KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

[Zirel]

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

So, what you are saying is that Apple will sell less watches in the Christmas period than in the Summer period?

Nobody buys a watch for Christmas! That's something that goes with Summer like motorcycles and ice cream!

 

[fourthtunz]

Do you think they'll ever get rid of the biggest bezels in the industry?

That HUGE Chin and Forehead are so 2007.

Don't even get started on the ridiculous antenna bands. Gaudy at best.

Yeah, its not a problem for me but I get that it is for others.
I always have a case for my phones so the bands aren't an issue for me.
I'm just being cheap! I saw what I had already paid for my 128 gig iPhone 6 and realized that if I traded
up for the new iPhone 6 that I would basically be eating about $500 and though I wouldn't mind having the new 6S
I can wait at least until the 7, as the iPhone 6 is pretty damned good!

 

[TallManNY]

I believe in order for Apple to sustain it's meteoric sales, they can't continue to rely on European/N.A/and China. While there is still huge potential in China (given the massive population), it will at some point settle down. This is where India can make up the difference. And I suspect Apple would want to make more than a dent.

The iPhone is clearly a premium device and I'm not suggesting any dramatic price cut. Perhaps some aggressive subsidized pricing with carriers. But iOS market share in India is currently around 2%. With a population of over a billion people, I'm not sure Apple can ignore that.

There is this common but somewhat useless metric that counts units sold year over year. I'd say Apple can tell you that metric can't continue to rise 20 to 30% a year for very much longer. But Wall Street is expecting this number to actually go down, as in negative growth. The real issue is for Apple to get revenue. That means Units times sales price. Lowering the sales price for everyone, just so a few more people buy your units, is not necessarily a winning move. But Wall Street constantly says, "This is the year that Apple has to lower its price to gain market share." They've been saying this for the Mac for two decades and they've been saying this for the iPhone since its launch.

I think the carriers will provide a subsidy. Every major carrier in the U.S. will give you an iPhone with no money down and no "contract" now. Yes you have to pay them for the iPhone over time with your bill. But if you have decent credit you can walk into any major carrier now and walk out with a new iPhone for nothing more than some minimal service set up charge. I suspect this will be the case in all countries soon.

I don't necessarily have heartburn with any of your opinions, but for the sake of conversation:

Sure. And maybe they'll get a few of those. But price point is important and many of the Android users don't care about the Apple ecosystem. If they can browse their FB page and get calls (I'd venture the primary use for most casual users) even a great, albeit expensive iPhone will not attract the needed converts to sustain the then to now observed growth. At some point, sooner than later I might guess based on the sea of new and used options out there, will need to adjust their price or tap emergent markets to keep the growth going as it has been in the past.

I'll assume the last one standing will have the most compelling Android product. Previous Android users will turn to them rather than Apple (for the most part). If so, then that OEM will satisfy that need and Apple still won't be able to attract enough converts to sustain the previous growth curve.

Nobody but NOBODY will capitulate the mobile market to Apple. The stakes are just too high. Someone may fold, but someone else will fill the void.

I sure hope so. As much as I like my iP6, I sure as heck don't want to see only Apple left standing with no one else to keep them honest.

I hope those Android phone makers keep marching along to keep Apple on its toes. But I suspect that many will abdicate the high end market. You will watch their phones lose another step or two to the iPhone as the R&D budgets dry up.

The other huge issue for Android is will the developer community continue to support it with Apps. There seems to be a sense that at least the U.S. developer community is going to slow down even more fairly soon. Apple just has too much of the paying user portion of the market.

The deep pockets of Google and Microsoft are going to keep fighting. It is going to be very cool to see what Microsoft can do with basically no developer or customer support, but billions of dollars and a company basically at stake. We might see some huge financial bets in the near future. Giving away Windows 10 to all their best customers (those who own Windows 7 and 8 would probably be their best customers) was just a mammoth move to eat their own cash cow. Will Microsoft ever be able to charge for a Windows upgrade again? Let us see.

 

[agsystems]

Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.

Why? there are over a billion phones sold every year - if they can get their upgrade program in China, India, Brazil, etc. there is no limit on how many they can sell.

I don't think they'll ever release Watch sales numbers or numbers for any new product line if they can avoid it. I'd bet if they could start all over again they'd never release iPhone sales figures either but it's too late to stop now as it would be taken as a sign of imminent doom.

They learned from the iPad - providing numbers worked against them.

That's the exact same thing they said with iPhone 6. There's a point where the iPhone will we too powerful to the point that it becomes a Mac. Will last for years and well no real reason to upgrade. Declines should start happening within a few years

Smartphones are once in a lifetime products...think about it - the seller (carriers) will help you sell your product and give incentives (free/no contract/installment) to get one every year. There is nothing else like in the market.

Look at this
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/sprint-dollar-iphone/

 

[ani4ani]

Yeah--I don't know why people have such short memories about this. Well before one person even owned an Apple Watch, we knew they would not be sharing sales figures. And that's because everything Apple makes will now be compared to iPhone sales--Apple knows anything less than that would be considered a failure so they just choose not to play that game with the media. Unfortunately, MacRumors forum members still make it into something it's not.

Like saying crap software is beta...oh yea Apple been known to do that too.

 

[Four oF NINE]

I've got an iPhone 6 and I don't need or have any intention of getting a 6S.

I bet you wouldn't turn one down if someone offered you a free one, would you?

 

[Tech198]

Nobody buys a watch for Christmas!

Wanna bet....

I guess for iPhone 6s shipments to go down because there too similar. just bigger screen

 

[The Game 161]

Wanna bet....

I guess for iPhone 6s shipments to go down because there too similar. just bigger screen

I know my dad gets one every year at christmas. Not sure why but he just does. I love my apple watch however I wouldn't feel the need to upgrade every year like I will with iphone and Ipad

The watch does everything I need it to really. Time, texts, notifications, fitness and general apps which I find useful on the go

 

[OllyW]

I bet you wouldn't turn one down if someone offered you a free one, would you?

Sure. I'll send you a private message with the delivery address.

 

[TallManNY]

Even that difference is not big enough to offset the total profit in this one year, it generates larger benefit to Apple by making sure enough people to stay familiar with iPhone's user interface, not the Android's.

To help you understand how important that factor is, I can tell you that I've heard 4 times from 4 different friends of mine that, after long time consideration and trying different computers in the stores, they chose Windows computers over Macs, not for price reasons, as their employers were paying. They liked the hardware design of Macs a lot more, but it is much more comfortable for them to use the Windows user interface, even though they all heard a lot about the easy-to-use and less-prone-to-virus attributes of Mac OS. That's how strong habits can affect the sales in the long run!

"Enough people stay familiar with iPhone's user interface"?!?!? Do you think that is really an issue. Babies can use an iPad by the time they are two years old with ease. It isn't a hard interface. Apple is gaining users. Their iPhones are all over the resale market bringing in folks who don't want to pay full price.

I'm well aware of Windows advantage over Mac OS. But Android isn't even nearly close to as entrenched.

 

[Phil A.]

How is that the case? Apple never gave customers the opportunity to decide. They said- here are the 2 new phones, if you want latest tech/camera, here are your only options (4.7 and 5.5 screens). I have a bunch of friends (many who have 6/6s) who said they would have preferred to stick with a 4-inch model.

Yeah, but the only number that matters to Apple is lost sales and whether that's worth the expense of keeping a 3rd size in the line up. I guess Apple don't think it is and they are pretty well informed, I'd think

 

[v0lume4]

Why? there are over a billion phones sold every year - if they can get their upgrade program in China, India, Brazil, etc. there is no limit on how many they can sell.

No, I didn't mean that they would stop selling iPhones each year. I meant that there will be a point where the market becomes saturated enough that they aren't increasing sales each year. There are only so many people on the earth. And most of those people aren't upgrading every year. Some not even upgrading every two years.