KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

[SwissGuy93]

Yeah I remember the supply issues with the jet black. Some people waited for up to two months and bearing in mind that the iPhone X is being launched 5 weeks later than the normal late September release, I can see orders slipping in to January when you consider that things generally shut down for two weeks over the Xmas period

Yeah, but China normally does not shut down over the holidays (we work with a lot of chinese companies). So the only problem will be the shipping, but I guess that deliveries will still be made during the xmas period. The one thing that triggers me is the chinese new year. Companies normally shut down for 2-4 weeks at the end of January until mid-Feburary. That could be a pain for Apple. But I am not certain how Foxconn handles this.

 

[0098386]

Shipments will pick up in first quarter 2018! Yea half way to the next iPhone release. Enjoy your 6 months with a new phone you waited 6 months to get.

Huh, why would they only enjoy 6mo?

 

[Persicuta]

If true then with such constrained supplies I think that the initial launch will only be to a handful of countries. Perhaps 2 million phones to the states. Half million to the U.K. and Germany and the rest to China. I can’t see worldwide launch till next year.

Yeah, na. What about Australia, mate? Have to remember we are the first country to get them we live in the future so Apple love the hype from downunder!

 

[manu chao]

The iPhone 8 and 5C are previous generation iPhones.

The iPhone 8 is a much a previous-gen phone as the 's' versions of previous years were. And production of the shell of the 5c was something new. Everything new needs a production ramp up and things can go wrong during it (see white iPhone 4).

You still don't get it . Prior to preorders its marketing / rumours / whatever you want to call it.

Equating rumours with marketing is almost the definition of a conspiracy theory.

The point im making is that the rumours of dire supply prior to preorder never equate to the amount of phones apple delivers ..... for launch.

Really? Have you plotted the rumoured production numbers against shipping times for previous years, showing that there is no correlation?

So when this all goes down - compare how many units of iPhone 7 from last year and iPhone x this year were shipped for launch . These are the numbers you are interested in

I am eagerly awaiting your report of how many iPhone X Apple has shipped during the first week of November.

 

[0098386]

My 7+ has recently been plagued by safari constantly freezing... the home button has allowed me to close it. Gestures anywhere on the screen did not work. I really would be worried about a phone that doesn't have a physical button.... I guess that's just me though.

My 6 has such problems and I thought upgrading to an 8 would fix it- nope! But now I’m hopeful Apple will finally fix such problems because there’s about to be a few million people complaining at them .
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Same same same stories each year. Just marketing spin to drum up publicity and get you to pre-order. Pattern repeats

That isn’t the case though as hardware does sell out.

 

[eVolcre]

If true then with such constrained supplies I think that the initial launch will only be to a handful of countries. Perhaps 2 million phones to the states. Half million to the U.K. and Germany and the rest to China. I can’t see worldwide launch till next year.

That is why I don't believe a word from KGI. Apple would not launch in 55 countries if they were unsure if they could supply a somewhat adaquate quantity. Imagine this: 2 Mio. divided by 55 is 36363.4 units per Country. That would mean less than 10000 per SKU per country. That is just not going to happen. All the carriers need stock too, the stores need some kind of launch quantities and then there are the pre-orders placed directly through the Apple Store App and the Website.
Apple would, if there was the slightest indication that they could not supply, have made a staged launch.

Even the iPhone 7 was not launched in that many countries at once. There has never been this big of a launch.

No idea how Apple allocates launch stock between countries but I can tell you that here in India the retail partners are still expecting exactly what Apple promised them a few months ago. It’ll definitely be limited quantities but none of the reports of the last two weeks have changed my store managers estimate. As late as a few minutes ago he confirmed that there will be stock at launch decided on high levels (country between his bosses and Apple) and internally decided by the local manager and the regional level.

He could be wrong I could be wrong and we’re all really guessing but somehow I just don’t think stock is AS constrained as it’s appearing to be. Such low yields would at least change the country by country allocation or reduce launch countries to say just US and Europe. That hasn’t happened (yet)

 

[MH01]

The iPhone 8 is a much a previous-gen phone as the 's' versions of previous years were. And production of the shell of the 5c was something new. Everything new needs a production ramp up and things can go wrong during it (see white iPhone 4).

Equating rumours with marketing is almost the definition of a conspiracy theory.

Really? Have you plotted the rumoured production numbers against shipping times for previous years, showing that there is no correlation?

I am eagerly awaiting your report of how many iPhone X Apple has shipped during the first week of November.

Do a google search.... for iPhone 7 supply shortages

Examples of many many...

https://9to5mac.com/2016/08/26/apple-iphone-7-launch-supply-component-shortage/

Do you see a pattern in the story here?

And let me guess , magically you and your friends still got your units?

Simple analysis . Forget the conspiracy crap.

5C / 8 - have you not realised that apples most popular phone is the flagship? Hope you realised that messed up completely with the 5C example, check out the sales of it v its premium brother

 

[lotsalag]

3,000,000 phones for over 3,500,000,000 potential customers across China, India, US and Europe.

October 27 is going to be an absolute blood bath.

The scalpers are going to have a field day.

 

[Bazooka-joe]

Yeah, na. What about Australia, mate? Have to remember we are the first country to get them we live in the future so Apple love the hype from downunder!

Ah yeah. I forgot Australia.... half a dozen units for the Aussies

 

[Nozuka]

My 7+ has recently been plagued by safari constantly freezing... the home button has allowed me to close it. Gestures anywhere on the screen did not work. I really would be worried about a phone that doesn't have a physical button.... I guess that's just me though.

i'm not worried. there are still physical buttons on the X. worst case, you can just do a cold restart.

 

[MH01]

That isn’t the case though as hardware does sell out.

Always has and always will - these rumours though generate revenue and hype and follow the same pattern of one or two suppliers not meeting demand etc

 

[Bazooka-joe]

Well rumors aside, this time next week we will know for sure about shipping times for orders placed in the first hour

 

[rovolo]

Apple sold 10 million 6/6Plus and 13 million 6s/6sPlus units during launch weekend.

If they have "only" 2-3 million handsets ready for the iPhone X launch there should still be a fair chance to get one on launch day – as long as you get your order in within the first minutes. I'm not too worried.

 

[eVolcre]

Forget the Apple order site this forum is going to be insane. Haha. Good thing everyone’s online. The fist fights will only be virtual. Between the “I didn’t get my order” and the “I told you so “ and the “ woooop I’m getting an X on the 3rd” it’s going to be a bloodbath around here.

 

[SwissGuy93]

No idea how Apple allocates launch stock between countries but I can tell you that here in India the retail partners are still expecting exactly what Apple promised them a few months ago. It’ll definitely be limited quantities but none of the reports of the last two weeks have changed my store managers estimate. As late as a few minutes ago he confirmed that there will be stock at launch decided on high levels (country between his bosses and Apple) and internally decided by the local manager and the regional level.

He could be wrong I could be wrong and we’re all really guessing but somehow I just don’t think stock is AS constrained as it’s appearing to be. Such low yields would at least change the country by country allocation or reduce launch countries to say just US and Europe. That hasn’t happened (yet)

Yeah, I am sure that there won't be a flood of iPhone X available, but as you said I don't think it's going to be this drastic as some suggest.
My numbers above were just a rough estimate but I think they prove my point. Every iPhone has been somewhat constrained, and the iPhone X is not going to be an exception. but this whole: "Oh you will get it six month before the next one comes out" is just exaggerated. I agree with you. Apple would have changed something in the launch countries if the stock would be that dramatic.

 

[eVolcre]

Yeah, I am sure that there won't be a flood of iPhone X available, but as you said I don't think it's going to be this drastic as some suggest.
My numbers above were just a rough estimate but I think they prove my point. Every iPhone has been somewhat constrained, and the iPhone X is not going to be an exception. but this whole: "Oh you will get it six month before the next one comes out" is just exaggerated. I agree with you. Apple would have changed something in the launch countries if the stock would be that dramatic.

Reduce launch countries or heck even delay launch. You think an iOS faithful is going to switch brands? If anything they’ll buy an 8. Instead of pissing off everyone with delivery in 2018 wait two months and ramp up production.

All these rumors are fine. As long as Apple is set on nov 3 and 55 countries I’ll take it all with a grain of salt.

 

[Tork]

Yes, let this dissuade you all from ordering an iPhone X and waiting until the next gen. Especially the 64GB T-Mo Space Gray one. Don’t even try. Me? I’m just getting up for the day at 2:45 am Eastern next Friday. Total coincidence.....

 

[SwissGuy93]

Reduce launch countries or heck even delay launch. You think an iOS faithful is going to switch brands? If anything they’ll buy an 8. Instead of pissing off everyone with delivery in 2018 wait two months and ramp up production.

All these rumors are fine. As long as Apple is set on nov 3 and 55 countries I’ll take it all with a grain of salt.

That is true. And Apple knows how much they depend on the iPhone X.

Yeah, it's a ridiculously big launch. Even Greenland is in the first wave. So I am sure that they will meet the demand somehow, and we will not wait until 2018 like some suggest.

Completely agree with that.

 

[zhandri]

Reduce launch countries or heck even delay launch. You think an iOS faithful is going to switch brands? If anything they’ll buy an 8. Instead of pissing off everyone with delivery in 2018 wait two months and ramp up production.

All these rumors are fine. As long as Apple is set on nov 3 and 55 countries I’ll take it all with a grain of salt.

all my devices are apple devices besides my gaming PC. and personally if they screw up the X launch and i wouldn't get one in the foreseeable future (let's say until december), no way in hell i would get an iphone 8 and still give apple my money.

 

[eVolcre]

That is true. And Apple knows how much they depend on the iPhone X.

Yeah, it's a ridiculously big launch. Even Greenland is in the first wave. So I am sure that they will meet the demand somehow, and we will not wait until 2018 like some suggest.

Completely agree with that.

Greenland’s easy though. Only two people live there and one is a penguin
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all my devices are apple devices besides my gaming PC. and personally if they screw up the X launch and i wouldn't get one in the foreseeable future (let's say until december), no way in hell i would get an iphone 8 and still give apple my money.

Ok so let’s use you as a test case. What would you do if launch goes haywire ? Switch to android? Hold on to what you have ? Bitch a bit and then still buy the X when it’s out ? Genuinely curious.

I’m not even that vested in Apple. Can easily go back and forth (and do) most things are in the cloud now. But with an Apple Watch and majority of systems running on OS X or iOS I don’t see myself leaving the ecosystem now. The airpods captured me and while I may carry a work blackberry the main personal like will always be an iPhone. I’ll be upset. Then shrug my shoulders and wait. Life goes on it’s just a phone.

 

[kingax1]

All honesty, I was interested in getting this but if I have to wait until February or March to get the phone I only have a few more measly months until the iPhone Xs is announced. My 6s plus is still working ok (battery a little iffy) and it has a headphone jack Im not really too crazy about this as I was a month ago. Time ticks fast and X will be old fast.

 

[zhandri]

Greenland’s easy though. Only two people live there and one is a penguin
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Ok so let’s use you as a test case. What would you do if launch goes haywire ? Switch to android? Hold on to what you have ? Bitch a bit and then still buy the X when it’s out ? Genuinely curious.

I’m not even that vested in Apple. Can easily go back and forth (and do) most things are in the cloud now. But with an Apple Watch and majority of systems running on OS X or iOS I don’t see myself leaving the ecosystem now. The airpods captured me and while I may carry a work blackberry the main personal like will always be an iPhone. I’ll be upset. Then shrug my shoulders and wait. Life goes on it’s just a phone.

i really don't know yet... maybe try the Pixel 2 XL. i'm just sick of my iphone 6! i need something new. again, i don't think it will be as bad as everyone is predicting and i actually think that even if i don't get one on launch day it shouldn't take longer than 2 weeks.

 

[eVolcre]

Btw one big point here. Everyone may be OVERESTIMATING demand. It’s an expensive phone. From what I can tell people are skipping the 8 to get a 7 it’s such a bargain.

This forum simply doesn’t count. We’re rabid fans. How do we know exactly what demand is going to be? Because this ming guy says so? Please! Seems like he (and apple) was wrong with the 8 demand. Folks are buying the 7. It works. It’s good and the upgrades from there are incremental (for normal users ) or design Based (tech fans and fashionistas). Well know in a week my feeling is those who preorder as before in the first few hours will end up getting an X.

 

[Gregg Thurman]

If I see another “report” from Kuo I’m going to puke.

He has been all over the map with claims of production constraints, claiming first it was 3D sensors for facial recognition and now its flexible PCBs. Kuo’s original iPhone unit sales number for the iPhone X was 50 million, dropped to 40 million, then 30 million and now 25 million.

ANYBODY that believes this ass wipe is STUPID to the nth degree.

 

[zhandri]

Btw one big point here. Everyone may be OVERESTIMATING demand. It’s an expensive phone. From what I can tell people are skipping the 8 to get a 7 it’s such a bargain.

This forum simply doesn’t count. We’re rabid fans. How do we know exactly what demand is going to be? Because this ming guy says so? Please! Seems like he (and apple) was wrong with the 8 demand. Folks are buying the 7. It works. It’s good and the upgrades from there are incremental (for normal users ) or design Based (tech fans and fashionistas). Well know in a week my feeling is those who preorder as before in the first few hours will end up getting an X.

that's what i've been saying since they announced the phone. the 64 gig is almost 1500$ in some EU countries. i don't see them selling more of this one on a launch weekend than the 6S and 6S+ when they came out, which were 13 million. also taking into account that they probably already sold 4-5 million iphone 8. this is not your average joe customer iphone. this is for the die-hard fans
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If I see another “report” from Kuo I’m going to puke.

He has been all over the map with claims of production constraints, claiming first it was 3D sensors for facial recognition and now its flexible PCBs. Kuo’s original iPhone unit sales number for the iPhone X was 50 million, dropped to 40 million, then 30 million and now 25 million.

ANYBODY that believes this ass wipe is STUPID to the nth degree.

yeah i think he pretty much took that 400k per week report and multiplied by 5 to just throw a number out there