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iPhone X Supply Estimated to Remain Extremely Tight Until Next Year Due to Earlier Production Issues

HobeSoundDarryl said:
  • If people are "not buying the 8 because they are waiting on the X" and
  • if the X is going to be severely constrained through the end of the year and
  • if the vast majority of Apple's revenues comes from iPhone unit sales, then
...what level of revenue shortfall vs. stated expectations should be expected in the next earning report or two?

It seems like there's 3 scenarios here:
  1. Fake, marketing-based scarcity: in spite of seeming ever more "boy who cried wolf" to an ever-wiser market who has seen this tale over and over and over again, if the scarcity is fake, Apple will be able to mostly meet demand and the higher price may make up for the modestly lower volume of actually delivering units to consumers.
  2. Actual scarcity: if Apple can't deliver as many as they've modeled, they don't hit their sales forecasts, which heavily depend on iPhone units moving into consumer hands, especially in THIS (the new release) quarter (or two). Historically, when a line or two has slid (such as iPad numbers), growth of iPhone has made up for such shortcomings in the overall results. If iPhone supply is actually going to so thoroughly pinched this year, what line is going to make up for lower revenues from the iPhone line. Yes the price of X is higher but it's not that much higher.
  3. iPhone 8 saves the day by selling well enough to fill the gap until the X can overcome the reality of #2 or Apple marketing can no longer spin the trickery in #1. That of course, is up against (admittedly) rumors such as this which supports the general belief that many people ARE waiting for the X.
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The 8 is already being discounted. Figure even more discounts once the X arrives
 
So ths article says 10 million per month, so that would say there should be at least 10 million available by launch, but then the other article says only 2-3 million at launch.... Ummmm???
 
Aston441 said:
Agree 100%

I'm waiting a year or so to see how well Apple has tamed BurnIn on OLEDs.

I'm glad they're continuing to make a premium line with both TouchID and LCD, so if I need a new phone in the next year or two there is still a good replacement option.
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If the rumor is true about plus version then....I might wait on that.
[doublepost=1508860545][/doublepost]It would be apple's interest to make sure they get supplies intact, right? Otherwise some consumers might buy something else, right?
 
Supply will be tight, constrained, low, (insert adj here). How many articles of the same type? Must be a slow news day in anticipation of the 1000x new posts we'll get between Thursday-Monday of next week.
 
I dont know one person who has bought an 8 which I find suprising. Id like one but as a hardcore user since Classic days, 93' Apple is losing me.

Theres a greed going on now. Specifications that Android phones clearly trump, the charging add on, nice price bump of Apple care.

Maybe Apple should acknowledge Amazing will be first Trillion $ market cap because the wages in US are flat. People want to save money, or dont get played. Nike? Look at Jordan Brand? People want luxury items but spending on it?

The economy isn bad but isnt great. Either Apple is tone deaf or ignorant. On principle knowing they make almost a keystone margin on an electronic device is disgusting.

I love Apple but youre rubbing your consumers face in it.... I predicted X will also be flat just like 8. I was emphatically right about 8. Essentially just sub 2k$ to get the X in proper form with accessory bits to have the phone in its recommended state of design.

Come on Apple.
 
They've been using the same marketing techniques for years. And it still works. Little Bo Peep (Tim Cook) calls and the Sheeple follow.

I'm an Apple user, not a fanboy. I invest in Apple products every 2 or 3 years. I upgrade when the products no longer suit my needs. No need to rush out and replace something that works perfectly.
 
xalea said:
Maybe they will eventually realize you actually have to have a product to sell to continue making money.
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...or you can rush a product that's not ready like Google did with the Pixel 2 and Samsung did with the Note 7.
 
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