iPad Opening Weekend Pre-Orders Pegged at Roughly 150,000 Units

[GQB]

Easy. Hypothetically someone puts out negative stories, the stock goes down, they buy a bunch of stock, and then the iPad comes out without problems (since they made the 'problems' up) and the stock you bought cheaply goes up!

I'm not saying that's what's happening here, but that's what the poster was talking about. It's certainly happened before in the stock market.

Alternatively, they could short the stock . You can read the link if you really care how it works, but the short version is that it's GOOD for you when a stock goes down. So if you're shorting a stock, telling bad stories about that company helps you.

All of this is illegal, by the way, so when people here say that this is what's happening, they're just guessing. There's no proof lying around on the internet, obviously.

Or, you can just play the ups and downs (particularly for a famously volatile stock like AAPL.)
I did this for a while on last year's drop back to sub 100. I'd buy when it dropped to the low 90's and sell when it hit 100. Did that about 5 times and luckily held on the last pass through 100. That's the risk... you never know when the thrashing will stop and a real upswing starts.

 

[diabolic]

I think the stock drop is more due to people realizing that this isn't the "next iPod". So much hype surrounds every product that apple releases due to their history of game-changing successes, that in the weeks before any release, presale, or announcement, the stock soars, and then immediately drops.

I think it's that the stock typically "moves" a lot compared to others. You can't read much into one day of up or down. Most analysts are expecting the iPad to be a "success", but they are still cautious about where it will ultimately go.

Personally, I don't think you'll see another tablet come close to these pre-order numbers, and I expect the iPad to easily be the top selling tablet form factor device over the next 3 years. It will be interesting to see the sales numbers once people can actually hold one before they buy it.

 

[JGowan]

Yeah, I also didn't expect them to fly off of the shelves on launch.

By the holidays, everyone will want one.

The math suggests that if each of Apple's orders were an average of $664* for iPad sells, 150,000 orders would be just a hair under $100,000,000. One Hundred Million Dollars. That's completely unheard of! That's not counting all of the money for Cases, Docks, Keyboards, Apple Care -- Personally, I spent $236 on a additional "extras" -- even if the average spent half that on cases and Applecare, etc, that's another $18M! Wow!

This is Sight-Unseen-Pre-sell! Nobody else could do this! If what Daniel Tello claims is true and Apple DOES eventually pre-sell 500,000, that's $332,000,000 according to the my average sale-point of $664 per iPad. WOW!!!

I believe we humans get so used the word "million" these days that it's easy to sort of minimize what I big number it truly is.

*Number halfway between 499 and 829.

 

[kas23]

It would be very interesting to see how many developer vs non-developers ordered during the pre-order. I would assume that every developer automatically ordered one for App development use (in the very least).

In fact, does anyone know how many developers are registered with Apple? And I would say that 75% of them are bonafide developers.

 

[dongmin]

Question:

Does iPad sales count under "smartphones" or "portable PCs"? Or does it create a whole new category for itself?

I'm assuming tablets are currently counted as PCs, as are netbooks. So if these sales figures are lumped with Mac sales, Apple could become the new leader in PC unit sales in a span of a year. Also note that at $500-$830, these actually cost as much as bargain-basement laptops.

I can see Apple moving 8-10 million of these a year. Easy. That would double Apple's marketshare.

 

[DaveSW]

rofl.."orders on Saturday and Sunday slowed to an estimated 1,000 per hour."

1,000 per hour is still awesome.


in comparison Google sold 20,000 Nexus one's the entire WEEK.

 

[anthonymoody]

Seriously guys, IF these numbers are true they are nothing short of phenomenal, and trying to paint them in any other light is silly.

5 - 7 million in Year 1 is the likely case. And if I had to, I'd take the 'over.'

 

[twoodcc]

I don't quite understand the negative spin implied by the article.

These numbers are incredible. It took Apple 74 days to sell one million iPhones in 2007. If iPad sells a million units in two weeks, that's phenomenal.

i agree. i mean, they are expecting 500,000 sales without anyone actually seeing the product in person!

 

[GQB]

Question:

Does iPad sales count under "smartphones" or "portable PCs"? Or does it create a whole new category for itself?

I'm assuming tablets are currently counted as PCs, as are netbooks. So if these sales figures are lumped with Mac sales, Apple could become the new leader in PC unit sales in a span of a year. Also note that at $500-$830, these actually cost as much as bargain-basement laptops.

I can see Apple moving 8-10 million of these a year. Easy. That would double Apple's marketshare.

Doesn't much matter because the naysayers generally claim that the iPad isn't even a 'computer' at all because it doesn't allow 100% access to every layer of the OS and hardware.
I personally don't buy that self-serving definition of 'computer'. The fact that computers have until this point happened to fit that description speaks more to marketing, not technology. Until now, computers have been development tools that produce applications that are themselves other development tools. Spreadsheets, compilers, languages, etc.
But now that the computer is no longer this immovable elephant sitting on your desktop, but instead a portable extension of your senses, its time that we finally get beyond the 1940's definition of 'computers'.

 

[DaveSW]

i agree. i mean, they are expecting 500,000 sales without anyone actually seeing the product in person!

500,000: that's the no. of Tablet PCs sold for the entire YEAR of 2003.

 

[legacyb4]

My guess is once these hit the streets and people start seeing the first wave of users in Starbucks, the flood of Youtube "look at my iPad" videos, and after Apple really steps up the advertising, it's going to be the hot item on a lot of people's "want" lists within 6 months...

 

[Friscohoya]

I am hoping that they announce something new like a better way to connect wirelessly to spur sales such as tethering or a one data plan fits all devices service.

I dont want to pay the premium for the 3G but I know at some point ATT and Apple will give in.

 

[cyberia625]

Not too concerned

I think the drop in the stock price is unimportant. As mentioned, tech stocks are down across the board today (and both the NASDAQ and Dow are down overall). Additionally, Apple is coming off its highest stock price...ever... on Friday. It's a typical sell-off situation after a strong week last week.

And I'm not worried about the lack of a camera on the thing, either. That's been a complaint about the iPod Touch and the iPhone (front-facing camera) for a couple years, and you can't claim either of those products are failures. In fact, the iPod Touch is one of Apple's most successful products, and I view the first iteration of the iPad as an extension of the iPod Touch line, not the iPhone line.

As a personal note, I'm just fine with it not having a camera. If I'm on a conference call on Skype for work, video isn't really going to improve my experience. I honestly think people over-estimate the importance of having a front-facing camera, as they're likely used less often than you realize (for the *average* consumer).

 

[DotCom2]

Look, this is a discretionary device during a resession.
Those numbers if true are fabulous!

 

[E.Lizardo]

By the holidays, there will be some very good tablets on the market. I still want an iPad, that's right. I'm just not sure, whether I will buy one. That's the same with a lot of us.

Any tablet running Windows is not"very good"in my book,regardless of the hardware.

 

[FaustsHausUK]

Question:

Does iPad sales count under "smartphones" or "portable PCs"? Or does it create a whole new category for itself?

I believe iPhone OS devices are all part of the iPod business unit, and this this would be reported there rather than in their Macintosh BU.

 

[FSMBP]

Seriously guys, IF these numbers are true they are nothing short of phenomenal, and trying to paint them in any other light is silly.

5 - 7 million in Year 1 is the likely case. And if I had to, I'd take the 'over.'

LOL. Don't quit your day-job.

Just like when new movies come out, the week an album drops, or the initial release of a product, sales will typically be the highest. After that initial week, sales dip dramatically (40-70%). There are exceptions to the rule but for a product that seems half-assed, I don't see this crossing 2-3 million this year.

 

[knewsom]

The thing about the whole "just wait till people start seeing them", is that this is still, for all intents and purposes, just a big iPod touch.

I do think that the lack of a 3G version right now has hurt presales, but I don't see it doubling the numbers once it's out.

7-8 million this year is laughable. Not a chance. 2 million by years end if they're lucky. 1000 an hour is NOT a sustainable number.

 

[diabolic]

So now, if they ONLY sell 2-3 million this year, that's not a success? LMAO.

You guys kill me.

I think you'll find that a lot of people want a "big iPod Touch."

 

[mdatwood]

You apparently live in the dark, because the early surveys came out showing the iPad had higher demand/interest prior to release than the first iPhone. It amazes me the number of people who sign up just to post an uneducated, usually negative, "contribution".

I've been an MR member since '07, but my id was messed up somehow.

150k units pre-sale is great. Considering that Apple was telling people who wanted to "reserve" one that the stock was already low, I'd guess another
50k at least were reserved for pickup. The original iPhone, which everyone said was a terrible idea, sold 250k the first week, in-store. No pre-orders. That was in a good economy where everyone had tons of dispensible cash. People are instant gratification beings by nature. Pre-order is not as much fun as going to the store and handing over your cash for your new item. Just wait till it hits stores and the hype really starts to fly.
This is big.

I don't remember people saying the iPhone was a terrible idea, just that it lacked certain features. My only original complaint was the lack of an app store. The day Apple announced the app store I bought my first iPhone. The iPhone really picked up once they added the app store, 3G and finally the $99 version.

And you know this because? Yeah all those buying it are Apple fans, the audacity of some of you. When this thing sells 10 million, they'll still be saying they were bought by fanboys. I guess all those millions of iphones sold were bought by Apple fanboys!

Who said that every iPhone was bought by a fanboy? Anyways, I don't blindly follow any company. I look at each product on its own merits. The iPhone and its ecosystem is an amazing product and service that entered into a huge, established market. Every person I know (techie and non-techie) either has an iPhone or wants one.

Tablets on the other hand are a different beast. In the past they have failed because they weren't very good, but also because the tablet market has always been very niche. I don't get emotionally involved with my computer hardware and instead try to look at things objectively. I won't call the tablet magical success or failure until we see real numbers a couple quarters from now.

 

[diabolic]

Tablets on the other hand are a different beast. In the past they have failed because they weren't very good, but also because the tablet market has always been very niche.

I think that's been the Catch-22. The market was also very niche because the tablets weren't very good.

 

[BuddyTronic]

I think the drop in the stock price is unimportant. As mentioned, tech stocks are down across the board today (and both the NASDAQ and Dow are down overall). Additionally, Apple is coming off its highest stock price...ever... on Friday. It's a typical sell-off situation after a strong week last week.

And I'm not worried about the lack of a camera on the thing, either. That's been a complaint about the iPod Touch and the iPhone (front-facing camera) for a couple years, and you can't claim either of those products are failures. In fact, the iPod Touch is one of Apple's most successful products, and I view the first iteration of the iPad as an extension of the iPod Touch line, not the iPhone line.

As a personal note, I'm just fine with it not having a camera. If I'm on a conference call on Skype for work, video isn't really going to improve my experience. I honestly think people over-estimate the importance of having a front-facing camera, as they're likely used less often than you realize (for the *average* consumer).

I agree that the stock drop is not really important. But it is irksome to me to see the pump and dump plays on AAPL. In these days of low volume trading, the big boys control all the momentum and they love to beat up AAPL for any reason they can find. It will boost back up again probably.

I see these things happen, but I don't take advantage of it personally - I should try putting my money where my mouth is.

 

[Xavier]

Too revolutionary. Too cool. Too out-of-the-box.

It won't catch on. They won't be able to sell a product like the iPad.

 

[sanPietro98]

I fully expect there will be another sales spike in early April after people can actually pick one up and try it out. I'm sure people are also waiting for the early in-the-wild reviews.

 

[mdatwood]

I think that's been the Catch-22. The market was also very niche because the tablets weren't very good.

And that's a good point. Apple has really put their marketing machine behind the 'magical' iPad I wonder if they know they have to overcome a lot of perception hurdles and are being pre-emptive?

It bothers me that it's impossible to have a real discussion about an Apple product though. Just because someone raises an issue with the iPad doesn't mean a) they aren't valid and b) they are anti-Apple/iPad/whatever. For me personally the iPad provides nothing right now. If I need a larger screen computer I'm already on my laptop because it means I'm working. If I just want to check the internet, communicate, read, etc... then I use the iPhone because of its portability and convergence of all these functions.

I have been kicking around a few iPad only app ideas, but I'll need to convince myself they have ROI potential before dropping the $500 for a test iPad. I really do want to convince myself to buy one, but right now a new MBP is way more important than a tertiary (to me) device.