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KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

Benjamin Frost said:
I'm not surprised; the 6s seems to be a modest upgrade. However, I look forward to the iPhone 7, particularly if Apple bring out a smaller model.
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Even if the 7 is the world's greatest yet, there will still be an ocean of 5S, 6, and 6S out there that were not there in previous years. Unless they invoke a huge buy back program (complete fantasy), many secondary buyers will happily buy/be handed down the older, just as capable, phones and the 7 will STILL be pinched. Unless Apple and others can open significantly new markets, the days of wine and roses can be coming to an end for anybody's hardware. Their future (in consumer telephonics) probably lies in leveraging their ecosystem more than new phone sku's. IMHO, of course.
 
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v0lume4 said:
Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.
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Exactly. It doesn't matter they won't grow forever. Next year they could drop, then they could be down further the year after, then back up...

As long as Apple are making plenty of profit, with a decent marketshare, etc (which they undoubtably are) we shouldn't care what shareholders think :)
 
Benjamin Frost said:
I truly hope that everyone who has bought an Apple Watch is enjoying using it, but there is no doubt in my mind that it has flopped. If sales were stellar, Tim Cook would surely have boasted of them by now. It's that simple. Business is business.
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He just did boast about it. He recently said they sold a lot at launch quarter, more in the following quarter and he predicted they would sell even more in the following quarter. That sounds like boasting to me.

I also see many stores that are starting to carry the watch. Do you think they are just doing that for fun? Those stores probably get confidential information about sales and they probably hear about demand from their customers. So I think the watch is selling "fine". I'm not sure what "fine" is in numbers. But it doesn't seem like a flop.
 
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Aluminum213 said:
None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks
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I have little respect for Kuo's estimates. His track record isn't near as good as bloggers claim, e.g., September quarter (FQ3/2015) iPhone 6S sales are given as 20 - 22 Million units even though Apple announced 13 Million first weekend sales. What's important about that is only 2 days of the first weekend were in FQ3. At most only 10 Million iPhone 6Ss were sold during the September quarter.

Kuo is given way to much credit for his "accuracy".
 
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TallManNY said:
Nope, they need to protect their margins so they remain a really really profitable company. Apple will loose some sales due to high prices, but not as many as folks think. How many people are choosing a $200 Android phone over an iPhone because the iPhone $750 or $650? You either want iOS or you don't is really the question. Apple keeping the price $50 cheaper because of currency fluctuations isn't going to make a big difference in numbers sold. But that $50 times every phone sold overseas is going to make a huge difference to the bottom line.
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They may have to if they want to make any kind of dent in emerging markets like South America and India.

Unlike China, there isn't a huge middle class that can afford $650 iPhones.
 
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DynaFXD said:
Even if the 7 is the world's greatest yet, there will still be an ocean of 5S, 6, and 6S out there that were not there in previous years. Unless they invoke a huge buy back program (complete fantasy), many secondary buyers will happily buy/be handed down the older, just as capable, phones and the 7 will STILL be pinched. Unless Apple and others can open significantly new markets, the days of wine and roses can be coming to an end for anybody's hardware. Their future (in consumer telephonics) probably lies in leveraging their ecosystem more than new phone sku's. IMHO, of course.
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Someday, sure. But in 2016? Even in the U.S., Apple's most successful market, there are tons of Androids being sold that Apple can convert to grow units sold. Outside of the U.S. the opportunity is even larger. And how long can Apple's competitors selling Android keep making flagship phones while not making a profit on them? Samsung is making enough of a profit that presumably they won't quit anytime soon. Microsoft has the deep pockets. But other manufacturers? Things look really rough for them. Can they afford to do the R&D NOW to compete with iPhone 6S, 7 and 7s? If they can't, then can they keep up in the years to come?
 
satchmo said:
They may have to if they want to make any kind of dent in emerging markets like South America and India.

Unlike China, there isn't a huge middle class that can afford $650 iPhones.
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A "dent" or 50% of the market? Apple is clearly making a dent in those markets now. I think Apple is content for those countries to settle into: iPhone is used by the "wealthy", Android by the rest of folks. Think how powerful that marketing position is. Apple isn't going to chase majority of market in those countries. There is plenty of room to grow just to get iPhone to have same market share in Europe and Japan as Apple enjoys in the U.S.
 
I don't think they'll ever release Watch sales numbers or numbers for any new product line if they can avoid it. I'd bet if they could start all over again they'd never release iPhone sales figures either but it's too late to stop now as it would be taken as a sign of imminent doom.
 
I almost always read that he is "well informed". But an analysis a few months ago of his predictions show that it's at about 50%. In other words, randomly accurate.
 
If I could redo my life, I'd come back as an analyst... or a weatherman. Both get paid really well, whether their predictions are right or wrong.
 
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Where do they get these estimates from? Just pulling them out of their rear end?
 
TallManNY said:
A "dent" or 50% of the market? Apple is clearly making a dent in those markets now. I think Apple is content for those countries to settle into: iPhone is used by the "wealthy", Android by the rest of folks. Think how powerful that marketing position is. Apple isn't going to chase majority of market in those countries. There is plenty of room to grow just to get iPhone to have same market share in Europe and Japan as Apple enjoys in the U.S.
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I believe in order for Apple to sustain it's meteoric sales, they can't continue to rely on European/N.A/and China. While there is still huge potential in China (given the massive population), it will at some point settle down. This is where India can make up the difference. And I suspect Apple would want to make more than a dent.

The iPhone is clearly a premium device and I'm not suggesting any dramatic price cut. Perhaps some aggressive subsidized pricing with carriers. But iOS market share in India is currently around 2%. With a population of over a billion people, I'm not sure Apple can ignore that.
 
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Ming gets so many "predictions" wrong, but yet MacRumors gives her prime headlines all the time. I think its time to tell her that past performance is a good indicator of the future when it comes to clairvoyants.
 
v0lume4 said:
Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.
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When the comp is good enough for apple to lose sales and it doesn't seem likely it will happen anytime soon
 
Lesser Evets said:
No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.
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Who provides smartphone sales figures besides Apple? Are you suggesting then that apart from iPhone all smartphone sales are dismal? Microsoft doesn't provide sales figures for Surface either. I guess you thinks sales of that product must be dismal too?

There is no benefit to Apple providing sales figures. All it does is provide a big fat target they'll be expected to beat every quarter. I'm glad they've stopped doing it for iPad. They should only offer up what the SEC requires on a quarterly basis.
 
No one ever fired an analyst for being wrong. They have great job security. They can make up numbers that aren't even close and yet they'll be around next quarter making the same mistakes.

I know I'm going to be pissed when Amazon goes up $50 on earnings and Apple goes down $5. Profitless Amazon destroys profitable Apple yet again in share gains. I'll be pondering how Amazon always makes its investors happy but Apple can only disappoint investors. I guess it's just a matter of having the right CEO for the job. There's really too much pessimism surrounding Apple product sales. Even if sales are good one quarter, everyone swears they won't last for the next. I don't think it's even possible for any company to keep that up forever. I just don't see why a company loses its value because its growth slows. I would think it's value would simply stabilize, not drop. Because everyone believes Apple is past its prime, I suppose Apple's value will continue to wane. Apple could have really done a lot with that $140 billion they threw away on share repurchasing. Just thinking about that huge loss gives me a headache.
 
AustinIllini said:
He didn't say anything I would describe as "brilliant" or "accurate"
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The person you replied to thinks that anything anti-Apple is brilliant and accurate. He literally only shows up in threads to whine about Apple.

And I don't use the term "literally" lightly.
 
TallManNY said:
He just did boast about it. He recently said they sold a lot at launch quarter, more in the following quarter and he predicted they would sell even more in the following quarter. That sounds like boasting to me.

I also see many stores that are starting to carry the watch. Do you think they are just doing that for fun? Those stores probably get confidential information about sales and they probably hear about demand from their customers. So I think the watch is selling "fine". I'm not sure what "fine" is in numbers. But it doesn't seem like a flop.
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This is what I don't understand. Why expand distribution (and models, bands) for a product that is failing? Why would Best Buy start out with ~300 stores and then not long after expand it to all stores if they weren't selling any? Why give up real estate to a product no one wants? Why would a company like Hermés choose to partner with Apple on a failed product? It's not like Hermés needs Apple.
 
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Jeez, who doesn't already have an iPhone 6s that needs one? 75M more people? Are cell phones really a gift anymore? "Merry Christmas! I got you the gift of 24 months of over $100/mo payments, plus a gadget that will drive you crazy with bugs!". Nice gift for your worst enemy.
 
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dmylrea said:
Jeez, who doesn't already have an iPhone 6s that needs one? 75M more people? Are cell phones really a gift anymore? "Merry Christmas! I got you the gift of 24 months of over $100/mo payments, plus a gadget that will drive you crazy with bugs!". Nice gift for your worst enemy.
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Says the guy who owns an iPhone 6
 
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