The analogy would be apt if Apple, Google, and Microsoft are to sit on their lead in mobile and not constantly iterate in the coming years (such as Microsoft did with Windows). Then I could see HP catching up. Maybe..
But the way Android and iOS march on and how HP's reach does not seem to have added much to the progress of WebOS, I won't bet on them.
Good.
I don't see consumers getting sick and tired of Android, iOS, and WP7 like they did with Windoze.