Hey Blik. Good to see you over here too, bro. I agree. You'll most likely get it.
What people have to remember is that Carriers (ATT, Verizon, Spring, TMobile) unlike Apple don't acutally have ANY STOCK right now, ANYWHERE. They haven't received their shipments from Apple or direct from China yet. So what they're reporting to us, in shipment weeks, is an 'estimate' of the stock they ordered from Apple based on trends. So it they estimated 1,500,000 units then starting with unit 1,500,001 - they will report to your account Est.Ship Date Oct... blah, blah,blah.. BUT - - -- since pre-order night they're reported the REAL numbers to Apple and now Apple will be checking their supply lines and eventually report back somewhere later in this process.
There was a website - one of these threads talked about last year where we could go watch the supply being delivered from China to various UPS hubs around the world. I'm not sure that necessarily told us HOW many phones were on each shipment - but something in the back of mind thought that was important from last year.
All that to say.. I know knew of '1' guy I followed on these threads last year - that had the early October week dates this early on and DIDN'T get his phone on launch day. And THAT guy got it on Monday. NOW.. if you start to see a ship date last week of Oct into early NOVEMBER.. THEN you are ACTUALLY screwed. Those people did NOT get theirs on launch day.