iPhone 16 Pro Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Analyst Says

[thrckb]

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today said demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max has been "lower than expected" since the devices became available to pre-order in the U.S. and dozens of other countries on Friday. Kuo said his data is based on a "supply chain survey" and shipping estimates listed on Apple's online store.

Kuo estimated that sales of all four iPhone 16 models reached about 37 million units in the first weekend after Apple began accepting pre-orders, which is down nearly 13% compared to first-weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year. The analyst said a key factor for the decline is the lower demand for the Pro models, with first-weekend sales of the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max estimated to be down 27% and 16%, respectively, compared to iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max sales during the equivalent period last year.

The standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus have seen higher demand than the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus during the first weekend of sales, but this has not been enough to offset the lower demand for the Pro models, according to Kuo.

Kuo said a major reason for the iPhone 16 Pro models having lower-than-expected demand is that Apple Intelligence will not be available on the devices when they launch on Friday. Instead, the first Apple Intelligence features are rolling out with iOS 18.1 in October. In addition, the analyst said the iPhone is facing "intense competition" in China.

Article Link: iPhone 16 Pro Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Analyst Says

So the availablity for the new phones was to be on 9/20 but when I ordered mine only hours after the ordering began the delivery date was now out to mid Oct. So I am confused.

Sadly I confess to being one of those "need to have it" even if I don't need it and to be honest the only reason I upgrade every year is for the better camera. I will either sell my ProMax to a friend or if I can get max trade in value I'll go that route and lesson the bite of the bigger price. Even with the suck butt economy. You figure a trillion dollar company can keep the price low enough to sell more than the other side. But I guess there are no more visionary's leading Apple anymore.

 

[Chungry]

For a long time, many upgraded every year or cycle. I have been a buyer for 5 to 6 years, changing models. So, I am not in that catalog of people who do years of upgrades. Those who do, are happy doing so. Those who complain about innovation only want new toys yearly. A company that produces consumer products cannot make everyone happy year after year with any consumer product on the market.

That’s wrong though. Apple managed to best themselves year over year for so long they just did a self-own as a victim of their own success. Now they are seemingly correcting that and, predictably, people are not satisfied. It’s a startling lack of long-term thinking

 

[jonnyb098]

The chip isn't the same. The A18 isn't just some binned A18 pro, it has a whole section of the chip devoted to media encoding, etc., and an EXTRA INSTRUCTION SET for ML. You can't just bin that out.

That said, if you only noticed the extra GPU and you were on the fence, maybe the Pro isn't for you. It's actually kinda awesome that the 16 and 16 Pro are this close this year.

And despite the fact that I'm pointing out that the chips aren't the same, I actually DON'T care about those things, and I AM only getting the 16 pro because of the 5x telephoto. My iPhone is my main camera, and I'm still carrying an iPhone 11. I think I get to upgrade to the extra-nice phone this time around.

11 to the 16 pro will be massive for you. When I went from the 12 to the 15 it was mind blowing! Incredible cameras the last few years! Enjoy!

 

[citysnaps]

Lower than whose expectations, Kuo’s. What were his “expectations”? What are the actual numbers? Pure click bait. These people get paid by clicks, not fortune telling. In a week he’ll write.. “better than expected”. LOL

Spot-on. And many get frothed up assuming it's fact, and love taking a swing at Apple.

 

[mdriftmeyer]

That's stock manipulation at its finest. Apple never releases numbers and the Telco also keep it under wraps.

 

[rp2011]

I got the brown one for my wife as she was up for an upgrade. She liked the more colorful ones, but she settled on the brown one because of the cameras and the larger screen on the Max. I get why the Pro models have more subdued color choices, but this year's Pro color choices didn't do Apple any favors.

 

[delsoul]

Of course an analyst said that lmao
When has some analyst NOT said the new iPhone was underperforming?

Kuo and Gurman trying to save their own skin when they were both hyping the iPhone 16 as the greatest creation ever. I think the iPhone 16 is a nice phone if you don’t already have one or if you’re upgrading from a really old iPhone, but there’s just not enough there to upgrade if you have a 14 or 15

 

[springsup]

The real competition for the iPhone 16 Pro is the iPhone 15 Pro.

I upgraded from an iPhone X - a couple of days after the Apple event, I ordered an iPhone 15 Pro from a third-party refurb seller. I had been intending to buy a 16 Pro, but I checked the 15 prices out of curiosity and it was just much better value for money. The unit I got was “like new” quality - screen and body are all flawless, brand new battery (literally 0 cycles). It could be a unit somebody sent back and never even used.

I paid €950 for a 15 Pro 256, compared to €1350 for a 16 Pro 256. That’s about 1/3 off.

And for 2/3 of the price, I get all the same Apple Intelligence features as the 16 Pro, a huge upgrade to performance, the 120Hz screen, USB-C, the dynamic island, much better cameras with 3x optical zoom, OS updates for the foreseeable future, etc. A few weeks ago this was still Apple’s flagship phone. That means it also still has at least a year of manufacturer’s warranty (2 years by law in the EU).

So yeah, that’s what I’d recommend people do. It’s much better value for money. Is the new camera button really worth €400 to you?

It’s similar to the advice people give about MacBooks - the updates each year are so tiny, you can buy last year’s model for much cheaper and it’s almost the same device. And if you’re coming from an Intel Mac/Older iPhone you’ll still get a massive upgrade.

 

[nutriousmitten]

With only 3 days of preorders so far, it is way too early to be making assumptions as to lower numbers just yet.

Just projecting one's own thoughts as to why they won't (probably) buy, and extending that to the entire global market?

Too heavy? Same weight as the 14 and prior. Plus very few people here have enough touched a 16 yet to claim that.

 

[Dulcimer]

I doubt how well Kuo could estimate demand from preorder dates but I hope the general point is true.

Would hopefully make Apple rethink some of their decisions for their biggest product line. They’ve been mostly lazy the last few years.

 

[iluvcrap2000]

if you can't get the pro models from Apple till 2nd week of October, Hows is that NOT good? They are sold out. the regular 15's are available. I HAD to buy one because my battery is at 54% and I'm not gonna wait another year. Eff it.

 

[RealMonster]

False. The A18 Pro does not have any hardware features not supported by A18 outside of the media block. There is no extra instruction set for ML.

I concede I may have gotten the interpretation wrong, but:

The A18 Pro has ML (machine learning) accelerators designed to be used with Apple Intelligence. The ML accelerators save power on the iPhone 16 Pro models by running tasks requiring high efficiency and low latency using the CPU without having to rely on the neural engine.

Source: https://www.phonearena.com/news/a18...cessors-faster-more-energy-efficient_id162371

It SEEMS to be listed as a pro feature only.

In any case, the fact remains that it is NOT the same SOC. It just isn't. There are whole sections of the chip that likely don't exist on the base model--fabbing costs are too high to crank out that much silicon just to waste it. The MEANINGFUL differences to the consumer might be small, but for everyone to say that it just comes down to the 1 GPU core is obviously wrong.

Lol. I'm literally a Pro iOS developer with 20 years of Apple programming experience. Look at the age of my Macrumors account for a moment and notice it was registered in 2001.

Irrelevant. Just because you're a Pro iOS developer doesn't mean you need a pro phone as your daily carry. I'm a professional game developer and my personal machine is an M1 Mac, even though I've been working on PC and console games for 20 years (and the only console I personally paid money for at home is a Nintendo Switch, despite only working on XBox and Playstation games my whole career). If you don't care about the features on the phone, then you don't need it. The pro iPhone is for media people more than programmers. I HAPPEN to want the 5x telephoto lens, it has nothing to do with whether or not it's a high powered development device. It would be impossible to live my life if my job were the lens that I had to analyze every purchase through.

 

[mozumder]

With only 3 days of preorders so far, it is way too early to be making assumptions as to lower numbers just yet.

Just projecting one's own thoughts as to why they won't (probably) buy, and extending that to the entire global market?

Too heavy? Same weight as the 14 and prior. Plus very few people here have enough touched a 16 yet to claim that.

You can definitely make some early predictions about just a few days worth of data. You don't need millions of data points to make predictions.

 

[Eorlas]

demand seems about exactly as i would expect. people who are enough generations behind to feel like upgrading will, people who are already on annual upgrades ofc will. the overwhelming majority are overwhelmingly underwhelmed by the changes.

apple: "it's the best iphone yet!" <- i certainly hope so, did ya spend the R&D to make something less good?
apple: "it's a beautiful new design" <- i mean, i can see literal differences, but it doesnt make the overall design substantially different from the last 3...4...5 rectangles with slightly curved edges.
apple: "it has AI!" <- most people are either wary of or dont understand what this can do for them yet. there's also lots of AI gray areas to be covered.
apple: "we have a new color for the pro max!" <- it's another subtle color in titanium. the new "darker" black still isnt as black as either the matte or jet black of the iphone 7s era. i was clearing photos from my phone today, came across the matte black. there is a substantial difference.

the majority of their "new" features just dont matter to most people. content creators will love the pro devices A/V feature improvements. everyone else in the last 3-5 iterations of iphone already have something pretty fantastic.

and year after year of hearing "it's the best iphone yet! best we've ever made!" makes me roll my eyes.

i'm upgrading and have my reasons for it, i dont think anyone should be surprised that there's still many stores where many configs are available day 1. the next time an iphone actually sells out completely at preorders and has far out shipping dates will likely be when faceid goes under the screen and any notch/island/hole punch disappears, and/or when a folding iphone is introduced.

given what some say about smaller, cheaper iphones, i wouldnt be surprised if such a device also sold out fast.

but nothing they've done in at least the last 3 years was earth shattering. i think the last time i really got excited was when 120hz came to the iphone, and when the notch was reduced in size to the island.

 

[dampfnudel]

if you can't get the pro models from Apple till 2nd week of October, Hows is that NOT good? They are sold out. the regular 15's are available. I HAD to buy one because my battery is at 54% and I'm not gonna wait another year. Eff it.

If I order a 16 Pro right now, any capacity or color, I can pick it up on September 21 at my nearest Apple Store or another Apple Store near me. With previous iPhones three days after preorders went live, you would be waiting until late October or early November. It looks like my previous comment is correct, demand will be lower with the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max.

 

[BelgianChoklit]

Really strange considering the Cookie did say it's the best iPhone they've ever made.

 

[dampfnudel]

If someone from Apple is reading this, here’s a bit of advice for increasing demand for the 16 Pro and 16 Pro…COLORS!!! Demand might still tail off after Christmas, but at least until then, sales would probably be good enough to bring back loving memories from the past.

At your iPad event, after you announce all of your new iPads including the iPad mini 7, add one last thing. Announce the addition of two or three new colors for the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max. Add Ultramarine, Pink and if you want to be generous, Teal. All of these colors are possible with Titanium.

 

[dampfnudel]

Doesn't take an analyst to understand the reason for the lower-than-expected demand is the 16 Pro is such a minimal upgrade on the 15 Pro. Slightly bigger screen, slightly bigger battery, the usual nominal processor/camera upgrades, and that camera control button. Nothing "must have" or a long-awaited update (E.g. USB-C last year).

Apple really shot themselves in the foot by not at least introducing a new colour or a colour we haven't had for a while in a Pro (red, green?). The 'Desert Titanium' is for all intents and purposes Rose Gold to most. I might have been persuaded to get a 16 Pro with a different/new colour, but I'm just going to keep my Natural Ti 15 Pro for another year.

Also there being no major difference between the Pro and Pro Max, just different screen and battery sizes.

There are people who currently have a 12 Pro, 13 Pro and even a few with a deep purple 14 Pro who are thinking about getting a 16 in ultramarine, pink or teal. That says it all.

 

[macfacts]

Who’s “we”?

When apple does good in sales, many apple fans think some how they are getting rich too, when they only have a hand full of shares.

 

[nfl46]

No reason for me to get the 16PM since I have the 15PM. I don’t feel as if the upgrade is worth it for me.

 

[dominiongamma]

The real competition for the iPhone 16 Pro is the iPhone 15 Pro.

I upgraded from an iPhone X - a couple of days after the Apple event, I ordered an iPhone 15 Pro from a third-party refurb seller. I had been intending to buy a 16 Pro, but I checked the 15 prices out of curiosity and it was just much better value for money. The unit I got was “like new” quality - screen and body are all flawless, brand new battery (literally 0 cycles). It could be a unit somebody sent back and never even used.

I paid €950 for a 15 Pro 256, compared to €1350 for a 16 Pro 256. That’s about 1/3 off.

And for 2/3 of the price, I get all the same Apple Intelligence features as the 16 Pro, a huge upgrade to performance, the 120Hz screen, USB-C, the dynamic island, much better cameras with 3x optical zoom, OS updates for the foreseeable future, etc. A few weeks ago this was still Apple’s flagship phone. That means it also still has at least a year of manufacturer’s warranty (2 years by law in the EU).

So yeah, that’s what I’d recommend people do. It’s much better value for money. Is the new camera button really worth €400 to you?

It’s similar to the advice people give about MacBooks - the updates each year are so tiny, you can buy last year’s model for much cheaper and it’s almost the same device. And if you’re coming from an Intel Mac/Older iPhone you’ll still get a massive upgrade.

To me the extra couple of hours battery life, and the button is worth it

 

[dampfnudel]

I pretend to be shocked.

The regular 16 had more noticeable changes than the pros this year, so I’m not surprised the regulars are selling more than the pros.

Some people online who have an older Pro model have voiced interest in the 16 or 16 Plus. That tells me that Apple’s conservative approach to colors with the Pro may be starting to bite them in the Apple. If they had offered the same colors for the 16 Pro/16 Pro Max as the 16/16 Plus, demand would be higher.

 

[rp100]

I’m planning on staying with my 13pro for at least another year. Probably sounds cliche by now, but what am I really getting by laying out at least $1000? 13pro was the first model with ProMotion and it feels as snappy as it did on day one.

My theory is that Apple has been intentionally nerfing its phones for years (via iOS revisions) in an effort to encourage upgrades. Now that the Pro models have 120hz ProMotion, it becomes a lot harder to degrade performance without it being readily apparent to the user. That, or the hardware and software have matured to the point that the software updates aren’t affecting performance. Just a theory…

 

[kalsta]

I just searched this thread for 'cost of living', and even just 'living', and came up with zero comments, so I guess no one has mentioned it yet? That's another obvious reason why you might expect sales to be on the decline in the last couple of years.

Aside from that, I don't see this as bad news. If consumers are learning to be satisfied with tech that is two or three years old (I'm still very happy with my four-year-old iPhone 12 Pro), that's wonderful! Better for your wallet. Better for the environment. (Apple shareholders may see it differently of course. )

 

[pi6xjdskfa]

Call me insane/apple fanboy/both who started out using a ZX spectrum 48k computer in 1985 and now using Macbook Pro 14" w/ 128gb ram. I luckily found a job that combines both love for computers, technology, and images/video. I used to upgrade iPhone every 2-3 years but life is short and I have now upgraded every year(14/15/16) as a lot of my work needs to be delivered very quickly and minutes count. I now edit 4k video on 15 Pro Max, upload edited video via google drive to client, sort/caption/transmit 50megapixel files and ftp them to client. I can leave the Mac at home now and that is a HUGE advantage. The USB-C port changed everything. Every cent I have put into apple gear has been paid back 5x and more in work. If I can get 15-20% faster chip and 2-3 hours extra battery life on 16 Pro Max it will be worth the upgrade. In the past I have handed down my phones to close relatives but this year since my immediate family all upgrade to 15 pro/max I will trade in the 14 and keep the 15 for gift it to sibling when I visit them abroad. For me the more expensive the tool the more advantage one can get from it for a certain amount of time.