iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c Sales Top Nine Million in Launch Weekend

[thill]

A little disingenuous given the multiple country launch and two new phones vs one.

There is nothing disingenuous about it. Analysts can read between the lines and the bottomline is the sales numbers blew away Apple and analyst expectations even taking into account multiple models and multiple countries.

It is really okay to say that Apple is seeing great success with this launch. Particularly for the 5S. The sky will not fall. The world will not come to an end.

 

[Dmunjal]

That's astonishing how wrong the analysts were:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...int-potentially-significantly-at-3-4-million/





Seriously, if your job is an analyst working at a professional firm observing Apple all day for years, how can you miss the estimate by that much? Whatever happened the famous supplier check and other inside knowledge?

Very wrong. Here's his defense this morning:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...lped-apple-to-report-nine-million-units-sold/

 

[macs4nw]

…..Selling 9 million phones is a lot, but not when you compare it to over 330 Million subscribers alone in the US…..

It is a lot, considering we're talking about three days here, and as you speculated, it could have been considerably more if supply hadn't been an issue.

I'm even more impressed by those 200 million iOS7 downloads, You know, that "dreaded and fugly new iOS", that many dissed as "not ready for primetime?" I think having given us a first look at it in June, together with some changes, has given people a chance to get used to it and embrace it.

 

[haydn!]

No, it means that some unknown percentage of the 9 million phones are in people's hands.

The rest are sitting in boxes at carrier stores, retail store, and any other outlet that ordered more 5Cs than they could sell.

You quoted Apple's 10-K filing, but didn't understand that "the customer" also refers to the carriers and retail stores - ergo Apple's comment "For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped" specifically means that it is "sold" when it leaves the warehouse for the channel.

But then surely the second sentence quoted accounts for those sold to carriers and resellers? It states Apple defers a portion of revenue for sales where the transaction is not complete and risk to the company remains. This would include resellers, carriers, etc, because those products could be returned (the risk). So if Apple defers this revenue, the 9 million published would, or should be completed sales only.

Either way, most stores and resellers have sold out, so at this moment in time, it's pretty safe to accept 9 million were sold.

 

[Lancer]

I know it's a year off but I think the iPhone 6 will see big changes, bigger screen, more features and continue to out sell past models.

 

[thill]

I know it's a year off but I think the iPhone 6 will see big changes, bigger screen, more features and continue to out sell past models.

Most likely, but I really don't want a bigger screen. I really cross shopped a Galaxy 4S, and the thing was just too big for me to casually carry around in my pocket. I really think the 5/5S is the ideal size for me.

 

[johnswilson1]

Um...

Didn't they make it available to more countries than ever though?

I'm a kill-joy I know.

lol. Do you think Samsung increases sales by 80% when they add two countries? No? Okay, then.

 

[applefan10466]

A little disingenuous given the multiple country launch and two new phones vs one.

Not disingenuous when analyst estimates took into account multiple country launch and two new phones and Apple still blew those away.

 

[JobsGang]

And AGAIN I was right - the 5S is an under-produced success, while the 5C is a FLOP, particularly since these stats were NOT published by Apple nor did they consider, in their "best ever" statement, that those sales concerned many more countries than on other occasions.

Now who is going to disagree with me when I state that Cook USED to be a good COO until he became a bad CEO?

You're welcome.

hahahaha you believe this nonsense?

 

[AidenShaw]

Apple quarterly conference calls. I've listened to enough of them, mostly boring, but a few of them, various Apple staff explained this fact of what they meant by sales figures.

Here's the link to kdarling's post with Apple's legally binding 10-K statement: https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/15865390/

But then surely the second sentence quoted accounts for those sold to carriers and resellers? It states Apple defers a portion of revenue for sales where the transaction is not complete and risk to the company remains. This would include resellers, carriers, etc, because those products could be returned (the risk). So if Apple defers this revenue, the 9 million published would, or should be completed sales only.

The first sentence ends with "and collection is probable". It would seem to be reasonable to say that Apple will "probably" be paid for the shipment.

 

[Lazy]

No. Pre-orders have always been counted as the opening weekend sales, so long as they ship by then (credit cards only get charged once a phone is shipped, which turns a pre-order into a sale).

Hey is there an easy way to find out if someone already answered a post on MacRumors? I figured someone would have already pointed out Kendo's error, but didn't want to go through more than a couple of pages of posts looking for prior art...

That would be an excellent feature. It would require taking into account the upvotes on a reply, which might make it non-trivial. But still...

 

[whiteboytrash]

Some of the hate in this thread is super funny. Its so hilarious that people are so butthurt about Apple doing what they do, produce an awesome gadget that people love and it sells like crack.

I know! People's heads are exploding because it was meant to be the death of Apple.

Instead it's the return of Christ.

 

[koigirl]

Clemson will take care of the entire Raleigh-Durham cabal this year



Football only. basketball is not a real sport.

Surely, surely you were not talking basketball.

 

[Rogifan]

Not disingenuous when analyst estimates took into account multiple country launch and two new phones and Apple still blew those away.

Exactly. All these "estimates" took into account Hong Kong and China as well as the 5C and they still didn't predict 9M. Gene Munster predicted 5-6M. And now rather than admitting he was wrong he pulls a 3M number out of his arse and calls it 5C stuffed in the channel. It's comical really.

 

[Rogifan]

Thanks for biting:

1 - When has Apple released more than ONE iPhone line at the same time? NEVER. This is why they have never had any reason to break out sales by model upon launch - now they do, unless they don't want to show that there is a problem out there;

2 - The iPad mini IS a flop as it served only to reduce Apple's healthy margins on the normal iPad;

3 - iPhone 4S: 7 countries - iPhone 5: 9 countries - iPhones 5S and 5C: 11 countries, including tiny China. How is that NOT relevant, particularly considering the thousands of scalpers there?

1 - Apple has never broken out MBP vs MBA or iPad vs iPad mini or iPod touch vs nano vs shuffle. Or sales of 21" iMac vs 27". They've never broken out iPhone sales between newest phone and previous years model. So why in the world would they start now? And why give that kind of information to your competitors, especially when most of them don't reveal any kind of sales figures at all?

2 - Do you have some sales data to back up your assertion that the mini is a flop? I'm not sure what margins have to do with it. Apple would rather someone buy a mini than no iPad at all (or a competitors product).

3 - So they went from 7 to 9 launch countries. So what? 9 million phones is 9 million phones. It's more phones than they've ever done before. When the iPhone 4 launched Steve Jobs bragged about 1.5M launch sales. Just 4 years later its now up to 9 million. That's pretty damn impressive no matter how you look at it.

 

[AidenShaw]

9 million phones is 9 million phones. It's more phones than they've ever done before.

Even if it's really 5½ million because 3½ million are unsold 5Cs sitting on the shelves?

Why do so many people blindly believe Apple's numbers, when it's rather clear that there are a *lot* of 5Cs in inventory rather than in end-users hands?

 

[12vElectronics]

When the iPhone 4 launched Steve Jobs bragged about 1.5M launch sales. Just 4 years later its now up to 9 million. That's pretty damn impressive no matter how you look at it.

Truth. Doesn't matter how you get it done, as long as you do.

 

[vvswarup]

Not bad for a launch sale, eh. I guess the rumors of Apple's death are greatly exaggerated. On second thought, it's probably just a "rounding error" or "pent-up demand." Let's see what happens next quarter.

 

[kdarling]

I was under the impression for online sales Apple didn't count something as sold until the consumer's credit card was charged. Does the consumer's card get charged immediately or not until the device is preparing for shipment?

For online individual sales, Apple does not count something as sold until it is delivered to the buyer. - ref Apple 10-K filing

Apple quarterly conference calls. I've listened to enough of them, mostly boring, but a few of them, various Apple staff explained this fact of what they meant by sales figures.

Then you might want to go back and listen to the calls again. They quite often talk about the fact that they're NOT just reporting end user sales, but also sales (and over-sales) into retailer inventory.

For example, Tim Cook admitted in the FQ3 call that their FQ2 sales numbers had included millions of iPhones that ended up sitting on retail store shelves until the next quarter:

"And so what that did was, it increased sell in over sell through by 2.6 million units." - Tim Cook

(Sell-in to retailers was greater than sell-through to end users.)

Thus FQ2 (35 million announced sales) looked better than it actually was, while FQ3 (26 million) looked worse than it actually was. Retailers bought much less than expected in FQ3, simply because they still had extra inventory left over from buying too much in FQ2.

The same explanation was used for a $2B nose dive in sales to resellers in China, and to explain a multi-million drop in iPad sales worldwide. In all those cases, Apple's sales to retailers were high one quarter, but low the next, because end user sales were not as high as the announced sales.

All the above just in 2012, btw.

This is not unusual. Every company sometimes has quarters where retailers buy too much, and then sales slack off the next quarter. As long as sales pick up and don't continue to slide quarter after quarter, it's nothing to get too excited about.

 

[CausticPuppy]

Even if it's really 5½ million because 3½ million are unsold 5Cs sitting on the shelves?

Why do so many people blindly believe Apple's numbers, when it's rather clear that there are a *lot* of 5Cs in inventory rather than in end-users hands?

Source for your 3.5 million number?

 

[AidenShaw]

Source for your 3.5 million number?

Ignoring the fact that you can't provide a source to support the 9 million number as end-user sales (or specifically, to refute the 3½ million channel sales that Apple is claiming as "incredible demand" when they're really "incredible strain on the shelves in the warehouses"), I'll simply point you at Gene Munster's (an analyst who's definitely a friend of Cupertino) opinion that Apple Actually Only Sold 5.5 Million iPhones During Opening Weekend, Says Gene Munster.

If Apple says 9 million, and Gene Munster says 5½, I'll go with Munster. Apple has been lying for decades, and nobody but the fans believe them. Munster has some skin in it - and has much to lose if he's wrong.

Take off the blinders - the unbelievably good "9 million sales" is literally unbelievable - millions of those phones are sitting on shelves because the buyers don't want them.

Apple fans have often held the belief that "Apple counts end-user sales, Samsung counts shipments to channel". The truth is that both count shipments to channel - and the channel is full of Iphone 5C boxes (although yellow seems to be rather popular, so the shelves may be straining under the weight of the other anemic colors).

 

[DeathChill]

If Apple says 9 million, and Gene Munster says 5½, I'll go with Munster. Apple has been lying for decades, and nobody but the fans believe them. Munster has some skin in it - and has much to lose if he's wrong.

I laughed a bit. Munster is consistently wrong, along with the rest of the analysts. Not commenting on this particular situation.

 

[imageWIS]

Apple is doomed, looks like Blackberry wins again.... oh, wait...

 

[linuxcooldude]

Ignoring the fact that you can't provide a source to support the 9 million number as end-user sales (or specifically, to refute the 3½ million channel sales that Apple is claiming as "incredible demand" when they're really "incredible strain on the shelves in the warehouses"), I'll simply point you at Gene Munster's (an analyst who's definitely a friend of Cupertino) opinion that Apple Actually Only Sold 5.5 Million iPhones During Opening Weekend, Says Gene Munster.

If Apple says 9 million, and Gene Munster says 5½, I'll go with Munster. Apple has been lying for decades, and nobody but the fans believe them. Munster has some skin in it - and has much to lose if he's wrong.

Take off the blinders - the unbelievably good "9 million sales" is literally unbelievable - millions of those phones are sitting on shelves because the buyers don't want them.

Apple fans have often held the belief that "Apple counts end-user sales, Samsung counts shipments to channel". The truth is that both count shipments to channel - and the channel is full of Iphone 5C boxes (although yellow seems to be rather popular, so the shelves may be straining under the weight of the other anemic colors).

So in other words, its not proof. Analysts can only guess most of the time. As you said its his opinion. I'd tend to believe Apple more then an analyst based on profits they make.

 

[AidenShaw]

I laughed a bit. Munster is consistently wrong, along with the rest of the analysts. Not commenting on this particular situation.

So, please list Munster's comments/predictions over the last few years, and how they differed from the final reality.


How about

"People are going to be very frustrated with the way Apple handled this," said Gene Munster, a technology analyst at stockbroker Piper Jaffray.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2009/jan/15/steve-jobs-apple-nasdaq

Yeah - people were upset that Jobs' terminal illness was hidden from Apple's owners. Rightfully so.

----------

So in other words, its not proof. Analysts can only guess most of the time. As you said its his opinion. I'd tend to believe Apple more then an analyst based on profits they make.

Analysts have to guess because Apple doesn't announce their financials with any useful precision.

If this morning Apple had said:

• we sold 1.7 million Iphone 5S in various colors
• we sold 470,000 5C in various colors
• we pumped 6.5 million into the channel, of which we won't know for while which are sitting on shelves to be returned, and which were sold by tiny Radio Shack stores in neighborhood strip malls.

it wouldn't be an issue.

The last point is especially cogent. Is there any Apple fan so blinded by loyalty to the brand that they believe that on Monday morning Apple has hard sales figures for every AT&T and Verizon and Radio Shack and Best Buy and T-Mobile and Sprint and ... store so that Apple can give a solid figure on sell-through the end-users?

I hope not -- today's figures are sell-in to the channel plus Apple's direct sales.

The fans would know that the "9 million" number is nonsense, and so would the rational ones.