iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High

[MacRumors]

Multiple analyst reports last week pointed towards Apple reducing its shipment forecast for the iPhone X in Q1 2018 from 50 million units down to 30 million units. Today, analyst Nicolas Baratte of investment banking company CLSA followed up those reports with a note that stated the iPhone X's shipment forecasts "remain inflated," and that any Q1 2018 volume estimate over 35 million units "will prove too high" (via CNBC).

In a research note sent out to its clients today, CLSA said that Apple's iPhone X shipment numbers are "unlikely to improve" upon the company's Q4 2017 sales. Similar to the reports shared last week, the reasoning behind the analyst's prediction is the belief that those who wanted an iPhone X immediately -- and were accepting of the high price tag -- have already received one. Average consumers looking at the iPhone X might not see the value in the $1,000 smartphone and opt to purchase another model in early 2018.

CLSA tracked iPhone X shipment volumes at 30 to 35 million in Q4 2017, and noted that it is "very skeptical that volumes will increase" in early 2018.

"We maintain that 2017 fourth-quarter iPhone X volumes were at 30 to 35 million and we are very skeptical that volumes will increase in the first quarter of 2018," CLSA analyst Nicolas Baratte wrote in an note Tuesday. "This does not reconcile with the expectation of pent-up demand or push-out to the first quarter of 2018 in our opinion: consumers who wanted to get an iPhone X in December 2017 already have it."

Although the 30 to 35 million range has become a popular estimate for iPhone X shipment forecasts in Q1 2018, other analysts have predicted higher volumes for the smartphone. Loop Capital increased iPhone X shipment numbers to between 40 and 45 million units in Q1 2018, while analysts at Jefferies forecast about 40 million iPhone X sales for the quarter.

CLSA also echoed previous rumors for the iPhone X in 2018, predicting a "lower priced X-gen option," meaning that the firm believes Apple will lower the price of the current iPhone X "if volume proves problematic." CLSA also expects to see an iPhone X Plus of some kind in 2018, which follows rumors that began last August and said that Apple could launch an iPhone with a 6.4-inch OLED display in 2018. Ming-Chi Kuo furthered those reports last November by laying out his own 2018 iPhone lineup prediction: 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch iPhones with OLED displays, and a 6.1-inch iPhone with an LCD display.

Article Link: iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High

 

[lars666]

Lowering Already-Lowered Shipping Estimate for iPhone X?

Courage. Not.

I am a huge iPhone and Apple fan, but I expect and really hope they finally get a warning for their more and more ridiculous price policy.

 

[Geert76]

Maybe...just maybe they priced the X to high? Just a wild guess

 

[Nr123*123]

Of course they’re over inflated.

Whilst the phone has many advancements, it just isn’t £1000 worth of phone. Face ID, whilst a technological marvel, isn’t worth that much to me.

I have a 6S plus, and it isn’t worth almost £750 to get maybe two extra features.

I can have an S8, which does almost 99% of what the iPhone X does for the average user for almost half the price.

And also the lengths Apple went to have portrait mode on the front and rear cameras, google did better with just the software alone, which maybe hints at the fact the energy and time wasted on this Face ID and sensor array is unnecessary.

 

[levitynyc]

Lower the price.

 

[djcerla]

those who wanted an iPhone X immediately -- and were accepting of the high price tag -- have already received one.

This line of thinking has always been proved wrong with iPhone sales.

Remember that Apple did guide for a monster quarter and did not warn otherwise.

 

[MH01]

This line of thinking has always been proved wrong with iPhone sales.

Remember that Apple did guide for a monster quarter and did not warn otherwise.

What other iPhone has dropped this drastically in sales post the initial rush? This is new....
[doublepost=1514909189][/doublepost]Good - I , and Many others want a cheaper iphone.

 

[djeeyore25]

This is beginning to look like the original iPhone release all over again. High initial demand, followed by a huge slowdown due to sticker shock. Apple ended up cutting the price, along with giving a $100 credit to early adapters. We'll see what they do, if anything, this time around.

 

[Aluminum213]

Pixel 2 has a better camera
Galaxy has a better screen

In 2017 there is competition

 

[Netminus]

I have no idea why any of you actually think this analyst's "prediction" is correct. 90% of the analysts that follow Apple are morons - Never in doubt but frequently wrong! I've been at this for over 25 years. There are a handful that get it right and the rest are stabbing in the dark causing havoc like this one. I've seen this a hundred times. Apple shifts production from one supplier to another and the analysts look no further than one side of the equation and generally the sales blow the roof off all their stupid predictions. Ignore the noise. P.S. Love the X. Best iPhone I've ever had.
P.S. Analysts are like the "photographers" that work in the camera store...

 

[TxExCxH]

During my holiday traveling I was in a couple different airports and I only saw one other person with an iPhone X. Overall I haven’t seen too many X’s in the wild.

 

[kafka27]

Put the ID-touch back and get rid of the notch.
Case closed.
//P.S.
lower the price as well with 2-300 dollars

 

[kingpushup]

AT&T is offering iPhone 8: buy one, get one free. Sounds like Samsung.

Apple typically rumors a high price but then, at Keynote, says prices are ‘lower than you expected!’

However this year, because Samsung took the bait from Apple rumors and priced its own phone at the 1,000 mark, Apple was committed to same (cannot price lower that Samsung.

Results:
1. Windfall from Apple loyalists during launch quarter.

2. Major discounts, some akin to Samsung (buy one, get one).

3. Uncertain resale values, looking ahead, because Apple has undercut its own price structure.

Typically the high-quality hardware leader in a space will restrict resellers from discounts beyond x percent. This year clearly Apple has softened. Resale market and Brand value: beware.

 

[aarontsuru]

During my holiday traveling I was in a couple different airports and I only saw one other person with an iPhone X. Overall I haven’t seen too many X’s in the wild.

I've seen quite a few here in NYC and personally know about 4-5 people who have one. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.

 

[cbaca51]

Oh well

I bought the 256GB X on day 1 and don’t regret it. Amazing phone.

It’s not for everyone and there are other iPhones priced lower for people who don’t wonna spend so much

 

[Sy7ygy]

P.S. Love the X. Best iPhone I've ever had.

Brain. Washed.

 

[cbaca51]

I’ve seen at least 10 X’s in the wild

 

[nviz22]

Lowering Already-Lowered Shipping Estimate for iPhone X?

Courage. Not.

I am a huge iPhone and Apple fan, but I expect and really hope they finally get a warning for their more and more ridiculous price policy.

People are really paying for the logo if anything. The only two things impressive about the X are the screen and processor. FaceID is more gimmicky because it isn’t worth spending $200-300 more for it.

 

[MacFather]

Deleted.

 

[KazKam]

I wonder if some folks like myself are contributing to this phenomenon...

Normally I upgrade my wife's and my iPhones every two years ...5s, 6s. This year was our year to upgrade. However, for the first time in quite a while I wasn't interested at all in either the newest (X) or the iterative (8) because of:

1) cost
2) useless/janky/missing features (IMO, not here to debate features)
3) highly questionable/vexing design compromises (IMO, not here to debate design choices)
4) and most importantly, our 6s' seem to be getting the job done just fine

 

[Swampthing]

What other iPhone has dropped this drastically in sales post the initial rush? This is new...

iPhone 8 demand dropped quite significantly after launch, and prior to the release of the iPhone X.

 

[DrewDaHilp1]

Have the X, got used to the new controls. Face ID wasn't necessary, and it fails way more than Touch ID ever did.

 

[JediZenMaster]

Brain. Washed.

Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?
[doublepost=1514910843][/doublepost]I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X or the next on me. There are many options for folks under 999 from Apple.

Not everything should be priced the same and if Samsung can charge 950 for a device that has a pen and the same type of camera that iPhone 7 Plus has than so can Apple.
[doublepost=1514911043][/doublepost]

People are really paying for the logo if anything. The only two things impressive about the X are the screen and processor. FaceID is more gimmicky because it isn’t worth spending $200-300 more for it.

You don’t speak for me or anyone else and it’s rude to think you do. I paid for the device because I liked the enhancements.

Even if someone paid for it just because of the “brand” what business is it of yours?

I find your post very ballsy for you to attempt to make judgements about someone’s purchase.

Worry about how you spend your own money.

 

[H3LL5P4WN]

Brain. Washed.

Hate. er.
[doublepost=1514911200][/doublepost]

Of course they’re over inflated.

Whilst the phone has many advancements, it just isn’t £1000 worth of phone. Face ID, whilst a technological marvel, isn’t worth that much to me.

I have a 6S plus, and it isn’t worth almost £750 to get maybe two extra features.

I can have an S8, which does almost 99% of what the iPhone X does for the average user for almost half the price.

And also the lengths Apple went to have portrait mode on the front and rear cameras, google did better with just the software alone, which maybe hints at the fact the energy and time wasted on this Face ID and sensor array is unnecessary.

Except that it's a robot phone. Worse, it's a Samsung robot phone.

 

[Xgm541]

Brain. Washed.

How is that brain washed? I too have the X and it is better than my 7+ i had last year, hence it's the best iphone i've ever had. Just because you dont want to pay $1000 for a phone doesn't mean that others enjoying their $1000 phone is an illegitimate experience.