KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

[SwissGuy93]

Not sure what you mean by "marginally". The base 64Gb model costs CHF1200, and since this storage is not expandable, you really need the 256Gb model if you're to use that fancy 4k@60fps, which costs CHF1400. That's Macbook Pro money, and it's a lot more expensive than the US.

If you're patient and not order it from the Apple website at launch, you can get it in the US without sales tax too, if you buy it online from another state. You cannot avoid VAT in Europe.

Who subsidises your iPhone X? Swisscom, with a subscription of 200 a month? Don't make me laugh. As far as I know nobody else gives any subsidy whatsoever.

What you can get is an interest-free loan, coupled with being tied in a contract (usually 2 years) and paying for the device in installments. Is that a good deal? I don't think so. Being able to switch networks when you need to, or indeed, terminate the contract, can save you a lot more than the foregone interest on the loan.

Whoever thinks that a CHF1400 device is cheaper because they can pay for it in installments is a fool, plain and simple, and as we know, it's a sin not to part a fool from his money - which is exactly what Apple and the carriers are doing here with these "deals".

Most people in Switzerland aren't fools though. I don't think it will sell well here, or anywhere else in Europe for that matter. It's a Vertu-like status symbol after all.

For one, I will get the 64 GB model, as this is plenty of space when I have iCloud Photos.

You seem to forget that everything that is being sent to Switzerland will have to go through customs. So unless you buy it yourself in the states and then take it home with you without declaring it, then you will have to pay not only the customs costs but also the VAT. And if you buy it without declaring it, then you are doing something illegal. And as a good Swiss citizen, that is not so easily fooled, you wouldn't do that.

Swisscom does not only have 200 CHF subscriptions and you know that very well. And you forget that the average customer does not just switch phone companies all the time. That is why nobody rarely is gaining market share in Switzerland. If they would switch then Swisscom would not have many customers any more.

I have never said that it was cheaper but it softens the blow a bit, when you only have to pay a certain amount per month and not all at once.

But I guess you got it all figured out. I wonder if Tim will stop the production, should he happen to read your razor sharp market analysis. All I know is, that three of my friends are planning on preordering it. So, I guess we are fools.

 

[Adelphos33]

I'm buying the iPhone Xs in September 2018

 

[iRobertM]

I am not hyped. I will not buy this phone.

 

[Sasparilla]

The one good thing in all this is it has allowed Apple to stockpile the Samsung displays since that will be a limiting item. Once the components are all there they should be able to make alot of these relatively quickly till they catch up with the display limit.

i have a couple more payments before i can upgrade, ot lets me sit back and have the first batch of Iphone X's to get into the hands of people for any flaws to come out and hopefully fixed...

Looking at Apple's track record with new tech in their devices - there are often issues with gen 1.0 products (so it wouldn't be unexpected). Not to the unwashed masses who expect their iPhones to just work though. The face recognition has to be flawless or it will be a fiasco.

The truly smart decision (taking emotions and desire out) is to probably wait till next year and get v2 of the facial recognition technology (Apple always makes alot of headway with v2 of new technology).

 

[Scarpad]

i have a couple more payments before i can upgrade, ot lets me sit back and have the first batch of Iphone X's to get into the hands of people for any flaws to come out and hopefully fixed if any, then by the time i can upgrade i can make a decision after the phone have been put thru its paces.

 

[Jmanstk]

Rumors, rumors, rumors.....and some of you actually fall for it....Gives me a chuckle....Here's an idea, if you want an iPhone X, be ready at 12:01am PST to click that order button....What happens after that is 100% out of your control...If they don't have enough, they don't have enough...I just don't see the point in getting all worked up over speculation and theories. All you can do is wait until the morning of 10/27 to know exactly what supply vs demand looks like in real life....

 

[SwissGuy93]

Seriously, if this happens to you every week, I would seek help. What's even more amazing is that several people agreed with you.

There was a pre-planned and rehearsed demonstration with the phone and he STILL couldn't get it to WORK!

Are you going to plan all your iPhone interactions now ahead of time so you do it right?

I have 3 different iPhones over the years, so I'm not an expert on them all, but I've never EVER gotten locked out of my phone through TouchID except once when I had greasy sausage fingers! LOL

I can't wait for the launch only because I want to see how quickly it drives some people mad.

Steve Jobs used to make fun of Bill Gates' failed demos. He FIRED people when that happened!

Enjoy. End of discussion.

Several people agree with me that your claims are baseless. A demonstration of a device with activated bio-lock-out is hardly a fail. It. worked. like. it. was. supposed. to.

Just do me one favor and google: "Steve jobs failed demos"
You will find countless examples. Enjoy.

Amazingly you still haven't understood what I meant in my post. What I was saying was, that the bio-lock-out happens for a reason and it is there as an security measure.

Now, if someone were to press the home button several times it would activate the bio lockout. The same thing will happen with the iPhone X if a stranger should pick up your phone several times.

And if you bothered to watch the rest of the demo you would know that there were no issues whatsoever afterwards.

 

[Bacillus]

So glass cracks and metal bends; isn’t that irrespective of budgets?

Apparently, as these budgets vanish into oblivion anyway (whether iPhone backsides get made from nanomaterial, glass or recycled bubblegum)

 

[eVolcre]

Several people agree with me that your claims are baseless. A demonstration of a device with activated bio-lock-out is hardly a fail. It. worked. like. it. was. supposed. to.

Just do me one favor and google: "Steve jobs failed demos"
You will find countless examples. Enjoy.

Amazingly you still haven't understood what I meant in my post. What I was saying was, that the bio-lock-out happens for a reason and it is there as an security measure.

Now, if someone were to press the home button several times it would activate the bio lockout. The same thing will happen with the iPhone X if a stranger should pick up your phone several times.

And if you bothered to watch the rest of the demo you would know that there were no issues whatsoever afterwards.

There's really no point replying to him and others SwissGuy. I've tried but it's pointless. I'm at the point where people who get what happened understand. People who are ok with the notch are ok. Forget about the rest. Buy the phone or don't buy the phone it's no skin off my back and no point trying to explain the obvious to people who just do NOT want to get it.

I'm saving my posts here these days for actual interesting discussion. And yes, it's 'failed' on me too. That's called bloody SECURITY! whuff!

 

[SwissGuy93]

There's really no point replying to him and others SwissGuy. I've tried but it's pointless. I'm at the point where people who get what happened understand. People who are ok with the notch are ok. Forget about the rest. Buy the phone or don't buy the phone it's no skin off my back and no point trying to explain the obvious to people who just do NOT want to get it.

I'm saving my posts here these days for actual interesting discussion. And yes, it's 'failed' on me too. That's called bloody SECURITY! whuff!

Yeah I know, I shouldn't bother. But I always get so worked up when somebody states baseless claims. It's just something I have to see past I guess. :'D

 

[rjjacobson]

Notice the difference in Appleinsider and MacRumors??? More positive spin on apple insider and a bit more negative on Mac Rumors ---"but only 2-3 million units available for launch". Same data but one likes to make more negative spin sorta fits this site ;-)

-----------------

Appleinsider:

"Apple to stockpile 2-3M iPhone X units prior to launch, component shortage eases in November

"Apple's iPhone X production woes are nearing an end, according to well-informed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who says shortages of key components like specialized handset circuit boards should resolved in November……"
--------------------
MacRummors:

"
KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

With just one week to go until pre-orders for the iPhone X begin, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released a new report indicating that the "worst [will] soon [be] over" with regards to production difficulties...."


Inete

 

[gsmornot]

The sign should have read
iPhone X
November III

 

[symphara]

For one, I will get the 64 GB model, as this is plenty of space when I have iCloud Photos.

But that's another monthly expense. It keeps piling on. It's like some people make it their life goal to keep Apple awash in cash. Utterly bizarre.

You seem to forget that everything that is being sent to Switzerland will have to go through customs. So unless you buy it yourself in the states and then take it home with you without declaring it, then you will have to pay not only the customs costs but also the VAT. And if you buy it without declaring it, then you are doing something illegal. And as a good Swiss citizen, that is not so easily fooled, you wouldn't do that.

No idea what you're talking about. I was quoting Swiss Apple store prices, for buying in Switzerland. I made no reference to bringing iPhones directly from the US. Instead, I was comparing prices US customers pay in the US vs Swiss customers in Switzerland. It's expensive vs ludicrous.

Swisscom does not only have 200 CHF subscriptions and you know that very well.

If you want subsidies on your phone, I'm not sure if you'll get a much better deal than that. Point is, a subsidised phone is really expensive.

If you cannot afford to buy a phone outright, you probably shouldn't buy it at all. Paying in installments for status symbols strikes me as being exceptionally silly and financially irresponsible.

 

[cocky jeremy]

I am not hyped. I will not buy this phone.

Thanks. One less person in my way.

 

[vcnzo]

If true then with such constrained supplies I think that the initial launch will only be to a handful of countries. Perhaps 2 million phones to the states. Half million to the U.K. and Germany and the rest to China. I can’t see worldwide launch till next year.

The 2nd larget market for the iPhone is.... France

 

[rjjacobson]

Well rumors aside, this time next week we will know for sure about shipping times for orders placed in the first hour

Yep should know soon it will be interesting for sure

 

[Macalway]

4 to 6 weeks for almost everyone. Anyone getting one on Nov 3 has won a lottery.

So the Nov 3 people will form a smug little click that will annoy everyone, while they spend their 'week' rubbing it in. Meanwhile, the rest of us watch slack jawed as scalpers rake in 3 times it's street value.

Should be fun

 

[rjjacobson]

Apple sold 10 million 6/6Plus and 13 million 6s/6sPlus units during launch weekend.

If they have "only" 2-3 million handsets ready for the iPhone X launch there should still be a fair chance to get one on launch day – as long as you get your order in within the first minutes. I'm not too worried.

My hope also I think we all will be ok ;-)

 

[deanthedev]

Looking at Apple's track record with new tech in their devices - there are often issues with gen 1.0 products (so it wouldn't be unexpected). Not to the unwashed masses who expect their iPhones to just work though. The face recognition has to be flawless or it will be a fiasco.

The truly smart decision (taking emotions and desire out) is to probably wait till next year and get v2 of the facial recognition technology (Apple always makes alot of headway with v2 of new technology).

I’ve bought every new iPhone since the 3GS. What are these issues with gen 1 products supposed to be, because I can’t recall having any.

 

[kazmac]

Not surprising...every year there are production issues of some kind. Same old marketing frenzy to whip people up into the must buy wallet-set.

If you want an X, I hope you get one. If you have to wait, may it not be too long.

 

[rjjacobson]

Greenland’s easy though. Only two people live there and one is a penguin
[doublepost=1508488676][/doublepost]

Ok so let’s use you as a test case. What would you do if launch goes haywire ? Switch to android? Hold on to what you have ? Bitch a bit and then still buy the X when it’s out ? Genuinely curious.

I’m not even that vested in Apple. Can easily go back and forth (and do) most things are in the cloud now. But with an Apple Watch and majority of systems running on OS X or iOS I don’t see myself leaving the ecosystem now. The airpods captured me and while I may carry a work blackberry the main personal like will always be an iPhone. I’ll be upset. Then shrug my shoulders and wait. Life goes on it’s just a phone.

Yep it is just a phone and my 7plus 256 is not a bad phone ;-). Yes I will be disappointed if I cannot get and x this year but indeed life does go on well said

 

[bigjnyc]

I agree with what you say, but it will be "new" News to most who Trade AAPL.

John Q public investor doesn't really move the markets.. Markets are moved by market makers, big funds and investment banks, they already had this news well before the public sees it. which explains why the stock price was down almost 4 bucks yesterday. it will correct and actually bounce back a bit this morning.

 

[rjjacobson]

All honesty, I was interested in getting this but if I have to wait until February or March to get the phone I only have a few more measly months until the iPhone Xs is announced. My 6s plus is still working ok (battery a little iffy) and it has a headphone jack Im not really too crazy about this as I was a month ago. Time ticks fast and X will be old fast.

Yes and my 7plus 256 is not that bad and with those AirPods and my Apple Watch I will be fine even if disappointed ;-)
[doublepost=1508506407][/doublepost]

Btw one big point here. Everyone may be OVERESTIMATING demand. It’s an expensive phone. From what I can tell people are skipping the 8 to get a 7 it’s such a bargain.

This forum simply doesn’t count. We’re rabid fans. How do we know exactly what demand is going to be? Because this ming guy says so? Please! Seems like he (and apple) was wrong with the 8 demand. Folks are buying the 7. It works. It’s good and the upgrades from there are incremental (for normal users ) or design Based (tech fans and fashionistas). Well know in a week my feeling is those who preorder as before in the first few hours will end up getting an X.

I agree this is more likely the case. I have a 7plus 256 now and not a bad phone at all, but yeah we are certainly all rabid fans for sure LOL

 

[Jmanstk]

Seriously, if this happens to you every week, I would seek help. What's even more amazing is that several people agreed with you.

There was a pre-planned and rehearsed demonstration with the phone and he STILL couldn't get it to WORK!

Are you going to plan all your iPhone interactions now ahead of time so you do it right?

I have 3 different iPhones over the years, so I'm not an expert on them all, but I've never EVER gotten locked out of my phone through TouchID except once when I had greasy sausage fingers! LOL

I can't wait for the launch only because I want to see how quickly it drives some people mad.

Steve Jobs used to make fun of Bill Gates' failed demos. He FIRED people when that happened!

Enjoy. End of discussion.

You do realize that everyones fingers / finger prints are different right? I myself have to type in my passcode multiple times a week when touch ID won't play nice with my fingerprint for one reason or another....Also, how can you possible base the reliability of something from ONE SINGLE OCCURANCE? Every other video I have seen of the demo's Face ID worked flawlessly....Not to say that it may not have its quirks but come on man you can't just assume that it sucks because of that one little hiccup that even has an explanation...You sir have an extremely thick skull. But no skin off my back one less person trying to pre-order.

 

[rjjacobson]

Ahha. If everyone is getting the 256 you could double guess them and get a 64. But i bet everyone does that so then the 64 gets sold out first. But!!! Apple is super smart and will double guess you all and say there’s a 64 Shortage now everyone will order a 256 which Apple has plenty of.

(I bet it’s half and half but who knows? Order the one you really need and can afford and hope for the best. I’d love to see an article about apples allocation algorithm for this launch. Would be fascinating reading )

Yeah this would be interesting to know and read about for us rabid fans ;-) but the wait to know is almost over ;-)