iPhone X Supply Revised Lower Yet Again as TrueDepth System Still Faces Production Issues

[Macalway]

We must all admit there's an avalanche of supply warnings.

Maybe we should listen?.....Na

My advice as always would be to wait. 1st gen devices are usually full of issues and this will be no different.

Of course, people want bragging rights so many will kill to get their hands on one

That's how you think? Bragging rights as prime motivation for things?

Status. I don't know, maybe in various segments of the population. Curious.

 

[VulchR]

I am happy to wait for the iPhone X if it turns our supplies are short. However, I am debating getting an iPhone 8 because the TouchID system seems fully debugged. I wonder if problems manufacturing the iPhone X will translate into problems with quality control. In this regard, Apple's products do not seem as bulletproof as they once used to. Still good, but not exceptionally reliable....

 

[sdwaltz]

God am I glad I just went with the 8 Plus.

 

[th-gates9345]

I just don't get why everyone is so quick to move away from fingerprint scanners. IT WORKS, and IT'S EASY.

Simple, because Apple wants it that way!

 

[democracyrules]

A new report today yet again suggests that customers looking to get an iPhone X this year might face quite the challenge.

Jeff Pu, an analyst with Taipei-based Yuanta Investment Consulting, has cut his forecast of the number of iPhone X devices that will be produced this year from 40 million units to 36 million. It's the second time he has revised down his estimate, which originally totaled 45 million earlier this year.

The underlying reason is that Apple's suppliers are still struggling to perfect manufacturing of the iPhone X's TrueDepth camera and 3D facial recognition system, according to Japan's Nikkei Asian Review. We first heard about the production issues from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo a few weeks ago.

Multiple reports have claimed it has taken more time to assemble the TrueDepth system's so-called "Romeo" module than the "Juliet" module.

The "Romeo" module reportedly includes the dot projector that beams more than 30,000 invisible dots to create a precise depth map of your face, while the "Juliet" module includes the infrared camera that analyzes the pattern. Together, they help power new iPhone X features such as Face ID and Animoji.

Pu maintained his belief that the iPhone X will enter mass production in mid-October and begin to be shipped from China to the first wave of launch countries next week. iPhone X pre-orders begin Friday, October 27, just over two weeks from now. The device officially launches Friday, November 3.

Article Link: iPhone X Supply Revised Lower Yet Again as TrueDepth System Still Faces Production Issues

We should wait and see during the preorder date on how the shipping date occurs.

Any news like this is like the 2016 US presidential election poll news that can be very wrong.

Just chill and not be influenced by any rumors.

 

[Macalway]

God am I glad I just went with the 8 Plus.

Yes you did good kid!

The 8 people love these threads

 

[ani4ani]

The most reliable source regaridng the supply chain in the industry (Kuo). And Macrumors is the same site you’re getting info about the phone’s scarcity.

err, I dont take anything from a rumor site as fact, and on this subject there are no facts since nothing needs to be delivered yet. As for Kuo, he has made numeorus predictions in the last few weeks about availability of the X, all different? I guess in theory they could all be / become fact I suppose. Given he said they had cracked FaceID more than a year ago [perhaps a fact] seems odd that still this far long they still are struggling to get supply and align components [perhaps another fact?] during assembly. You would have thought that problem would have shown up a long time ago and would have been resolved many months ago if they planned to build 45 million this year?

 

[MistrSynistr]

Apple is due for a complete flop and meltdown.

This lack of innovation/release 2 differently designed phones/can't make Touch ID work/no new features except Face ID thing is highly deserving.

Oh, and $300 for more it.

 

[NMBob]

This is what you get for skipping a number.

 

[sdwaltz]

Apple is due for a complete flop and meltdown.

This lack of innovation/release 2 differently designed phones/can't make Touch ID work/no new features except Face ID thing is highly deserving.

Oh, and $300 for more it.

Lack of innovation isn't really a problem here imo, but lack of production/supply chain control is really showing this year, even worse than last year.

Tim Cook is tarnishing his reputation for being a master of supply chain management.

 

[maverick2007]

Apple creating Fake demand! Its gonna backfire for sure!

 

[robjulo]

Fortunately, I don’t associate with anyone who’s self worth is tied to a consumer electronics device and uses it for “bragging rights”.

I know they are out there though, many post here.

My advice as always would be to wait. 1st gen devices are usually full of issues and this will be no different.

Of course, people want bragging rights so many will kill to get their hands on one

 

[deanthedev]

- The iPhone 5S was supposed to be delayed over issues with the fingerprint sensor.
- The 6 was supposed to be delayed due to production issues with the 5.5” display, and would launch much later than the 4.7” version.
- The 6S was supposed to be delayed because Pegatron and Foxconn couldn’t get production lines ready fast enough.
- The iPhone 7 was supposed to have supply issues resulting in shortages and lower than expected sales.

See any pattern here? There’s ALWAYS some doom & gloom issue related to delays.

These analysts are like the boy who cried wolf. They are constantly wrong yet people still keep believing what they say.

 

[BaltimoreMediaBlog]

I still believe that Apple had no intention of releasing the X this year. The 8 and 8 Plus were the 7S, and next years was the X debut.

You might be right on this. Apple is well known for giving out misinformation to its benefit. I still don't believe Apple has given up on Touch ID under the glass either. Accomplishing that would be something no other manufacturer has yet done. Face ID, while more complex in Apple's version, is not really new. It's been clunky in the past. I think Apple knows they have to get it right or it will hurt the other uses of the technology that they've already invested much in.

Also, I think this getting a new phone every year thing is getting old on people just like with PCs and Macs. People know the technology doesn't get twice as good every year like it did back in the day. I'm not going to say customers are super smart but they are definitely somewhat less dumb.

 

[CarlJ]

They're supposed to manufacture 36M phones in 22 days and they haven't even perfected the TD camera and 3D facial recognition? Seems "clear" to me there will be compromises in the first round of phones.

I seem to have missed the announcement where Apple stated that they'd have 36 million phones on launch day. Please provide a link to it. All I see here are guesses from unrelated consultants.

And you think they haven't started production yet, and are now going to build the phones all at once? They've likely been building/stockpiling them (or at least partially assembled units) for several months already. Simple back of the envelope calculations (quarterly sales divided by days in a quarter) suggest they can build "regular" iPhones at a rate approaching half a million a day (which is kind of mind boggling itself). You're suggesting their plan is to build the more complex phone at substantially more than double that rate? No, the phone's design has been finalized for quite some time, and it's been in production at some level, it's the rate at which they can build them that's the problem they're working on here.

You seem to be conflating design of the phone with design of the manufacturing process. They can produce exactly the same phone at increased volumes by improving the manufacturing processes.

It'll be an impressive phone, and buyers not lucky enough to get in ordered in the first minute or two will be waiting well into next year for it.

 

[zhandri]

Stop worrying everyone! There won't be any significant delays. @zhandri guarantees it.

36 million phones. That's not my definition of a delayed product

 

[filmantopia]

Given he said they had cracked FaceID more than a year ago [perhaps a fact] seems odd that still this far long they still are struggling to get supply and align components

The way this is apparently working is that Apple takes calculated risks, determining that the tech is on a trajectory such that they'll reasonably be able to produce X amount by Y time. If they want to be competitive and get ahead of the competition, they have to push themselves to do things that aren't going to be easy or totally certain. If there was chance Face ID would completely fail to be manufactured at all, surely they wouldn't have taken such a risk. But they likely figured that at worst they would be able to produce minimally acceptable amounts, even if in short supply, considering they're also releasing an iPhone 8 that takes the production burden off of the one device.
[doublepost=1507826861][/doublepost]

Apple is due for a complete flop and meltdown.

This lack of innovation/release 2 differently designed phones/can't make Touch ID work/no new features except Face ID thing is highly deserving.

Oh, and $300 for more it.

Been reading comments like this about Apple for 15 years. Why do people fantasize about Apple failing like this?

 

[CarlJ]

Shame in a way its the 10th anniversary of iPhone as Apple felt compelled to release a 'special device' to mark the event.

What evidence do you have that they "felt compelled"? I expect they've been working for a while towards having a premium-tier iPhone, where they could charge more, use more expensive components that they can't yet get in the huge quantities necessary for main-line iPhone production, and get additional mindshare from having a flagship phone.

They went with it at this point because they had the hardware/designs ready, not because it's the tenth anniversary.

 

[rek89]

How about including TouchID along with their beta, experimental, yet-to-be-reliably made facial recognition as the compromise? Time will tell on Nov 3 if Apple gets it right, but I'm guess there will be bad news.

I've been scrolling through these posts and am already tired of yours by page two. If you're going to comment and respond to people, at least read the article first. The facial recognition is reliably made, perfected, and whatever other words you have been throwing around. Romeo takes X amount of time to produce. Juliet takes Y amount of time to produce. When X and Y aren't the same number, as in this case, then you can't incorporate Romeo and Juliet into the same overall device at the same time and delays result while the number of Romeo catches up to the number of Juliet and overall devices. Doesn't mean they aren't of appropriate quality, simply means that they aren't both ready at the same time. For once, the guy takes longer to get ready than the girl!

To your comments about TouchID "just works" and whatever else - passwords "just worked" until TouchID came along, FaceID will "just work" until the next thing comes along - it's called innovation and it's what people want their technology companies to be doing. Remember something about a Henry Ford statement about a faster buggy (or horse)?

Also, where are the supposed compromises in the X?

 

[Macalway]

Yes folks Apple is finished, kaputski, done. I strongly suggest you look elsewhere

(I need to prepare for Oct 27 )

 

[macTW]

I mean. The supply didn’t get revised.

These guys are just making up numbers. Apple isn’t coming out and changing supply.

 

[sracer]

God am I glad I just went with the 8 Plus.

And if the X is NOT going to be in short supply you would be sad that you went with the 8 Plus?

 

[macTW]

Shame in a way its the 10th anniversary of iPhone as Apple felt compelled to release a 'special device' to mark the event.

It would have been better to delay X to launch when 'ready' sans notch etc.

Only if you don’t like the notch. Which is your opinion.

It’s better to release a fully functional, revolutionary device with a notch.

See? An opinion makes a statement wonderful.

 

[Gregg Thurman]

Estimates aren’t moving around, they’re moving consistently in one direction: down, down, down.

Yes, they are, but only because WS's original estimates were so unrealistic in the first place. If you apply Katy Huberty (Morgan Stanley) survey of likely iPhone purchasers model breakdown (iPhone X = 20%) to Pu's 36 Million estimate you get 180 Million iPhone Xs sold in the December quarter. I have raised my iPhones unit sales for the December quarter to 89 Million. Twenty % of that number is 17.8 Million units. Until WS's iPhone X unit estimates get down to 20 Million I think they are all full of it.

As a side note Huberty's model distribution shows that new model unit sales will drop from historic 70%/75% of total sales to 59%. This is consistent with the Decoy Pricing strategy taught is business schools https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112991-apple-decoy-pricing-iphone-x

Importantly, the shift to older, less expensive models (in this case the iPhone 7/iPhone 7 Plus) offsets the iPhone 8/iPhone 8 Plus/iPhone X price increases, leaving ASP virtually the same as FQ1/2017. Unit growth generates revenue growth.

 

[fourthtunz]

So aren't they supposed to be MAKING the iPhone X now, but instead are still perfecting manufacturing of the iPhone X's TrueDepth camera and 3D facial recognition system?

Does that mean the ones they made already (if they have) don't have good TrueDepth cameras?

heh, lets hope not.
It may just mean a problem getting the quality and quantity they want in time for the release?