iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High

Discussion in 'iOS Blog Discussion' started by MacRumors, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. MacRumors macrumors bot


    Apr 12, 2001

    Multiple analyst reports last week pointed towards Apple reducing its shipment forecast for the iPhone X in Q1 2018 from 50 million units down to 30 million units. Today, analyst Nicolas Baratte of investment banking company CLSA followed up those reports with a note that stated the iPhone X's shipment forecasts "remain inflated," and that any Q1 2018 volume estimate over 35 million units "will prove too high" (via CNBC).

    In a research note sent out to its clients today, CLSA said that Apple's iPhone X shipment numbers are "unlikely to improve" upon the company's Q4 2017 sales. Similar to the reports shared last week, the reasoning behind the analyst's prediction is the belief that those who wanted an iPhone X immediately -- and were accepting of the high price tag -- have already received one. Average consumers looking at the iPhone X might not see the value in the $1,000 smartphone and opt to purchase another model in early 2018.


    CLSA tracked iPhone X shipment volumes at 30 to 35 million in Q4 2017, and noted that it is "very skeptical that volumes will increase" in early 2018.
    Although the 30 to 35 million range has become a popular estimate for iPhone X shipment forecasts in Q1 2018, other analysts have predicted higher volumes for the smartphone. Loop Capital increased iPhone X shipment numbers to between 40 and 45 million units in Q1 2018, while analysts at Jefferies forecast about 40 million iPhone X sales for the quarter.

    CLSA also echoed previous rumors for the iPhone X in 2018, predicting a "lower priced X-gen option," meaning that the firm believes Apple will lower the price of the current iPhone X "if volume proves problematic." CLSA also expects to see an iPhone X Plus of some kind in 2018, which follows rumors that began last August and said that Apple could launch an iPhone with a 6.4-inch OLED display in 2018. Ming-Chi Kuo furthered those reports last November by laying out his own 2018 iPhone lineup prediction: 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch iPhones with OLED displays, and a 6.1-inch iPhone with an LCD display.

    Article Link: iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High
  2. lars666 macrumors 6502a

    Jul 13, 2008
    Lowering Already-Lowered Shipping Estimate for iPhone X?

    Courage. Not.

    I am a huge iPhone and Apple fan, but I expect and really hope they finally get a warning for their more and more ridiculous price policy.
  3. Geert76 macrumors 65816

    Feb 28, 2014
    the Netherlands
    Maybe...just maybe they priced the X to high? Just a wild guess
  4. Nr123*123 macrumors 6502

    Jul 1, 2014
    Of course they’re over inflated.

    Whilst the phone has many advancements, it just isn’t £1000 worth of phone. Face ID, whilst a technological marvel, isn’t worth that much to me.

    I have a 6S plus, and it isn’t worth almost £750 to get maybe two extra features.

    I can have an S8, which does almost 99% of what the iPhone X does for the average user for almost half the price.

    And also the lengths Apple went to have portrait mode on the front and rear cameras, google did better with just the software alone, which maybe hints at the fact the energy and time wasted on this Face ID and sensor array is unnecessary.
  5. djcerla macrumors 68000


    Apr 23, 2015
    This line of thinking has always been proved wrong with iPhone sales.

    Remember that Apple did guide for a monster quarter and did not warn otherwise.
  6. MH01 Suspended


    Feb 11, 2008
    What other iPhone has dropped this drastically in sales post the initial rush? This is new....
    --- Post Merged, Jan 2, 2018 ---
    Good - I , and Many others want a cheaper iphone.
  7. djeeyore25 macrumors 6502


    Dec 23, 2014
    New York City
    This is beginning to look like the original iPhone release all over again. High initial demand, followed by a huge slowdown due to sticker shock. Apple ended up cutting the price, along with giving a $100 credit to early adapters. We'll see what they do, if anything, this time around.
  8. Aluminum213 macrumors 68040


    Mar 16, 2012
    Pixel 2 has a better camera
    Galaxy has a better screen

    In 2017 there is competition
  9. Netminus macrumors newbie


    Jan 2, 2018
    I have no idea why any of you actually think this analyst's "prediction" is correct. 90% of the analysts that follow Apple are morons - Never in doubt but frequently wrong! I've been at this for over 25 years. There are a handful that get it right and the rest are stabbing in the dark causing havoc like this one. I've seen this a hundred times. Apple shifts production from one supplier to another and the analysts look no further than one side of the equation and generally the sales blow the roof off all their stupid predictions. Ignore the noise. P.S. Love the X. Best iPhone I've ever had.
    P.S. Analysts are like the "photographers" that work in the camera store...
  10. TxExCxH macrumors regular


    May 16, 2014
    During my holiday traveling I was in a couple different airports and I only saw one other person with an iPhone X. Overall I haven’t seen too many X’s in the wild.
  11. kafka27 macrumors newbie


    Nov 17, 2017
    Put the ID-touch back and get rid of the notch.
    Case closed.
    lower the price as well with 2-300 dollars
  12. kingpushup macrumors regular

    Jun 24, 2013
    AT&T is offering iPhone 8: buy one, get one free. Sounds like Samsung.

    Apple typically rumors a high price but then, at Keynote, says prices are ‘lower than you expected!’

    However this year, because Samsung took the bait from Apple rumors and priced its own phone at the 1,000 mark, Apple was committed to same (cannot price lower that Samsung.

    1. Windfall from Apple loyalists during launch quarter.

    2. Major discounts, some akin to Samsung (buy one, get one).

    3. Uncertain resale values, looking ahead, because Apple has undercut its own price structure.

    Typically the high-quality hardware leader in a space will restrict resellers from discounts beyond x percent. This year clearly Apple has softened. Resale market and Brand value: beware.
  13. aarontsuru macrumors regular


    Jul 21, 2014
    Brooklyn, NY
    I've seen quite a few here in NYC and personally know about 4-5 people who have one. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.
  14. cbaca51 macrumors regular

    Sep 11, 2016
    Oh well

    I bought the 256GB X on day 1 and don’t regret it. Amazing phone.

    It’s not for everyone and there are other iPhones priced lower for people who don’t wonna spend so much
  15. Sy7ygy Suspended

    Nov 16, 2012
    Brain. Washed.
  16. cbaca51 macrumors regular

    Sep 11, 2016
  17. nviz22 macrumors 601


    Jun 24, 2013
    People are really paying for the logo if anything. The only two things impressive about the X are the screen and processor. FaceID is more gimmicky because it isn’t worth spending $200-300 more for it.
  18. MacFather macrumors 6502a


    Mar 16, 2012
    Best iPhone under Steve Jobs started at $599. Now, under Tim Cook it is $999. A 67% price increase!!!
  19. KazKam macrumors 6502


    Oct 25, 2011
    I wonder if some folks like myself are contributing to this phenomenon...

    Normally I upgrade my wife's and my iPhones every two years ...5s, 6s. This year was our year to upgrade. However, for the first time in quite a while I wasn't interested at all in either the newest (X) or the iterative (8) because of:

    1) cost
    2) useless/janky/missing features (IMO, not here to debate features)
    3) highly questionable/vexing design compromises (IMO, not here to debate design choices)
    4) and most importantly, our 6s' seem to be getting the job done just fine
  20. Swampthing macrumors 6502a


    Mar 5, 2004
    iPhone 8 demand dropped quite significantly after launch, and prior to the release of the iPhone X.
  21. DrewDaHilp1 macrumors 6502a


    Mar 29, 2009
    All Your Memes Are Belong to US
    Have the X, got used to the new controls. Face ID wasn't necessary, and it fails way more than Touch ID ever did.
  22. JediZenMaster, Jan 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2018

    JediZenMaster Suspended


    Mar 28, 2010
    Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?
    --- Post Merged, Jan 2, 2018 ---
    I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X or the next on me. There are many options for folks under 999 from Apple.

    Not everything should be priced the same and if Samsung can charge 950 for a device that has a pen and the same type of camera that iPhone 7 Plus has than so can Apple.
    --- Post Merged, Jan 2, 2018 ---
    You don’t speak for me or anyone else and it’s rude to think you do. I paid for the device because I liked the enhancements.

    Even if someone paid for it just because of the “brand” what business is it of yours?

    I find your post very ballsy for you to attempt to make judgements about someone’s purchase.

    Worry about how you spend your own money.
  23. H3LL5P4WN macrumors 65816


    Jun 19, 2010
    Pittsburgh PA
    Hate. er.
    --- Post Merged, Jan 2, 2018 ---
    Except that it's a robot phone. Worse, it's a Samsung robot phone.
  24. Xgm541 macrumors 65816

    May 3, 2011
    How is that brain washed? I too have the X and it is better than my 7+ i had last year, hence it's the best iphone i've ever had. Just because you dont want to pay $1000 for a phone doesn't mean that others enjoying their $1000 phone is an illegitimate experience.

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