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iPhone X Supply Estimated to Remain Extremely Tight Until Next Year Due to Earlier Production Issues
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And... you'll realize the marketing works especially well to the point people think things like above.
If only 20 million phones at (for discussion) avg price of $1,050 each. That comes to a cool $21 BILLION in sales over 2 months. Must exceed the annual budget for hundreds of countries.
And
And
Seriously enough already. It's just a phone, it has been years since a smart phone was a Jesus Phone. It does the same stuff that every other smartphone has done for 5 years now...
This has to be the 100th time I've already seen this story on this site. Ok, we got, it supply constraint.
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Amen, enough with this story already
I was thinking about getting up at midnight and hitting refresh on the order web page about a thousand times. Just not worth the stress. I think this phone is going to have a lot of first generation type of issues. Going to wait and see on this one.
Thanks for posting this!!
Based on this I have sold all my appl stock and I am switching to Android.
I will get the excellent Pixel phone with the special screen because posters say Google phones get updates.
That was close...
Based on this I have sold all my appl stock and I am switching to Android.
I will get the excellent Pixel phone with the special screen because posters say Google phones get updates.
That was close...
Well, if the 2-3m # for launch turns out to be correct then it is new news. That kind of number means the launch availability will be more than tight -- it will essentially be non-existent. That is 2-3m for the world. Bupkis, not just hard to get for launch day -- damn near impossible. Most likely IF you order at 3am on Fri you just might have a chance to get it before Tgiving.
There is always supposed shortages. With every iPhone release. You’ll get your phone when it’s available.
I don’t believe the rumors. It’s all to build hype.
I don’t believe the rumors. It’s all to build hype.
Agree 100%
I'm waiting a year or so to see how well Apple has tamed BurnIn on OLEDs.
I'm glad they're continuing to make a premium line with both TouchID and LCD, so if I need a new phone in the next year or two there is still a good replacement option.
In other shocking news it has been discovered that water is wet!!
But Apple water is better than Android water....
Agreed. I got the 8+ on launch day last month and am very happy to sit out this X and get the 2018 version.
Right. You are selling your AAPL based on a whisper on a rumor sight entailing tight supply of a phone for one quarter. Either you trolling or you should not be owning stocks. I can't believe an investor would make such important decisions based on thin air.
I also own AAPL and am dismayed by what seems will be a disappointing holiday quarter (compared to last years's quarter) because of a like supply issue, but that is the short view. It would take something a lot more permanent looking or a better looking opportunity for me to part with my shares given the decent dividend yield + share price growth.
The long view on Apple is that next year this time the 1st iteration X Phone blues will be done and the X2 launch (likely with a 6.4" plus version) will be smooth and profitable. Meanwhile if tax reform goes through as it looks AAPL will greatly benefit by finally being able to bring home all that $ stockpiled in banks around the world. It means Apple won't have to finance dividends as much or at all anymore among other things. And that just the surface of AAPL's value. It goes deeper.
Most launch day sales are around 12 million, so with the decreased demand due to iPhone 8 purchasers and increased demand due to more countries being included, let’s say that’s going to be 15 million this year.
2-3 million won’t cover that, but most estimates say around 30 million by the end of the year, or just about 2 months from launch. That’s 6-8 weeks for 30 million, but they should be able to make half of that in half the time, so 3-4 weeks wait for people who order day 1. If you can’t wait 3-4 weeks for something... well, that sucks for you I guess.
But while we’re on the 2-3 million number, doesn’t that one seem odd? They got up to full or nearly full speed in September, but will only have 2-3 million in November? And then suddenly they’ll make the other 30 million in November and December, despite only making 10 million a month? The numbers don’t work there, unless you assume Kuo’s 2-3 million number is off somehow. My guess is those 2-3 million will be shipped to retail stores and the pre-order folks’ iPhones will ship directly from Chinese factories and thus won’t be counted in the 2-3 million number.
2-3 million won’t cover that, but most estimates say around 30 million by the end of the year, or just about 2 months from launch. That’s 6-8 weeks for 30 million, but they should be able to make half of that in half the time, so 3-4 weeks wait for people who order day 1. If you can’t wait 3-4 weeks for something... well, that sucks for you I guess.
But while we’re on the 2-3 million number, doesn’t that one seem odd? They got up to full or nearly full speed in September, but will only have 2-3 million in November? And then suddenly they’ll make the other 30 million in November and December, despite only making 10 million a month? The numbers don’t work there, unless you assume Kuo’s 2-3 million number is off somehow. My guess is those 2-3 million will be shipped to retail stores and the pre-order folks’ iPhones will ship directly from Chinese factories and thus won’t be counted in the 2-3 million number.
Isn't this going to be an issue for Apple going forward? Meaning people who don't get their X until say January/February won't be eligible for an upgrade until the following year maybe three months after the next launch. Going to be playing catch up.
Don’t forget the iPhone 5S was supposed to be in short supply due to the new fingerprint sensor being difficult to manufacture.
It’s always something.
Yes, because it is also promotion for those analysts. I mean not as many would know about Kuo if it weren't for his Apple predictions.
2-3m # does seem odd especially because Apple is inviting customers almost worldwide to visit stores on launch day. 3m divided by 55 countries and then again by however many carriers are in those respective countries is just asking for a lot of bitter customers if there is truly no hope of getting one. No one likes to get punked esp when it involves camping out for hours. Doesn't seem to be a move Apple would make if it created more annoyed than happy customers. The TV cameras would eat up that anger -- not the PR Apple would be looking for on launch day. At the AW launch Apple specifically advertised no store sales because it knew inventory was razor thin. Makes me think there will be more than 3m total.
Maybe we are reading it wrong and it's production to-date is up to 3m. Two weeks to launch still so inventory could get closer to 8m by then. Still not enough but enough to save face.
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
- If people are "not buying the 8 because they are waiting on the X" and
- if the X is going to be severely constrained through the end of the year and
- if the vast majority of Apple's revenues comes from iPhone unit sales, then
It seems like there's 3 scenarios here:
- Fake, marketing-based scarcity: in spite of seeming ever more "boy who cried wolf" to an ever-wiser market who has seen this tale over and over and over again, if the scarcity is fake, Apple will be able to mostly meet demand and the higher price may make up for the modestly lower volume of actually delivering units to consumers.
- Actual scarcity: if Apple can't deliver as many as they've modeled, they don't hit their sales forecasts, which heavily depend on iPhone units moving into consumer hands, especially in THIS (the new release) quarter (or two). Historically, when a line or two has slid (such as iPad numbers), growth of iPhone has made up for such shortcomings in the overall results. If iPhone supply is actually going to so thoroughly pinched this year, what line is going to make up for lower revenues from the iPhone line? Yes the price of X is higher but it's not that much higher.
- iPhone 8 saves the day by selling well enough to fill the gap until the X can overcome the reality of #2 or Apple marketing can no longer spin the trickery in #1. That of course, is up against (admittedly) rumors such as this which supports the general belief that many people ARE waiting for the X.
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