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iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High
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I work for one of the big 2 US cell carriers and I will say this. The iPhone 8 and 8+ have cannibalized many iPhone X sales because they came out around the same time so they are all “new”. People say “well and it still has the home button and isn’t $1,000”. People don’t really care about the screen technology or the Face ID. It’s price and “well the 8 is still better than my 6/7”. Between the high price and releasing with the 8/8+ it seems they are cannibalizing iPhone X sales.
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Maybe on sale, but retail the 64GB iPhone X is $999 and retail for the 64GB S8 is ~$750 depending on carrier, so unless it’s on sale, he’s exaggerating some.
MR please, please, please, be consistent about whether you are talking about fiscal or calendar years.
FY 2018 began October 1.
CY 2018 began yesterday.
See the difference? Get the importance?
FY 2018 began October 1.
CY 2018 began yesterday.
See the difference? Get the importance?
Competition, price, and lack of attention to their echosystem. Apple is loosing it badly to others in key aspects of their echosystem. One example, Amazon Prime Photos compared to Apple Photos. Amazon Prime Photos Cloud Unlimited and free. Their app works well with Apple devices and across multiple Apple ID’s, more like DropBox. Apple ID in Apple Photo a complete mess for sharing photos. They have a nice interface and the free editing software that far exceeds Apple’s offering in Apple Photos. This from a company that sells bathroom tissue. Apple needs to understand, almost anyone can make todays products and price it competitively, or free. No longer does Apple and for that matter any hardware software company, have exclusivity in developing and or improving unique products. What will eventually make companies like Apple fail, loosing their ability to justify their price delta.
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More FUD before holiday quarter earnings release. Happens every single year. But good for page views I guess.
No thanks
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Best Ford under Henry Ford $360
Best Ford under William Ford Jr. $453,750
126,041% price increase!!!!
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“Average consumers looking at the iPhone X might not see the value in the $1,000 smartphone and opt to purchase another model in early 2018.”
Fair enough, paying a $1,000 for a phone that is going to go out of hype once the new ones come out later this year is nuts, imo. As many here have mentioned, at the end of the day it does the same things as all other iPhones + animogies.
Fair enough, paying a $1,000 for a phone that is going to go out of hype once the new ones come out later this year is nuts, imo. As many here have mentioned, at the end of the day it does the same things as all other iPhones + animogies.
That attitude is typical of Android fans. iPhone fans are all sheep, but let me gush about my Galaxy S8 (or whatever Android device they use). Nothing new here.
Just remember where these stories are coming from. Financial analysts who have an agenda other than reporting the truth. They work for their clients ... and not the one's that the original post indicated the research note was sent out to. Their real clients are the big money fund managers that need the stock price driven in one direction or another.
The analysts can say pretty much anything they want because ...
a. they are not held accountable to incorrect "research" or inaccurate "predictions".
b. no one remembers anyway.
c. Apple hardly ever comments to refute these "reports" directly.
d. after the quarter closes, Apple is forbidden to release material information until the financial report comes out.
So these guys have a good 3 weeks to come out and drive the price down. They just want to get in at a lower price before Apple reveals earnings and then they sell. It's the opposite of the pump and dump.
Anyways, believe whatever you want. Apple won't tell you how many iPhoneX were sold anyway. They'll give a number for total iPhones sold and the total revenue. From there, you can do some math estimate the mix for the quarter.
If the ASP is in the $725 range,that would indicate to me that the mix would be about 50/50 for the 8/8+ vs. X, but then that's even a wild guess. I'll have to put together a spreadsheet to analyze. see below
The higher the ASP, the more X's sold.
EDIT - I just did a quick spreadsheet using data showing iPhone product mix from CIRP https://www.ped30.com/2017/12/27/apple-cirp-iphone-x/
CIRP is indcating a 29:38 ratio of X vs. 8/8+, plus a bunch of other models in there too.
Assuming a 70/30 mix of LowRAM/HighRAM within a model, I get an ASP of $786. I'm using US prices and I lumped in all 6S/6S plus at $449.
Now I'm really interested in what they report the ASP at.
The analysts can say pretty much anything they want because ...
a. they are not held accountable to incorrect "research" or inaccurate "predictions".
b. no one remembers anyway.
c. Apple hardly ever comments to refute these "reports" directly.
d. after the quarter closes, Apple is forbidden to release material information until the financial report comes out.
So these guys have a good 3 weeks to come out and drive the price down. They just want to get in at a lower price before Apple reveals earnings and then they sell. It's the opposite of the pump and dump.
Anyways, believe whatever you want. Apple won't tell you how many iPhoneX were sold anyway. They'll give a number for total iPhones sold and the total revenue. From there, you can do some math estimate the mix for the quarter.
If the ASP is in the $725 range,
The higher the ASP, the more X's sold.
EDIT - I just did a quick spreadsheet using data showing iPhone product mix from CIRP https://www.ped30.com/2017/12/27/apple-cirp-iphone-x/
CIRP is indcating a 29:38 ratio of X vs. 8/8+, plus a bunch of other models in there too.
Assuming a 70/30 mix of LowRAM/HighRAM within a model, I get an ASP of $786. I'm using US prices and I lumped in all 6S/6S plus at $449.
Now I'm really interested in what they report the ASP at.
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So someone with an opinion of the phone that differs from you is somehow brainwashed? The X isn't for everyone, but having owned a lot of iPhones I am enjoying mine quite a bit. To each is own...
According to analysts, who frequently get this sort of stuff wrong. No official word from Apple.
Just a wild guess: analysts would never say this sort of thing to manipulate stock prices. Or spread FUD. We didn't see these sorts of articles with the first iPhone, or the 3G, or the 3GS, or the 4, or the...
Wait, we did. Every single year.
All I'm saying is: if history is anything to go by, it might be best for the official numbers to be released before people gloat.
I like everything about the iPhone X except for the notch which often cuts into video. There is sometimes an option to take the video out of full screen but on some wide angle content on Amazon Prime for example you are forced to view movies with the notch. It's a dramatically compromised experience under these specific circumstances.
Otherwise, I like my iPhone X but I feel like the notch came about as a result of groupthink and it's no surprise demand is softer after the early adopters.
Otherwise, I like my iPhone X but I feel like the notch came about as a result of groupthink and it's no surprise demand is softer after the early adopters.
#4 Could not agree more. I'm (finally) off the upgrade because something new is out train. And with 'battery-gate' I'm going to spend $29 to get hopefully get another 2 years out my 6s.
I'm not sure why so many invest their beliefs into analysts. Perhaps they just read the negative headline about iPhone X sales and formulate their own theory based off that versus actually taking the time to realize official numbers from Apple are more meaningful than some false trajectory mudslinging from analysts.
This article is misleading readers because the way it is worded leads people to believe that Apple lowered its estimates of sales when it is really quoting the guess of the same analyst now speculating that his earlier SWAG may be off. I guess it provides fodder for Apple haters to crow that the guesstimate shows that the new phone "only" 35 million people have bought one in the first couple of months. LOL. You can't make this stuff up.
People are getting so salty defending the latest overpriced toy from Apple. Has Apple finally pushed it too far? Remember, this is the "phone of the future" that doesn't even have a gigabit LTE chip in it and so is absolutely destroyed by all devices that do on any network. Before you show your ignorance, read up on Gigabit LTE, realize it is network agnostic and doesn't require infrastructure upgrades to benefit the end user, and then realize how much Apple has f****ed its customers by robbing them of the latest cell technology while charging an absurd premium.
It just baffles me how many people love their iPhone X so much that they don’t want Apple to lower the price. Why?? Apple won’t go broke if they lowered the X by $200 or even at 50% discount.
https://www.shop.bt.com/products/samsung-galaxy-s8-midnight-black-sm-g950fzkabtu-CTLR.html
Can be had slightly cheaper from other retailers also. Or for around £500 on Amazon.de if you’re happy with the EU version
Seems like Apple set the price based on an expected demand, and it just wasn’t what materialized. I think co-announcing with the 8 but not having the same availability date was another hurdle. The price is too high for me, but many high-end phones are nearing $1000, so it’s not what I would have called ridiculous pricing. They can always adjust that based on demand.
Just using the inflation rate from 2007 to 2017, $599 is $705 in today’s dollars. So the real question is, are there ~$294 of improvements in the iPhone X since the launch of the original iPhone?
Well, I don't really care about price as much as I care about design, time savings, ease of use, functionality and interoperability with my eco system. I run my heat, lights, sound, door locks all from my iPhone. I can upgrade easily and quickly. For the most part I don't worry about mal ware. All this time saved is money in my pocket. So, if the hardware is a little more expensive, doesn't matter I'm way ahead in the end. I was very skeptical of Face ID. Like many things I have been skeptical about with Apple...they have all turned out to be pretty fantastic.(Hard to believe but, Apple actually knows what they are doing. Name a single company that is better... Certainly not those lying, cheating, copying, Samsung pricks). And so is this "gimmick". It's WAY more secure than a finger print, is super fast and just plain convenient. I hardly notice it. It unlocks my phone seamlessly and in the dark... I love the phone size (always thought my plus was just a bit too big) and now I get pretty much same screen area with a smaller hardware footprint. And hey what else am I going to spend my discretionary income on? What else could I possible buy that I use as much and as often as my phone? It saves me days per month... Hell the damn thing is cheap by any of my metrics...
No, it can't be justified. Meanwhile people who actually crave productivity (innovative options) benefit from the multitasking powerhouse called the Note 8. See attached.
Attachments
Not surprising. I love the display but wish they could integrate Touch ID into the display. Face ID is terrible. If it doesn’t recognize me, I have to put it down and pick it back up, or press the side button to sleep and wake it back up.
It was nice to be riding a bike or something and be able to unlock my phone to send a message with out even looking at the screen. Gotta LOOK at the screen to unlock! Who even uses the Animoji feature? I used it when I first got the phone, but no longer... more of a gimmick!
It was nice to be riding a bike or something and be able to unlock my phone to send a message with out even looking at the screen. Gotta LOOK at the screen to unlock! Who even uses the Animoji feature? I used it when I first got the phone, but no longer... more of a gimmick!