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Some people keep claiming ARM is way cheaper, but for today's ARM chips the reason why they are cheaper is because they are designed to be cheap for their performance grades.

They are cheap because they have been commoditized to a large degree. The customers that buy them in volume x-ray the packages, calculate the cost of manufacturing depending on the process node and slap on 1-3%. Maybe you can get an extra % if you plead about some nifty innovation, but that's it.

Contrast this to Intel designs that may command a premium amongst consumers because they can maintain an innovation gap, driven in large part by their process node prowess.

Granted that Intel can continue to play up tricks to get good gains for 10-15 years (echoing Intel's old chief archtect and his speech on hotchips here, I have far far to little fabbing insight for making such guesses), but sooner or later they'll end up hitting a performance wall. And then it's commoditization time.

What happens then?

Or for that matter, if shrinks stop getting you efficiency gains. So that when you shrink your node, and if you want to keep using the same silicon area, you end up with lots of dark silicon becasue of TDP constraints? Silicon that one need to use intermittently, say by integrating custom accelerators and such. IP that I feel would make more sense being closely controlled by Apple in this case.


(Note that the calculation may well still end up in Intel's favour, I'm just saying that there are interesting times ahead)
 
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They are cheap because they have been commoditized to a large degree. The customers that buy them in volume x-ray the packages, calculate the cost of manufacturing depending on the process node and slap on 1-3%. Maybe you can get an extra % if you plead about some nifty innovation, but that's it.

Contrast this to Intel designs that may command a premium amongst consumers because they can maintain an innovation gap, driven in large part by their process node prowess.

Granted that Intel can continue to play up tricks to get good gains for 10-15 years (echoing Intel's old chief archtect and his speech on hotchips here, I have far far to little fabbing insight for making such guesses), but sooner or later they'll end up hitting a performance wall. And then it's commoditization time.

What happens then?

Or for that matter, if shrinks stop getting you efficiency gains. So that when you shrink your node, and if you want to keep using the same silicon area, you end up with lots of dark silicon becasue of TDP constraints? Silicon that one need to use intermittently, say by integrating custom accelerators and such. IP that I feel would make more sense being closely controlled by Apple in this case.


(Note that the calculation may well still end up in Intels favour, I'm just saying that there are interesting times ahead)

With the costs of going to a new process increasing a lot with seemingly ever performance gain, the limits will become financial that's for sure. We are getting there and that is what should be worrying Intel.

If an ARM 2018 chip does 100% of what they need to do for 90% of the overall market and 75% for the next 5%, and 50% for the last 5%, that doesn't leave much market for Intel. Considering the overall size of the market, they'll still make a a pretty large profit, but they will not be what they were in the 1990s and early 2000s.

That's like retina screen... You could go to 600PPI, but what's the point when 1% of people can resolve to that.
 
Apple typically does not play the low end of the market. They typically play the high end of the market. $500 computers? You're dreaming. This is Apple we're talking about, not Charlie's discount box shop.

You're clueless about Apple's business model. Apple doesn't sell "high-end" products. They sell high-margin products. If they could make a $500 Mac with a high margin, they would.

They DON'T want to make a $500 mac with $2 profit margin.

And they they don't compromise on design to achieve that goal.

It's amazing how clueless people still are about Apple's business model. I guess it's lazy to think that, because it's expensive, that means they ONLY want to sell at that price range.

They would sell at a lower price range if they could get the parts for cheaper without compromising competitive design advantages.
 
Someone please make it illegal for corporations to use the word "innovate" ever again. At least make it illegal to use it twice in the same sentence.

I'm pretty sure Microsoft in the late 90s is to blame for this vocabulary meme. I still hate it. These people sound like their dialog is written by an automated corporate mission statement generator.
 
Forget apple for you, in the sense of not buying from them or forget apple as a company because they'll be doomed?
Forget Apple for me.

I think you've posted before that you don't buy their computers any longer because the intel Macs are not as good as the PPC (if I'm misstating your position, please let me know). If that is the cause then, any platform change that apple may embrace really won't have an impact on you.
Yes and no. You're right in thinking I don't think the Intel Macs are as good as the PPC ones were (and still are with thanks to some 3rd party software). I won't be buying any new Macs at the moment because of Yosemite which is probably the worst OS I've ever used.

If Apple sort their OS out (in terms of both appearance and under the hood performance) and stick to Intel, a purchase of a new Mac may well be on the table again.
 
Some people keep claiming ARM is way cheaper, but for today's ARM chips the reason why they are cheaper is because they are designed to be cheap for their performance grades. The mainstream of high-perf ARM chips are going into smartphones that have a extremely low power envelope and moderately low performance targets as compared to PCs. Moreover, the lower the grade is, the cheaper the process technology you may choose as the tolerance and requirement are relaxed, or either tighten your design to achieve a smaller die and implicitly higher volume. Ugh. When you need to raise it to "desktop-class" or in fact "server-class-that-is-dropped-back-into-PCs", especially for clocks, it is no longer that "cheaper". Perhaps AMD would want to tell a story about this, someday.

Unless there is a specific niche one wants to follow, or one is willing to risk on the foundries' roadmaps for bleeding edge technologies, otherwise in the PC, workstation and server arena Intel is the safest choice. AMD's x86 business might have a chance in the near future if we are talking about mid- to low-end, but I haven't really thought of any single real value addition of ARMv8 in this field. Heck, even AMD's semi-custom business looks like a better alternative...

I can't be so sure though. Let's wait and see if there is any surprises...

LOL, another victim of corporate marketing!

ARMs are cheaper because they're simply cheaper to produce. Given the same process ARMs take less space because they are a simpler and more efficient design. That means you can put more of them on the same wafer and a greater percentage will work.

If you were so inclined you could also adapt the ARM to have a similar performance profile (basically improving single thread performance at the cost of multicore performance) and the ARM would still be cheaper while also performing better in terms of power and computing speed for the same price.

Intel slavishly sticks to the x86 ISA although it's clearly a disadvantage because it gives them an effective monopoly.
 
I've been in hold for buying a new Mac for years now, just because Intel's ineptitude to release new processors with faster performance. So, yes, please Apple, get rid of Intel, and soon. Now.
 
Intel slavishly sticks to the x86 ISA although it's clearly a disadvantage because it gives them an effective monopoly.

I don't think one's worse than the other, so much as each has been designed to fill very different roles. ARM tends to be more about efficiency per clock cycle, meaning it can do simple tasks quickly without much overhead. x86 has always been more about pure performance, able to perform complex tasks quickly without any consideration to overhead (at least until recently).

Making ARM competitive with an i7 in its market isn't a matter of simply giving it more power a higher clock, and making an i7 competitive with an ARM isn't simply about throwing it on a smaller die, and lowering its power consumption. There is no better overall chip. Only a chip that's better for certain needs.

edit: Here's an interesting article. You can sum it up like so:

Each processor has its advantages, but over time, ARM is becoming more like x86 in some ways, and x86 is becoming more like ARM in others.

What's going to end up happening is what I've said for years now. Eventually, the two are going to meet in the middle, and you won't have any one architecture with a clear advantage. Rather, you'll have two competitors facing each other on a nearly equal playing field.
 
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There is no reason to drop Intel for ARM since the only justifiable reason for this would be lower power and better passive cooling. Intel has finally made their processors more competitive with mobile ARM chips in terms of heat output, and they are still full x86 chips that run everything.

Apple should actually make an x86 tablet. I'd rather have a Surface Pro than any iPad, honestly.
 
Actually Intel Mac's are cheaper than their equivalent PowerPC predecessors so Apple has passed on cost savings to the consumer in the past.

But to be fair, IIRC MacPro has been more expensive since Apple switched to Xeon?
 
A few random thoughts of my own

1) for the "near" future I still sort of imagine that we will see iOS coupled with the Ax chips (which at present are ARM chips) and OS X coupled with x86 chips.

2) Apple has been careful on their iOS devices to market the processor as an Ax chip not as an ARM Cortex blah blah derivative. I believe it is to keep the chip line separate, and independent from an specific processor/architecture. The A12 could be ARM, x86/x64, some other custom Apple proc. The point is the Ax chips are specifically marketed as their own chip line not as a branch of another architecture, this gives Apple the flexibility to do whatever they want or see fit.

3) Right now the x86/x64 compatibility is very useful and without argument gives Apple products a versatility that would be difficult (if not impossible) to match if Apple switched to ARM. In many ways, going to ARM would be reminiscent of the PPC Days. Apple would need to once again need to bring more hardware design in house, require custom builds of other hardware (like the GPU's, etc. ) driving up costs for initial builds, maintenance, upgrading, etc.
Also on a Mac right now I can boot camp or virtualize OS X, Windows, Linux, and other OS's which is important for many of users.

4) Do we know/trust that Apple could have any better development, fabrication and delivery of new processors than Intel if Apple brought it all in house? Apple was helping design the PPC chips (not just IBM) if I remember correctly.

5) I suspect having x86/x64 compatibility helps bring many software products to Mac that might otherwise be Win/Lin only.
 
A few random thoughts of my own

1) for the "near" future I still sort of imagine that we will see iOS coupled with the Ax chips (which at present are ARM chips) and OS X coupled with x86 chips.

2) Apple has been careful on their iOS devices to market the processor as an Ax chip not as an ARM Cortex blah blah derivative. I believe it is to keep the chip line separate, and independent from an specific processor/architecture. The A12 could be ARM, x86/x64, some other custom Apple proc. The point is the Ax chips are specifically marketed as their own chip line not as a branch of another architecture, this gives Apple the flexibility to do whatever they want or see fit.

3) Right now the x86/x64 compatibility is very useful and without argument gives Apple products a versatility that would be difficult (if not impossible) to match if Apple switched to ARM. In many ways, going to ARM would be reminiscent of the PPC Days. Apple would need to once again need to bring more hardware design in house, require custom builds of other hardware (like the GPU's, etc. ) driving up costs for initial builds, maintenance, upgrading, etc.
Also on a Mac right now I can boot camp or virtualize OS X, Windows, Linux, and other OS's which is important for many of users.

4) Do we know/trust that Apple could have any better development, fabrication and delivery of new processors than Intel if Apple brought it all in house? Apple was helping design the PPC chips (not just IBM) if I remember correctly.

5) I suspect having x86/x64 compatibility helps bring many software products to Mac that might otherwise be Win/Lin only.

Apple doesn't have an X86 license only Intel, AMD, Via, and some else have a license. I believe that Vias license expires this year. There is no benefit to Intel for them to grant Apple a license nor is there benefit to AMD to grant X64 if it was as simple as just making the processor Apple would have done it already.
 
LOL, another victim of corporate marketing!

ARMs are cheaper because they're simply cheaper to produce. Given the same process ARMs take less space because they are a simpler and more efficient design. That means you can put more of them on the same wafer and a greater percentage will work.

If you were so inclined you could also adapt the ARM to have a similar performance profile (basically improving single thread performance at the cost of multicore performance) and the ARM would still be cheaper while also performing better in terms of power and computing speed for the same price.

Intel slavishly sticks to the x86 ISA although it's clearly a disadvantage because it gives them an effective monopoly.
Thanks for calling me a corporate marketing victim, but unfortunately I am not. I guess the underdog's fanboi is a better title for me. The thing is you didn't seem making a sound point either. What I was taking about is that today's ARM chips being cheap and power efficient is because they are intended to go along this way. There is nothing wrong about this, as it is a super generic statement. Microcontrollers are cheap because they are intended to be super low performance (yet adequate for its job) and super cheap with thin margins. Anything really wrong?

What I think people went wrong is they placed the same assumption on these chips (and microarchitectures sometimes) for a lower performance, lower price point processor market on a broad series of market segments above, which isn't really the same living habitat after all.

Let's face it. The more complex the design is, the more insignificant the "x86 overhead" is, or in other words "negligible" as the cost proportional to the entire scale is significantly smaller. It is just the cost of decoding the instructions and supporting corner-cased instructions after all if we are speaking of the core itself. For the rest, an add is an add, and a multiply is a multiply.

Let's also not forget CPU nowadays attributes to only a small portion of die layout in a complex SOC, while the performance of the cache hierarchy, the platform power management and sometimes your sets of I/O and accelerators matter more. Yes, ARM is a more elegant instruction set and can be implemented in a cleaner way undoubtedly, but does it matter the most when you weight other stuff? Lots of people may disagree.

Yeah, Intel sticks to it probably because it wants to hold monopoly in its land. It is the nature of business. Who would leave an advantage on the table unused? The PC and the server markets are reluctant to x86, this is the truth, just like how the mobile market is reluctant to ARM. This is a historical factor, and less a technical factor. If you have time, please also help ask AMD why they would still develop a new x86 core from clean sheet, targeting 2016 launch, if x86 really sucks and has no business value.

I would not deny that Apple may have the ability to take on Intel, given the great design of its Cyclone micro architecture. If they are able to push it into higher clocks and pioneer the invasion into the heterogeneous era, it would probably be something nice after all. But Mac is a product stack with premium price points, and it is competing with a sea of Intel-inside (and rarely AMD-inside today...) PCs, unlike the mobile market that the major competitors are all on the same ground (as Intel is nearly inexistent). It IMO needs something that justifies the price points, while splitting the ecosystem shall be avoided if possible. Unless Apple intends to make breakthrough in areas other than the CPU business (which AMD is attempting via HSA...), making use of its vertical integration model, I wouldn't hold my breathe tight on a Mac transition to ARM. So just don't let the hype train lose its brake, please.
 
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Ehm. Flaw... flawlessly? I am quite curious how you have such an impression, as I've followed news of the industry for quite a long time and it was certainly... not flawlessly. Heck, TSMC even screwed the 32nm process and jumped straight to 28nm, and it is the only high-profile Asian foundry post 45/40nm, by the way.


But at least, hem, they have real engineering samples and they start to ship real chips. Frankly speaking, foundries are no better than Intel in this regard. The difficulty to bring up the yield is not about where the fab is..., but fighting with the atoms.

What you say maybe true. But I am just going off the general perception. I have never heard of an A series chip being "delayed" due to manufacturing by a year. Even the non Apple chips manufactured by Asian vendors seem to arrive on time, in high quality and in enormous volumes.

I guess it's the difference in work ethic and competence in manufacturing. No matter how we dice it, the days of high quality mass manufacturing in the US are over. Just as Tim Cook said, even if someone wanted to run a manufacturing ops in the US, it will be impossible to find enough competent (let alone enough motivated) employees. There is a difference between sitting around in a union shop gossiping and waiting the clock out to squeeze jobs bank benefits while complaining about foreigners; versus a motivated workforce showing up determined to succeed for themselves and their families.
 
My prediction - a shake up to the laptop products is coming:-

Macbook Pros will remain intel-based but become like the current Air designwise.

Macbook Airs will become ARM based. Won't allow for virtualisation but it will allow them to compete in the low end notebook arena (where most people just write emails and surf the web) - ios app dev will still be possible on these.
 
(...) You will be able to get at least current-level performance for around 50% of current price, with retina screen and low-power (which means great battery life) features aswell. (...)

You do realise that the processor cost is just one part of total hardware cost so your statement may be a BIT colored by wishful thinking (especialy since Apple is not known to hand savings down to customers).

Then again I do not understand the whole emotional Point of this discussion.
As long as a Mac does what I want it to do, for a prize that I am willing to pay, all is fine.
If a Mac no longer does what I want it to do, I just use a different Computer.
To me OS/X and Windows (currently 7, as it seems Microsoft always needs to release one Version that stinks before the next good one) are both viable options with both advantages and disadvantages over the other. There is some Software exclusive to the Mac, some (well, admittedly a lot more) exclusive to Windows. So to me the current State makes me a happy Mac user as it grants me access to both worlds without the need for a second computer, if that changes I simply check what exclusive Software I need more or take the step and use two computers...
 
I've been in hold for buying a new Mac for years now, just because Intel's ineptitude to release new processors with faster performance. So, yes, please Apple, get rid of Intel, and soon. Now.

The latest iMac with an Intel i7-4970K CPU is about twice as fast as a 2011 iMac. See Geekbench and other benchmarks.

iMacs 2011 and later with Intel's Sandy Bridge CPUs also have Quick Sync which can transcode video about five times faster than other methods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Quick_Sync_Video
 
Should have xerox'd a page out of Apples playbook and said nothing. Someday in the not-too-distant future this guy is going to look like bill gates with a pie in his face. He's going to look like Ballmer laughing at the iPhone. He's going to look like Neville Chamberlain declaring "peace in our time". Idiot.
 
You're clueless about Apple's business model. Apple doesn't sell "high-end" products. They sell high-margin products. If they could make a $500 Mac with a high margin, they would.

They DON'T want to make a $500 mac with $2 profit margin.

And they they don't compromise on design to achieve that goal.

It's amazing how clueless people still are about Apple's business model. I guess it's lazy to think that, because it's expensive, that means they ONLY want to sell at that price range.

They would sell at a lower price range if they could get the parts for cheaper without compromising competitive design advantages.


its clueless how many people think that apple under jobs is the same business model under cook.

ITS NOT , inventing for apple is slowing dramatically, Margins are whats important to apple now not "design" , if you believe otherwise you a mistaken.

you my friend are the clueless one.
 
A few random thoughts of my own

1) for the "near" future I still sort of imagine that we will see iOS coupled with the Ax chips (which at present are ARM chips) and OS X coupled with x86 chips.

2) Apple has been careful on their iOS devices to market the processor as an Ax chip not as an ARM Cortex blah blah derivative. I believe it is to keep the chip line separate, and independent from an specific processor/architecture. The A12 could be ARM, x86/x64, some other custom Apple proc. The point is the Ax chips are specifically marketed as their own chip line not as a branch of another architecture, this gives Apple the flexibility to do whatever they want or see fit.

3) Right now the x86/x64 compatibility is very useful and without argument gives Apple products a versatility that would be difficult (if not impossible) to match if Apple switched to ARM. In many ways, going to ARM would be reminiscent of the PPC Days. Apple would need to once again need to bring more hardware design in house, require custom builds of other hardware (like the GPU's, etc. ) driving up costs for initial builds, maintenance, upgrading, etc.
Also on a Mac right now I can boot camp or virtualize OS X, Windows, Linux, and other OS's which is important for many of users.

4) Do we know/trust that Apple could have any better development, fabrication and delivery of new processors than Intel if Apple brought it all in house? Apple was helping design the PPC chips (not just IBM) if I remember correctly.

5) I suspect having x86/x64 compatibility helps bring many software products to Mac that might otherwise be Win/Lin only.

They're already have CPU, SOC and GPU integration in house; so not sure were your getting at. It's obvious that the CPU is no longer the only critical part of the modern mobile computer, which lessens Intel's importance.

I think the next 2 years will be an eye opener on were Apple's SOC and CPU development is going.
 
Maybe this is why that reference came to mind…

image.jpg
 
When you start so low, it is easier to have huge growth.

Let's put it this way. ARM is closer to reaching X86 performance than X86 is to reaching ARM efficiency. Most consumers are only going to be using their laptop for web browsing and ARM is completely sufficient for that use case.

For Office, Photoshop, video editing, Intel is still here. For now. Why are people so scared of change? Why is it bad that Apple is moving to an architecture that they or Samsung or TSMC or whoever else can manufacture, instead of being beholden to Intel?
 
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