KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

[Fox Fisher]

He meant this. The iPhone X demo where Face ID fails for Craig Federighi.

Ho Ho HO!

It’s not fail, not even close. The guys before presentation tried to unlock it with their faces and the phone is Carls so it asked for Lock Code after 2 failed attempts as it should. If you look at the video the phone screen clearly says “Enter Passcode” directly.

 

[Brookzy]

I am not sure that the Apple retail stores will have launch quantities. Not for the last two years for the 6s and 7 plus models. There will be no overnight queues at the retail stores as they just won’t have stock

Press release:

iPhone X will be available for pre-order beginning Friday, October 27 in more than 55 countries and territories, and in stores beginning Friday, November 3.

 

[Veinticinco]

Why a picture of the London underground (I love so much)?

Says someone who evidently hasn't had the "pleasure" of using it on a regular basis.

 

[ssrij]

Apple sold 10 million 6/6Plus and 13 million 6s/6sPlus units during launch weekend.

If they have "only" 2-3 million handsets ready for the iPhone X launch there should still be a fair chance to get one on launch day – as long as you get your order in within the first minutes. I'm not too worried.

Millions of people will be trying to get their orders in "the first minutes". So obviously you will not get it within the first minute unless you're very lucky and you're able to beat the rest by mere milliseconds.

 

[ValO]

The iphone x is a transitional device for the supply chain . It prepares the supply chain to mass produce newer and more advanced tech in future products. The flexible pcb, and camera/faceid tech is first and will catch up in a few months. And in a year the oled supply and production will be up to par.
It will allow apple to make faster advancements in iphones after the x.
They are basically removing the restraints of the supply that held them back the last 3 years, and can start the tech spec war now(just like they moved past the competetion with their a socs the last 2 years).

 

[Bacillus]

Why not offer the waiting iPhone X buyers a free temporary iPhone 8 (that seem to be overabundant, and they can easily resell as refurbs - which isn't anything new nowadays)

 

[SwissGuy93]

Millions of people will be trying to get their orders in "the first minutes". So obviously you will not get it within the first minute unless you're very lucky and you're able to beat the rest by mere milliseconds.

Yes, but with the quantities divided per country your chances will be higher again. And there are a lot of first wave countries that cannot pre-order with Apple.

 

[Cryates]

This will be about the same as every year. Those who order in the first few minutes will see a launch day shipment. Those who wait even a few minutes will be delayed.

Two things: A) total weekend sales record for iPhone is 13mil. That number is over the course of three days. You’d expect 3am sharp orders to probably make up a fraction of that, probably somewhere around 25% and the initial demand for iPhone X will probably not be as high as it was for iPhone 6/6 Plus and B) shipments will likely be staggered for countries with the USA getting the bulk of the initial launch day shipments.

 

[SwissGuy93]

The iphone x is a transitional device for the supply chain . It prepares the supply chain to mass produce newer and more advanced tech in future products. The flexible pcb, and camera/faceid tech is first and will catch up in a few months. And in a year the oled supply and production will be up to par.
It will allow apple to make faster advancements in iphones after the x.
They are basically removing the restraints of the supply that held them back the last 3 years, and can start the tech spec war now(just like they moved past the competetion with their a socs the last 2 years).

that could very well be true. We have seen this with a lot of other products. Water resistency was a key feature of the Apple Watch but also a trial production for the iPhone's water resistency. The iPhone 5c was a glimps at having two "flagship" phones launched at the same time (so they would be prepared for the 6 & 6 Plus) etc.

 

[BruceEBonus]

Not the phone for you then, congrats you don’t need to worry about supply

Nice - that's a double bonus for BruceEBonus!

("Really? Zzzzzzzz"- Macrumors Ed.)

 

[Bacillus]

The iphone x is a transitional device for the supply chain . It prepares the supply chain to mass produce newer and more advanced tech in future products. The flexible pcb, and camera/faceid tech is first and will catch up in a few months. And in a year the oled supply and production will be up to par.
It will allow apple to make faster advancements in iphones after the x.
They are basically removing the restraints of the supply that held them back the last 3 years, and can start the tech spec war now(just like they moved past the competetion with their a socs the last 2 years).

Agree for the 3D Cam.
For the rest they are crawling to stay current (designwise, OLED, inductive charging, screeen resolution, RAM, camera, fragile backside, ludicrous screen obstruction, mediocre battery life)

 

[OllyW]

Why not offer the waiting iPhone X buyers a free temporary iPhone 8 (that seem to be overabundant, and they can easily resell as refurbs - which isn't anything new nowadays)

I would say most potential iPhone X customers already own a decent smartphone so why would they need a free temporary iPhone 8?

 

[2IS]

I feel they just make this **** up now. First it was the true depth camera now it’s the PCB

 

[Bacillus]

I would say most potential iPhone X customers already own a decent smartphone so why would they need a free temporary iPhone 8?

To ease waiting irritation/market unrest/unwanted publicity/stock price dip/excessive iPhone 8 stock

 

[zhandri]

I feel they just make this **** up now. First it was the true depth camera now it’s the PCB

tomorrow: one of the factory workers was feeling a little bit under the weather so production rate is reduced to 10 devices per day for the next 2 weeks

 

[DNichter]

Not really worried about it at this point. I'll just see what happens.

 

[rovolo]

Millions of people will be trying to get their orders in "the first minutes". So obviously you will not get it within the first minute unless you're very lucky and you're able to beat the rest by mere milliseconds.

Well, obviously I've been "very lucky" for a long time. Got every iPhone since the 3G on launch day - even the 6 Plus which was in very short supply compared to demand.
I think we highly overestimate the amount of people who actually sit there at X.01 o'clock refreshing their 2 iDevices plus 1 Mac like maniacs to get their order in before X.02 o'clock.

And considering the pricing of the X I'm very optimistic for my order next week.

 

[JosephAW]

That's okay you can have my X. I'm happy with the 7+

 

[Brookzy]

Ming picking numbers out of the air again. How is 2-3 million even a valid estimate? A 50% range?

Anyway, I don't know why these analysts don't just get some contacts at UPS/DHL/whoever to leak what weight and volume is shipping out of the X factories on Apple's account, and then reverse-calculate the unit quantity. Would be far more accurate.

 

[I7guy]

Agree for the 3D Cam.
For the rest they are crawling to stay current (designwise, OLED, inductive charging, screeen resolution, RAM, camera, fragile backside, ludicrous screen obstruction, mediocre battery life)

The same constraints as other phones in other words. Better o/s is the difference. But your analogy is similar to cars right? All cars break when you crash them.

 

[Radon87000]

I will set my alarms for the time. Will see what happens. If the delay goes beyond 2 months I will get the Note 8.

 

[TrueBlou]

The video of Craig Federighi locked out of his own iPhone X speaks for itself.

Enjoy having it "perform exactly as it was supposed to."

Yes exactly, damn that security layer, why won’t it just unlock for everyone

 

[symphara]

50+ countries with 3 million projected for launch. This should be great...

That's ok, prices for 49+ countries (i.e. outside the US) are so outrageous that very few people will be able to afford one. So they don't need to make that many.

 

[nia820]

If you plan on getting an iPhone x in November, you better have your fingers ready to order at midnight on October 27th.

 

[Jsameds]

The video of Craig Federighi locked out of his own iPhone X speaks for itself.

No it doesn't, as there is no context to it. If I had attempted multiple failed entries into a phone via TouchID and then you saw a video of it failing for the owner, would you also think TouchID was a fail?

Go read about why it happened.