Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

iTunes Countdown to 100 Million

So I've begun running numbers and here's what I've got so far.

The approximate sales for Year 2 of the iTunes Music Store will be 210 million songs.

That represents 200% growth, or stated differently --> By the end of Year 2, the total number of songs sold will be 4x what it was at the end of Year 1.

The 200 millionth song will be sold in Week 88, roughly a half year from now.

The 300 millionth song will be sold in Week 107, just after the second birthday.

Look for a promotion to get the total to 300 million before the end of Year 2.

The above is all educated speculation and extrapolation provided by me.

Thank you to the forum members who provided the source data; it was tremendously helpful.

Oh, in Year 3, the total songs sold will be 380 million; bringing the total to 660 million.

The billionth song will be sold in Week 191.

Mark
 
Billion

rogo said:
The billionth song will be sold in Week 191.

Mark
Click to expand...

So what will Apple give away for the Billionth song sold?
I'm hoping for a G6 Supercomputer Cluster. :D
 
rDLr said:
So what will Apple give away for the Billionth song sold?
I'm hoping for a G6 Supercomputer Cluster. :D
Click to expand...

How about a G6 and a chance to meet Steve Jobs for a private luncheon.
 
rogo said:
The billionth song will be sold in Week 191.

Mark
Click to expand...

Now this is just a very rough glance through my calendar...but wouldn't that mean the billionth song is sold on New Year's Day, 2007?

Coincidental??? Well, you know what I think. :)
 
Just had an idea..

with all the rumours of the new iPod configs/case design (20/40/60gig + all alumiNIUm enclosure + funky button)... whats the chances of Apple releasing them the second they reach 100,000,000?

just a thought.
 
You asked for it: almost live interpolated updates.

nagromme said:
It would be fun if Apple or someone made a CONSTANTLY animated Java or Flash counter.

The "hard data" may only update every 5 minutes, but the counter would extrapolate, cycling the digits based on the very latest buying rate. (5+ songs a second is the average!)

The extrapolation could aim maybe 2% low--so when the next "real data" hit, the counter would jump up just slightly at that instant. You might never notice. (And if the real data were ever lower than the animation, the counter would simply have to freeze for a few seconds until the latest extrapolation "catches up.")

People have fun with the iTunes counter, aside from the contest. I bet Apple will keep the counter after the promo--only smaller, on the main iTunes page. Constantly cycling digits would be great marketing when people visit iTunes.com to see what the big deal is.
Click to expand...

Even if I was thinking of doing it before, after reading your post I decided to implement this feature in my iTMS psychedelic counter. I found that an extrapolation based on the last count was often missing the next target by a good amount (at least while I tried it).

So I decided to offset the counter by 5 minutes so it never misses it's target since it interpolates past data.

After the first five minutes the new counter will start to increment towards the updated count and will reach its goal exactly in 5 minutes, enabling a seamless transition to the updated count. The process is then repeated with the newer update.

This means that after 5 minutes the counter will update in an almost "live" mode, usually changing the count several times a second.

There is now a countdown in minutes:seconds in the upper left corner to see when the new "real" sample will be taken. I also made the rotation effect slower and smoother.

Anyway have fun, it's right there in this link, in Shockwave: The Almost Live iTMS Psychedelic Counter
 
djdarlek said:
...with all the rumours of the new iPod configs/case design... whats the chances of Apple releasing them the second they reach 100,000,000?
Click to expand...

Very small I'd say, given that Apple just started an iPod+Powerbook promotion http://www.apple.com/education/cramandjam/ . At least not before september, the end of the promotion (and the month of the new iMac and maybe more).

Mr. E.
 
Apple showing 97 million + exactly on their website. I'm quite certain it was around 98 mil just awhile ago....?!? :confused:
 
Why do people think that when the contest is over they will introduce new ipods. It ain't gonna happen! They would sum up a huge media event to introduce the next gen ipod. The Cram and Jam expires September 24th, you won't see them until after the 24th. The same thing that happened with the new displays.
 
Whyren said:
Very nice indeed. It was especially interesting when the Apple's counter went down a few minutes ago. The Psychedelic Counter refreshed, and suddenly began dropping hundreds a second :)
Click to expand...

Lol, I was wondering how the counter would react to something like this happening, now I know :)

nagromme said:
Cool :) I can see that animating immediately would be tough unless you had your own history data tracked on your own server.
Click to expand...

Exactly and I don't feel like doing that :)

But I just thought, maybe I could do a fake count at a random rate up to the first count sample while the first 5 minutes are passing. That would have the adverse effect of giving a fake experience to those not patient enough to wait.

Or I could take into account that the next update after the counter is loaded will likely be before the next 5 minutes. Maybe it could query the server at every 10-20 seconds or so until it detects a change, reducing the first waiting time to a 2 1/2 minutes average. It would do that up to the first 5 minutes only, after that it would revert to a 5 min. query interval, but still showing the new interpolated pseudo-live count.

The Almost Live iTMS Psychedelic Counter
 
I hope that Apple release the name of the 100 millionth song, or maybe makes a playlist of all the winning tunes.... just to please my curiosity... hehe.
 
zim said:
I hope that Apple release the name of the 100 millionth song, or maybe makes a playlist of all the winning tunes.... just to please my curiosity... hehe.
Click to expand...

Well, one of the things the winner gets to do is release his/her own special playlist--one would hope he/she would include that 100 millionth song.

It's probably going to be something truly awful and lame. The Disney Children's version of "Swanee River" :eek:
 
According to the Psych counter, the 100mil mark has already been reached, but Apple's site says 99,282,342 as of 6:20 PM Pacific.

[edit]Well I guess the Psych counter glitched...it's back to under 100mil.[/edit]
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back