I wonder how many more Pre-orders they would have had if AT&T didn't charge the extra 250.00 early upgrade fee......like they didn't in the past. I personally know 4 people that didn't get the 5 this year because of that.
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iPhone 5 Sales Top Five Million in Launch Weekend
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Seems odd that some analysts think this is a poor number. Consumers and enthusiasts seem to think it's an incredible number. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Personally, it seems like this is not as successful as the iPhone 4S, if you account for the additional retail coverage the iPhone 5 has. I'm curious how each launch really breaks down once you consider the number of countries and number of retail outlets carrying the phone.
Apple has another huge success on their hands, no doubt. But I don't think they had the same whiz-bang "Siri" killer feature to sell the iPhone 5. In fact, the maps app has been a downgrade. My wife and I are on the every-other upgrade cycle, so we each got a 64GB 5, since we are coming from the 4 and don't have Siri.
Could they have hit 8m units with less of a debacle with Passbook and Maps? Probably not.
Personally, it seems like this is not as successful as the iPhone 4S, if you account for the additional retail coverage the iPhone 5 has. I'm curious how each launch really breaks down once you consider the number of countries and number of retail outlets carrying the phone.
Apple has another huge success on their hands, no doubt. But I don't think they had the same whiz-bang "Siri" killer feature to sell the iPhone 5. In fact, the maps app has been a downgrade. My wife and I are on the every-other upgrade cycle, so we each got a 64GB 5, since we are coming from the 4 and don't have Siri.
Could they have hit 8m units with less of a debacle with Passbook and Maps? Probably not.
I haven't posted on this site in over 7 months, but I had to login. The maps probably work fine for many people. Also consider that not everyone uses their phone to get them from point A to point B. Guess what? I maybe use Maps on my iPhone 4S/Galaxy Nexus every 2 weeks at the MOST. I usually know where I'm going and don't rely on a mobile device to guide me.
It'll be a sad day when there is a large-scale network outage and nobody knows how to get anywhere because they constantly use their devices to navigate them on short trips.
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I think they knew on Day 1 that Maps was sub-par but needed to get it out in order to get customers to use it and give them the information they need to improve it.
They are caught between a rock and a hard place. They want to lessen their dependence on Google, but since Google owned the map data (and more importantly the data analytics), they had to start from scratch. It's not just gathering data. Tom-Tom gave them lots of it. It's the analysis that is difficult, and explains why traffic estimates are off and why bridges look funny, airports are appearing in cornfields, and turn-by-turn instructions may be off.
That is based off of growth numbers for previous launch and the growth the pre-orders showed. Apple have always shown 50-60% growth over the previous year launches. Also, pre-orders were about twice, so 100% growth YtoY.
But if the 4 to 5 number is to be believed, they've only had 20% actual growth in unit sales. That's a big drop in growth. But frankly, 50-60% YtoY is not sustainable forever, so it's not really a surprise to most reasonable human being. Analysts however are not reasonable, nor do I think they are human...
I know if Airplay worked on a GSIII I would pick one of those up now, I would rather have the bigger screen. But since I have the ecosystem I feel like I am better off with an iPhone so I will get one. (unless Airplay will work on the GSII) 
I think once supply comes back in the quarterly numbers will end up fine. And that's what really counts. Not the day by day reckoning.
LTE is the big draw in this phone. Anyone in a coverage area will notice how much quicker it is as downloading.
The December quarter will be the big indicator. The 4S sold 37 million that quarter and 35 million the next. Apple's press release today has probably tempered expectations for the September 2012 quarter (as surely the 4S sales slumped in the run-up to the 5).
I think Apple wished it had more phones to sell right now. If it had 8 million to sell, it may have sold that many this weekend. The stock has stabilized a bit and is off the lows from the opening (the general market is also down today).
However, there are launches in 22 countries this weekend, plus more sales in stores this week. I think it's reasonable to estimate that they will have 10 million iPhone 5 sales in September (though Apple is unlikely to break out that number specifically).
All the air freight units are sold. Now the sea container units will arrive all over the world for massive deployments. Then continue for a full year thereafter.
The "analysts" should get used to this "supply chain" method Apple has been using for several product release cycles now.
Rocketman
The "analysts" should get used to this "supply chain" method Apple has been using for several product release cycles now.
Rocketman
I apologise if my opening remark was rude. I did take the time to read your post, let's have a close look at your comments:
"the crazier fanboys may be deluded but who are they hurting" - believe me as someone who has been on the end of some of these people's comments they are most certainly not harmless. Many of their comments are downright vicious and offensive.
"I don't care if the trolls are right because they're joyless gits who seem to enjoy ruining other people's fun". Joyless gits? Maybe they are just expressing their point of view - do you believe in free speech?
"Similarly there are some Apple fans who are deluded or who lack a sense of proportion but why should that matter? I don't go to Blackberry fansites and take the piss out of them because of the plastic keyboards and falling sales. I don't try to make Nokia fans feel bad for their preferred brand's lack of recent success. Why would I?" You have obviously never read any of the other fan site because they are full of Apple fans slagging off the other brands.
My point is that fanatical fanboys are wrong whichever side of the fence they sit. They are spiteful, vicious cyber bullies pure and simple. They are most certainly not harmless. And quite frankly to accuse anyone of being a troll simply because they something negative is also extremely rude.
Five million iPhone 5 being sold is a major fail. Gene Munster swore that Apple would sell at least 8 million iPhones. He set the bar and Apple stumbled. Tim Cook's excitement likely goes no further than Tim Cook. I doubt any Apple shareholders are excited. iPhone hype is a killer for investors. There is far too much media coverage about long lines and high demand. In the end, Apple never sells enough iPhones to impress Wall Street and then the share price tanks. Meanwhile, Google goes on doing whatever it is doing and the share price continues to rise. Google Maps must be worth millions of iPhone 5s. I'm not sure why. Does Google even get any revenue from Google Maps?
How many iPhone 5 sales will it take to boost Apple's share price? I don't think even 50 million in a quarter will be quite enough. Look for Apple target prices to suddenly drop based on today's weak iPhone sales. Apple shareholders should forget about seeing $750 any time this year.
How many iPhone 5 sales will it take to boost Apple's share price? I don't think even 50 million in a quarter will be quite enough. Look for Apple target prices to suddenly drop based on today's weak iPhone sales. Apple shareholders should forget about seeing $750 any time this year.
That last sentence is quite true, at least as far as market trading goes. Lots of trades are done by computer algorithms now. While it works most of the time, it can fail spectacularly. Just ask Knight Capital. Also witness the May 2010 "flash crash."
In retrospect, the analysts were wrong to assume that 100% pre-order sales growth would translate into 100% year on year growth. Obviously that can't continue forever, since if it did, Apple would need to sell 64 million phones on launch weekend in 2015 to continue the growth rate between the 4 and 4S.
Apple's press release also seemed designed to temper expectations of September quarter sales. They pointed out that a lot of the pre-orders won't hit their sales numbers until October. Some analysts were predicting sales of 12+ million iPhone 5s in the quarter ended September 29th, which would likely have offset whatever sales drop occurred in July and August. With the actual iPhone 5 numbers coming out, my guess is that we'll see September quarter iPhone sales in the 20-25 million range. We may well see 8-10 million iPhone 5 sales in the first week given that stores will receive more shipments this week, and the phone is launching in 22 more countries.
However, this should dispel the notion that they were holding back stock. What it does seem to indicate is that they don't have enough inventory to go around. Some of analysts who were predicting launch weekend sales of 8-10 million based it on expectations that Apple was able to resolve the supply issues (particularly the Sharp screen, which was known to be a bottleneck at one point).
But how many have orders still pending (like me) that aren't included in that sales figure? According to Cook's statement they sold every phone available. It's not like all these stores have phones in stock that nobody is buying.
Five million iPhone 5 being sold is a major fail. Gene Munster swore that Apple would sell at least 8 million iPhones. He set the bar and Apple stumbled. ...
How many iPhone 5 sales will it take to boost Apple's share price? I don't think even 50 million in a quarter will be quite enough. Look for Apple target prices to suddenly drop based on today's weak iPhone sales. Apple shareholders should forget about seeing $750 any time this year.
Not necessarily. Full disclosure: I'm long Apple.
Remember that the stock dropped to $575 in July after the "earnings miss" and was up to $700 on Friday. Even now it seems to have stabilized around $690. Since Apple doesn't release sales estimates for individual products (they release only general forecasts once a quarter), analysts are basically just making educated guesses like the rest of us based on what they can glean from other public sources (such as sales of known suppliers to Apple).
I think analysts will be more realistic with their sales expectations for the September and December quarters. 50 million iPhones for calendar Q4 would be an achievement.
I think I get what you're trying to say but ultimately if you don't build what customers want you won't have any customers. That's why Apple nearly went out of business in the 1990's. I'm sure the iPhone 5 will do very well because a lot of people will buy it regardless, but I'm convinced that the larger screen Android and Windows devices will start carving out an increasingly larger share and take sales away from the iPhone.
With the early shipping of many pre-orders slated for October, quite the contrary. It still seems highly likely that the fabricated shortages are there. They will always be there. Stock will always be "constrained" for launch weekends, that builds tons of hype, and shipping units on Sunday/Monday loses no sales. It's win-win.
How many?
How many are activated? Vs how many different models are there? aka activations per capita will suck for some be okay for others and good for a few. How many different tweaks for each phone aka inconsistent user interfaces between someones phone and tablet and home computer running windows. My user interface is identical on my phone and tablet with some even being the same across my computer. I can stream wirelessly with apple tv. Siri (droid does tv ad) will open my apps and follow my commands.
Thats like saying how many Windows computers vs apple computers are sold daily. but if you look at numbers per MFR they suck, save for 2 or 3
How many are activated? Vs how many different models are there? aka activations per capita will suck for some be okay for others and good for a few. How many different tweaks for each phone aka inconsistent user interfaces between someones phone and tablet and home computer running windows. My user interface is identical on my phone and tablet with some even being the same across my computer. I can stream wirelessly with apple tv. Siri (droid does tv ad) will open my apps and follow my commands.
Thats like saying how many Windows computers vs apple computers are sold daily. but if you look at numbers per MFR they suck, save for 2 or 3
It's funny how so many of the posters here have no problem when analysts predict a $1 trillion market cap or $1000 share price for Apple, but when shares fall because Apple misses the very targets that would justify these valuations it's suddenly ridiculous.
1) Where comments are vicious and offensive I made it very clear that this isn't behaviour that falls under the "harmless fun" heading. I am not defending that behaviour because that behaviour is trollish or troll-like. That was the distinction I was making. Someone who attacks others (those Apple fans on other fansites attacking them for liking something else) they are trolling. You can behave as both an Apple fanboy and a troll - I support the first behaviour and I don't support the second. I think that was pretty clear in my initial comment.
2) I absolutely believe in freedom of speech. Did you see me call for them to be banned? Freedom of speech is important - as is my freedom to disagree. Nor did I in any way lump all negative comments under the heading of "trolling". You're the one who seems to have done that. I was very clear that I was talking about trolling behaviour - people who attack others in order to get into a fight or people who enjoy ruining other people's fun.
3) I didn't say Apple fans don't slag off people on other sites. I said I don't do that and that I don't support such behaviour.
4) I didn't accuse anyone of being a troll. I said I don't like trolls. My god! How defensive are you?
I'll try to make this a bit clearer. I was speaking about the difference between someone being overly enthusiastic and someone who enjoys slagging off other people and starting fights. I like enthusiastic people. I don't like people who troll. What is it about this that you're finding so confusing?
The share price is usually an indication of what the market thinks will happen in the near future, so the launch sales spike will have been factored into the $700 share price. For the share price to go up they need to out perform the market estimates otherwise the share price will remain relatively stable because the market believes it's a fair price.
There's a big difference between giving people something they are asking for and giving people something they will buy. It's not the job of the consumer to know what they want Apple to build. It's Apple's job to come up with something great and sell it to us.
Did Apple get in trouble for not giving people what they want? My understanding is that they got in trouble for trying to make too many products and not making any one product that was really good. Apple's increasing success has coincided with them specifically NOT responding to market trends for everything going and having a stronger focus on a smaller number of products.
Will larger screened phones start taking too much of the market? I have my doubts. I think really big screens are a fad that will pass. Like the really tiny phones of the 90s. You get to a point when things are just silly.
Yes. Supply is not quite ramped up. Around 75%.
Wait till Q1 figures are released 1-22-13.
Purchase your shares before mid Nov. Feb 2013 it's going to $800.
