KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

[MacRumors]

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released shipments forecasts for the iPhone, iPad, Mac and Apple Watch for upcoming fiscal quarters. Kuo estimates between 70-75 million iPhone and 3.5-4 million Apple Watch shipments during Q1 2016 of the fiscal year, which encompasses the busy holiday shopping season in the U.S., Australia, Canada, Europe and many other regions.

In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors, Kuo believes that iPhone sales momentum could gradually decline in the new year, possibly enough for the device to experience its first year-over-year shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.

We estimate iPhone shipments rose 2.1% QoQ and 23.6% YoY to 48.5mn units in 3Q15, of which 20-22mn units were iPhone 6s. We attribute the solid YoY growth to the inclusion of China as the first-launch market for iPhone 6s and to increased output of the new model (versus 14-15mn units of iPhone 6 in 3Q14).

However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipments momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16F on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.

Kuo also forecasts between 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016, which lines up with Q4 2015 of the calendar year, a three-month period ending December 31.

The analyst expects iPad Pro shipments to be around 2 million in fiscal Q1 2016, and believes the tablet's higher selling price will help offset an annual decline in iPad shipments, which could fall 16% to 40-42 million units in 2016.

We now expect shipments of iPad Pro to be around 2mn units in 4Q15, versus our previous forecast of 4-5mn units given quality issues with Sharp's panel supply. However, thanks to a higher shipments weighting of iPad Pro, coupled with a lower mix of iPad mini, we anticipate the ASP of end-products and some components will trend up in 2016F (e.g. we estimate the ASP of backlight unit to rise 30-35% in 2016). This should be enough to offset total iPad shipments decline, which we estimate will fall 16% to 40-42mn units in 2016F.

Kuo expects that, amid lackluster sales for PCs, Mac sales will continue to be better than those of competitors. The well-informed analyst says the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro is Apple's most popular notebook, followed by the 12-inch MacBook, and expects the new iMacs with 4K and 5K Retina displays to account for at least 50-60% of total iMac shipments in Q1 2016 of the fiscal year.

Article Link: KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

 

[Aluminum213]

None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks

 

[OllyW]

None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks

Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.

 

[Markoth]

Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.

Pretty safe prediction for those analysts then!

 

[v0lume4]

Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.

 

[keysofanxiety]

Why don't the analysts predict something that can't be wrong: that no matter what sales numbers Apple announce, the stock will still drop for whatever reason

 

[HowEver]

I believe that is called a "press release," not a "research note."

In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors...

 

[Aluminum213]

Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.

Which is my point, they have nothing solid to base the numbers on

But it's just a need to have a number that's more important then the accuracy of it

 

[Thunderhawks]

Hey, looks like there is hope for MR.

Everything is clear....

Just like v0lume4 I am wondering what happens to smartphone sales when everybody on the planet (even including family hand me downs) and even the last pygmy has a smartphone/iPhone?

 

[GLS]

Apple. Doomed. Etc.

 

[2457282]

I wonder if Apple will ever be transparent about the watch sales. Regardless, I think it is safe to say that they are selling in the millions and is by far the best selling smartwatch. I could see (although I am not convinced) that the 6s numbers YoY will not be as hot, given that there is nothing huge in it (I love mine, but really if you have a 6 you are just as good). Let's see if the 7 comes out with something more significant. I would love to see them finally retire the home button so the screen size can increase without the phone size increasing. I also hope they spend a bajillion dollars on upgrading their services and integration points because that by far is the week link (even though in many ways they are still ahead of most others).

 

[Lesser Evets]

Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

 

[OllyW]

Pretty safe prediction for those analysts then!

At least they are making an effort, unlike some people.

"We shipped a lot the first quarter, then last quarter we shipped even more. And I can predict this quarter we will ship even more."

 

[JXShine]

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet

 

[PBRsg]

Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.

Apple bases its global prices on the USD prices and most currencies have lost against the USD in the last couple of years. This is what is going to slow sales for Apple's already expensive devices. Apple need to reduce prices as their big margins allows them to do that comfortably.

 

[AustinIllini]

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

Kindergarten economics right here.

 

[spiderman0616]

Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet

Yeah--I don't know why people have such short memories about this. Well before one person even owned an Apple Watch, we knew they would not be sharing sales figures. And that's because everything Apple makes will now be compared to iPhone sales--Apple knows anything less than that would be considered a failure so they just choose not to play that game with the media. Unfortunately, MacRumors forum members still make it into something it's not.

 

[TallManNY]

Apple bases its global prices on the USD prices and most currencies have lost against the USD in the last couple of years. This is what is going to slow sales for Apple's already expensive devices. Apple need to reduce prices as their big margins allows them to do that comfortably.

Nope, they need to protect their margins so they remain a really really profitable company. Apple will loose some sales due to high prices, but not as many as folks think. How many people are choosing a $200 Android phone over an iPhone because the iPhone $750 or $650? You either want iOS or you don't is really the question. Apple keeping the price $50 cheaper because of currency fluctuations isn't going to make a big difference in numbers sold. But that $50 times every phone sold overseas is going to make a huge difference to the bottom line.

 

[Tycho24]

Hey, looks like there is hope for MR.

Everything is clear....

Just like v0lume4 I am wondering what happens to smartphone sales when everybody on the planet (even including family hand me downs) and even the last pygmy has a smartphone/iPhone?

Same thing that happened in the late 90's when every last person had a pc... The sales come as people upgrade. It's obviously already happening a lot now. That's just how saturation works. Sales are NOT currently being hugely driven by a large percentage of customers being introduced to a smartphone for the first time...
You may be confusing 2016 with 2011?
*confused*

 

[macduke]

Analysts say this leading up to nearly every holiday quarter. Why? Because they want the stock to drop. Then they buy up a bunch of it after Apple announces another record holiday quarter.

 

[Benjamin Frost]

70-75 million iPhones is a worrying estimate.

Last year was 73 million, as I recall, so this would be around 0% growth. That's going to do nothing for the share price. In addition, growth last year was about 40%. A collapse from 40% growth to 0% growth is not what Tim Cook wants.

I'm not surprised; the 6s seems to be a modest upgrade. However, I look forward to the iPhone 7, particularly if Apple bring out a smaller model.

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

Agreed.

I truly hope that everyone who has bought an Apple Watch is enjoying using it, but there is no doubt in my mind that it has flopped. If sales were stellar, Tim Cook would surely have boasted of them by now. It's that simple. Business is business.

 

[Merkie]

70-75 million iPhones is a worrying estimate.

Last year was 73 million, as I recall, so this would be around 0% growth. That's going to do nothing for the share price. In addition, growth last year was about 40%. A collapse from 40% growth to 0% growth is not what Tim Cook wants.

I'm not surprised; the 6s seems to be a modest upgrade. However, I look forward to the iPhone 7, particularly if Apple bring out a smaller model.

How big is the high-end premium smartphone market anyway? Perhaps saturation is near.

 

[JeffyTheQuik]

As a happy shareholder, thank you to the customers that buy the Apple products.

 

[JustMartin]

Yeah--I don't know why people have such short memories about this. Well before one person even owned an Apple Watch, we knew they would not be sharing sales figures. And that's because everything Apple makes will now be compared to iPhone sales--Apple knows anything less than that would be considered a failure so they just choose not to play that game with the media. Unfortunately, MacRumors forum members still make it into something it's not.

You're right. There is no number that will please analysts, the media or (especially) MR readers. I can see it now "Only sold 100 million watches? That means not everyone has one - massive fail."

Trouble is - nothing's allowed to grow quietly these days. If it's not a massive success from the get-go, it's deemed to be a failure.

 

[twilexia]

None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks

I distrust analysts as much as anyone but Ming-Chi Kuo has shown to be almost frighteningly accurate in many of his predictions (for example his prediction for the iMac refresh this year - while not 100%, it was very close).