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iOS 16 Speculation Thread

See my commentary to your post below, in red.


Phogro said:
Few things here.

1.) iOS 16 is at no risk of slowing down the shipment of the iPhone. If they don't get a feature finished or bug patched in time of flash date, they're going to flash the phones and issue a day one update (we've seen it before). The phones WILL ship, regardless of the state of iOS 16 at whatever date is set in stone. Disagree (except provisionally as to the last statement). They know what they want to ship and they will ship it unless they can't. They are not going to let the very very incremental 15.6 hold up development and deployment of iOS 16 features that will support their newest flagship product. Remember: Apple is a hardware company. Everything else, including services revenue, flows from shipping hardware to use it on. The only thing that will keep Apple from shipping this software/feature set are issues with the features themselves. Thus, development of 16 will almost certainly take priority.
2.) There are likely two separate teams working on 15.6 and 16.0 meaning delaying 15.6 keeps that team tied up longer when they are likely going to be reallocated to 16.0 development once their project is finished.
In my experience the project that has the most immediate impact on the customer is the one that is prioritized. Yes - iOS 16 is their new big flashy release, but 15.6 NEEDS to be delivered to customers. Why does 15.6 NEED to be delivered to customers? If we assume that instead of RC2 we were supposed to get the public release of 15.6 Monday this week, you better bet that there are managers within Apple HQ having meeting after meeting today to try to figure out why they missed their ship date. True. But that is merely an assumption. For all we know, 15.6 was NOT designated for public release on Monday.

It's fun to speculate, but really difficult to know for sure what's going on there. Absolutely. Conversations like these are what make this thread fun. Not the endless "Today?" posts...

I do think that there is a high chance that with the updated developer build last week we might not see a release until next week (2 weeks from public beta). Agree wiith this, as noted above. This happened last year (albeit one beta earlier in the process). And once i re-noticed that, I came to the conclusion that this whole line of speculation is probably barking up the wrong tree. 16b4 probably always was designated for next week. So whatever has gone on with 15.6 probably has no impact at all on 16b4. Oh well! Fun discussion!
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gwhizkids said:
See my commentary to your post below, in red.
Click to expand...
Good arguments. I believe they're flawed, but I can't prove they're flawed nor can you prove mine are flawed we can only argue in circles until the end of time.

We'll never know Apple's true road map (unless someone from within the inner circle tells us). So if 15.6 comes out today that could have been the plan all along OR it just as likely it could have been planned to release Monday, but they found an issue and released RC2 delaying the public release to Wednesday (today). In that scenario it could have delayed the release of 16B4 this week or 16B4 was always destined for next week.

However, if 16B4 comes out today and 15.6 comes out next week it's possible they delayed 15.6 in order to not conflict with the release of 16B4 this week, but it's also possible that 15.6 was always destined for next week. It's also possible that the work being done on 15.6 took longer than expected and that delay was a result of that work directly and has nothing to do with avoiding 16B4's release.

It's also possible that 15.6 is released next Monday, and 16B4 comes next Tuesday and this week was always planned to have no releases OR it could even mean that 15.6 was delayed a full week resulting in no releases this week, but two releases next week when the original plan was to have a release each week.

And that leaves (I think) the only, and very unlikely situation I haven't covered yet, what does it mean if both 15.6 and 16B4 come on the same day? To me this would tell me that Apple doesn't care about conflicting releases as much as we think they do. I have no memory of a public release and a beta release being on the same day, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened my memory of this stuff is terrible.

Anyway - I agree fun discussion/debate. Too bad we'll never really have an answer.
 
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sniffies said:
Like I said Monday morning, there will be no public or dev betas this week since the public beta and the revised dev beta were released last week. We're on a two-week schedule, not one-week, at least not yet.
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Revised Betas don't count. What you are essentially saying is that because they revised Beta 3 last week, they have wasted entire one week doing nothing new.
 
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Phogro said:
Good arguments. I believe they're flawed, but I can't prove they're flawed nor can you prove mine are flawed we can only argue in circles until the end of time.

We'll never know Apple's true road map (unless someone from within the inner circle tells us). So if 15.6 comes out today that could have been the plan all along OR it just as likely it could have been planned to release Monday, but they found an issue and released RC2 delaying the public release to Wednesday (today). In that scenario it could have delayed the release of 16B4 this week or 16B4 was always destined for next week.

However, if 16B4 comes out today and 15.6 comes out next week it's possible they delayed 15.6 in order to not conflict with the release of 16B4 this week, but it's also possible that 15.6 was always destined for next week. It's also possible that the work being done on 15.6 took longer than expected and that delay was a result of that work directly and has nothing to do with avoiding 16B4's release.

It's also possible that 15.6 is released next Monday, and 16B4 comes next Tuesday and this week was always planned to have no releases OR it could even mean that 15.6 was delayed a full week resulting in no releases this week, but two releases next week when the original plan was to have a release each week.

And that leaves (I think) the only, and very unlikely situation I haven't covered yet, what does it mean if both 15.6 and 16B4 come on the same day? To me this would tell me that Apple doesn't care about conflicting releases as much as we think they do. I have no memory of a public release and a beta release being on the same day, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened my memory of this stuff is terrible.

Anyway - I agree fun discussion/debate. Too bad we'll never really have an answer.
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iOS 15.2.1 stable and the second beta of iOS 15.3 were released on the same day, January 12. Difficult, but not impossible to release a stable version and a beta on the same day.
 
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AA18380E-D9A6-49E4-B5C4-A72E69C9DDCD.jpeg

Neighbours’ cat just popped by and peered into the window.
 
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