going to buy the x86 PowerBook and run Windows exclusively on them because Apple does make some of the best wares on the planet. So not only is Apple now selling laptops to Mac users but they are selling them to Windows users as well. How is this not a win, win situation for Apple? Watch as the first dual core x86 PowerBook sales fling the gates open and usher in a era of insane Apple hardware sales. You thought first gen G5 PowerMacs and G5 iMacs sold well. . .You ain’t seen nothing yet.

PS- Apple's laptops have NEVER (Strike that. . .I don't know what the first Apple laptops went for but in the past 7 years they have not sold for 4 times the PC counterpart. Don’t know about you but I haven’t seen a $5,000 laptop in a while. At best the price gap is around $300-$700. And I don't know about you but I work around Dell laptops all day long. I'm willing to pay the premium if it means that I'm not going to get zapped on my wrists from a damn Latitude because the damn thing is poorly grounded. POS Dell.

 

[SiliconAddict]

3. Steve notices all the R&D investment that Microsoft is putting into Windows Mobile, and comes to his senses

But but but that requires that Steve admit that he was wrong. Its taken Apple how long to come out with a 2 button mouse and even now its not really a two button mouse but it is but...

Lets leave it at this. . . I'll believe it when the words pass Jobs's lips.

 

[blackcrayon]

i wonder if Steve will do some stunning things:
1. A new product line with Intel CPU. And there will be no more PowerBook (as there is no more PowerPC)

2. Bring Newton back (of course with new name) using Intel processor for handheld, with WiFi connectivity

3. the true iPhone

1. I think this has been mentioned many times before. The Powerbook was a "Power"book long before the PowerPC. I think the Powerbook brand recognition is too good for Apple to junk it just because they're moving to Intel cpus. The question is what will they put after Powerbook... Powerbook G3.. Powerbook G4... Powerbook PM?

 

[nxent]

i'm thinking citigroup is just as in the dark as the rest of us...
nontheless, a couple things to consider... apple just released powerbook upgrades.... will they really release another upgrade/major overhaul after just a couple months? if they upgrade the ibooks in january, they risk creating the illusion that the new intel powered ibooks are 'better' than the powerbooks. so i'm thinking the january transition will be somethign small... tip of the iceburg type small, like the mac mini, then we'll see the powerbooks and ibooks do a simultaneous upgrade in april at the earliest, but most likely june of 06... small moves, ellie, small moves

 

[dernhelm]

Interesting - I think you are the first to put it exactly like this. Are the Dothan and Yonah pin-compatible? Could Apple offer a laptop in, say, three sizes with the same logic board where the only difference was the type (rather than speed) of processor that was fitted?

The dothan and the yonah are NOT pin compatible, although they are both 479 pin chips. AnandTech did a small review on this just a couple of days back...

So they would have to offer different logic boards, but I would guess that the physical form factor on these boards could be essentially identical.

 

[Surreal]

But but but that requires that Steve admit that he was wrong. Its taken Apple how long to come out with a 2 button mouse and even now its not really a two button mouse but it is but...

Lets leave it at this. . . I'll believe it when the words pass Jobs's lips.

no "admission" required or needed.

mighty mouse - "Who has time for intuitive, elegant design when there is so much clicking to do? " http://www.apple.com/mightymouse/design.html


got to love the humor

 

[dernhelm]

But but but that requires that Steve admit that he was wrong. Its taken Apple how long to come out with a 2 button mouse and even now its not really a two button mouse but it is but...

Lets leave it at this. . . I'll believe it when the words pass Jobs's lips.

Man let's not get too far into the mouse situation at Apple - it still isn't good. Not with the "mighty" one or the "mickey" one.

 

[dernhelm]

The question is what will they put after Powerbook... Powerbook G3.. Powerbook G4... Powerbook PM?

iPowerbook? (i for intel of course)

But my guess is that it will simply be called Powerbook G5. Remember the 'G' designations were only used by Apple in the first place, if they want to call make G5 an intel chip, that's their perrogative.

 

[Frobozz]

PowerPC and Intel along side for a while

I think it is feasible that the recent PowerBook updates for PowerPC will be kept, just as the PCI-X version of the PowerMac was kept. Or, for that matter, an eMac when the iMac was released.

Apple may keep a single model of PowerPC PowerBook available (but not heavily advertised) as a backup solution for "legacy" users.

And along these lines, one more naming convention is at stake ... the "Power" in PowerBook is for PowerPC ! I've thrown out a bunch of other ideas but this one could be interesting. I think they may stick with the Power monicker, but maybe they change? Now *that* would be big.

 

[Frobozz]

iPowerbook? (i for intel of course)

But my guess is that it will simply be called Powerbook G5. Remember the 'G' designations were only used by Apple in the first place, if they want to call make G5 an intel chip, that's their perrogative.

yes but both "Power" and the "G" are for PowerPC and the generation of that chip used. While the generation of chip was largely arbitartily drawn in the sand (silicon?) by Apple, it's still a throwback to that.

I have a feeling, given the long standing usefulness of "Power" in the name, that they may keep that. As for the "G", that has also been given a life of it's own, and increments in numbering nicely for consumers.

Perhaps the underpinnings to the naming scheme are no longer relevant or worth changing for the consumer. In which case I'd argue along side you with a "G" monicker.

PowerBook G5, G5i, or just "5" ?

 

[Frobozz]

i'm thinking citigroup is just as in the dark as the rest of us...
nontheless, a couple things to consider... apple just released powerbook upgrades.... will they really release another upgrade/major overhaul after just a couple months? if they upgrade the ibooks in january, they risk creating the illusion that the new intel powered ibooks are 'better' than the powerbooks. so i'm thinking the january transition will be somethign small... tip of the iceburg type small, like the mac mini, then we'll see the powerbooks and ibooks do a simultaneous upgrade in april at the earliest, but most likely june of 06... small moves, ellie, small moves

I had a comment above that talked about this, but my belief is the PowerPC PowerBooks are meant to stay around while the new Intel based PowerBooks are in full swing. At least for a while. This helps with mission critical PowerPC applications for "legacy" users. After all, the changes made in the most recent upgrade will not be lost or go unused in either case.