Specs aren't confirmed yet, but if they follow the release strategy of the previous 3 SE's it'll launch with the same chipset as the 16.
The SE3 launched 6 months after the 13 with the same chipset.
The SE2 launched 6 months after the 11 with the same chipset.
Compared to the base 15 you lose a second camera and dynamic island, but gain an updated chipset and the ram to run apple intelligence, and save $200. I'd actually take the SE4 over the 15. It may even cannibalise a lot of the sales from the 16.
The last paragraph is why I personally think we won't see the same pricing structure this time around. If the SE4 is priced at $499 with the rumored specs it will cannibalize the 14, 15, and even 16 to a much greater extent than the SE2 and SE3 ever did to their peers. There's the old saying that the only constant is change, and I believe that will prove itself true once again.
Why? Three reasons, then two more:
1) Screen Size. All three previous SE models had smaller screens than the current base model phone. Not true this time around. The SE4 is expected to have a 6.1" display, same as the 14, 15, and 16. For right or wrong, smaller screens equate to smaller value in consumers eyes.
2) FaceID across the board. Touch ID made the SE2 and SE3 look very dated vs their peers, to an extent that the notch does not do vs dynamic island.
3) Apple messed up with the iPhone 15. It should have had an A17 with 8GB RAM, not an A16 with 6GB. The 15 Pro got an A17 pro, so what happened with the base model iPhone 15 not getting a base A17? I understand they had yield issues on that processor node, but this is what really makes the SE4 too good of a deal for Apple to sell at $499.
Point 3 expanded on:
- AI. It's dumb imo, but it's still Apple's flagship marketing feature. The SE4 is rumored to have it while the iPhone 15 doesn't. There was no comparable flagship feature for the SE2 and SE3 that made them obviously "better" than the prior gen main-line phones. If the iPhone 15 got an A17 instead of A16, this point probably doesn't exist for me to make.
- The processor and RAM jump over the 1 year prior gen base model iPhone is bigger this time. The SE2 and SE3 had a one gen processor jump and a 0 GB RAM jump over the iPhone XR and iPhone 12, respectively. The SE4 is expected to have a 2 gen processor jump and 2 GB RAM jump vs the iPhone 15. If the iPhone 15 got an A17 with 8GB, this point wouldn't be true either, but that didn't happen.
A $699 iPhone 15 with an A16 (6GB), dynamic island, extra lens, and no AI is simply a horrid deal vs a $499 iPhone SE4 with an A18 (8GB), notch and AI in a way that wasn't true with the SE2 and SE3 launches. At the end of the day, Apple wants to upsell, not cannibalize a higher priced product to a lower priced one.
Apple did surprise me this gen with 16GB base ram at no added charge on Macs (so they can support AI), but they don't maintain a long tail of old models on the Mac side like they do with iPhones. I could be wrong, but I'm not expecting that pricing miracle to strike twice. My expectation is that the iPhone SE4 to be the cheapest iPhone with AI support, but not the cheapest iPhone.
Aside: This has almost no chance, but it's an idea I can't shake since that one "16E" rumor as it makes the most sense to me: iPhone 15 discontinued and replaced by 16E at $699 with an A18, AI support, dynamic island, one lens. This fixes the iPhone 15 "mistake" and normalizes 1 camera lens ahead of the Air's launch. SE3 discontinued. iPhone 14 dropped to $499 and discontinued sometime between now and next fall. We could still get an SE4 in addition to a 16E, but at $499 I'd expect a A16 and no AI support. If they could figure out a base A17, maybe there's a $599 version that does support AI... which could also go in the base iPad.
In any case, I expect only one of the following will be true: the iPhone SE4 is $499 or the SE4 has an A18 processor; not both. Hopefully Apple ends all speculation one way or another next week.