so what if the sim is taken out before you can do a wipe? there's no cell service on the phone so can't you still erase all settings and content?
If the device is activation locked, you need to put in the password to disable the lock or activate it after an erasure. The whole point of this feature is to be proactive and "lock" the device while it is
still in your possession! It's not a reactive measure like "Wipe my Phone" is.
When a thief goes to resell a device, the whole point is that they want to sell it to someone as "used". That means wiping it and making it new. If they wipe it, it needs to be reactivated. If the device was "locked" by the original owner
while they possessed it, then it doesn't matter. Apple's activation server will simply block the activation, and the activation cannot be done without network access.
It leaves the device mostly useful for parts at that point. And really only the LCD, battery, case (if in good shape), and a couple other small pieces. The logic board cannot be salvaged in that case.
This of course assumes you can't MitM this form of activation or bypass it via jailbreak.
This is all wonderful, but I wonder if we'll see an all new type of iPhone muggings:
"Unlock your phone and remove the lockout restriction then give it to me, or I will cut you"
Sounds scary; in a mugging situation you generally want to give them what they want and get away as quickly as possible.
A non-trivial number of thieves don't actually want a confrontation. But if it can't be avoided, for it to be as brief as possible. So you get a large number of snatch-and-grabs on public transit.
So it affects the incentive for thieves in a couple ways:
1) A snatch and grab thief will start to learn that iPhones are getting harder to fence/resell, and see it as a risk, not an easy meal.
2) The mugger may go for other valuables instead of drawing out the confrontation to get the iPhone too. The extra time involved increases the risk for the mugger, especially when it becomes something easy for the victim to screw up (adding more time), and giving the victim a longer chance to identify you after the fact to police.
Now, I'm not saying it will stop all iPhone-related thefts, but it will increase the risks involved for a non-trivial number of thieves, and reduce the benefit of the result. So it will help reduce the numbers, possibly drastically depending on the makeup of iPhone-related thefts, and how quickly the activation lock gets bypassed down the road.