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stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,108
4,542
A car or van would have been a better choice. Helicopters have a poor accident rate.

Had the Government had a proper transport system he may not had needed to take a chopper to avoid traffic. He used to take the chopper to avoid traffic. There would be less traffic had the government spent some money on a proper metro or bullet train system running up and down the coast say between LA County,Orange County and San Bernadino County.
 

PracticalMac

macrumors 68030
Jan 22, 2009
2,857
5,242
Houston, TX
THOUGHT this one was a rental/lease? Kobe's helicopter seems to be black.
23899728-7931909-image-a-62_1580067344187.jpg

That is his usual ride.

I am a VFR pilot (not only one here), and have flown in LA area years ago.

Reading the new what FlightAware and Flight Radar says:

Pilot was EXTREMELY skilled, fully rated and an Instrument Instructor too (CFII in pilot terms).
Long time flying LA area, was intimately familiar with area.
He often flew Kobe back and forth from home and practice.

===========OPINION ALERT!==========
While I did consider Pilot Error as cause, looking at data available I now consider this a very low probability.

This chart is from ABS-D transpoinder data transmitted by N72EX (helicopter ID):
N72EX-Final-Minute-of-Data-1.jpg


The last 14 seconds show a rapid decent GREATER THAN 1000 feet per minute (FPM, left side numbers).
There was a brief slowdown of fall 4 seconds before impact, but when impact happened heli was going almost 5000 FPM (about 50mph) straight down.

Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) are almost always level or in a more linear rate. Aircraft descend to for landing rarely more than 3000FPM, typically 2000~2500FPM. They are also usually straight line, but N72EX was turning as it went down.

And that upward peak 3 seconds before impact is typical for an emergency auto-rotation landing.

My OPINION is I now strongly believe a mechanical failure caused this crash.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,108
4,542
That is his usual ride.

I am a VFR pilot (not only one here), and have flown in LA area years ago.

Reading the new what FlightAware and Flight Radar says:

Pilot was EXTREMELY skilled, fully rated and an Instrument Instructor too (CFII in pilot terms).
Long time flying LA area, was intimately familiar with area.
He often flew Kobe back and forth from home and practice.

===========OPINION ALERT!==========
While I did consider Pilot Error as cause, looking at data available I now consider this a very low probability.

This chart is from ABS-D transpoinder data transmitted by N72EX (helicopter ID):
N72EX-Final-Minute-of-Data-1.jpg


The last 14 seconds show a rapid decent GREATER THAN 1000 feet per minute (FPM, left side numbers).
There was a brief slowdown of fall 4 seconds before impact, but when impact happened heli was going almost 5000 FPM (about 50mph) straight down.

Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) are almost always level or in a more linear rate. Aircraft descend to for landing rarely more than 3000FPM, typically 2000~2500FPM. They are also usually straight line, but N72EX was turning as it went down.

And that upward peak 3 seconds before impact is typical for an emergency auto-rotation landing.

My OPINION is I now strongly believe a mechanical failure caused this crash.

Thanks for sharing. I read some where online that this particular chopper had no black box apparently :oops:
 

ucfgrad93

macrumors Core
Aug 17, 2007
19,554
10,843
Colorado
That is his usual ride.

I am a VFR pilot (not only one here), and have flown in LA area years ago.

Reading the new what FlightAware and Flight Radar says:

Pilot was EXTREMELY skilled, fully rated and an Instrument Instructor too (CFII in pilot terms).
Long time flying LA area, was intimately familiar with area.
He often flew Kobe back and forth from home and practice.

===========OPINION ALERT!==========
While I did consider Pilot Error as cause, looking at data available I now consider this a very low probability.

This chart is from ABS-D transpoinder data transmitted by N72EX (helicopter ID):
N72EX-Final-Minute-of-Data-1.jpg


The last 14 seconds show a rapid decent GREATER THAN 1000 feet per minute (FPM, left side numbers).
There was a brief slowdown of fall 4 seconds before impact, but when impact happened heli was going almost 5000 FPM (about 50mph) straight down.

Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) are almost always level or in a more linear rate. Aircraft descend to for landing rarely more than 3000FPM, typically 2000~2500FPM. They are also usually straight line, but N72EX was turning as it went down.

And that upward peak 3 seconds before impact is typical for an emergency auto-rotation landing.

My OPINION is I now strongly believe a mechanical failure caused this crash.

When I first heard that it was falling/descending at 4,000 fpm my initial thought was it hit something like power line, etc.
 

PracticalMac

macrumors 68030
Jan 22, 2009
2,857
5,242
Houston, TX
Thanks for sharing. I read some where online that this particular chopper had no black box apparently :oops:

"Black boxes" (they are actually orange) are only required on commercial and transports (including military)

The reason is
1. Expense (about $100,000) per aircraft.
2. Weight (significant weight in small aircraft)

But in last few years miniaturizing has made it possible to make them smaller, cheaper, and lighter.
AND video recording should now be possible.

Unfortunatly the FAA lags 10 to 15 years behind in adopting new technology.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,108
4,542
"Black boxes" (they are actually orange) are only required on commercial and transports (including military)

The reason is
1. Expense (about $100,000) per aircraft.
2. Weight (significant weight in small aircraft)

But in last few years miniaturizing has made it possible to make them smaller, cheaper, and lighter.
AND video recording should now be possible.

Unfortunatly the FAA lags 10 to 15 years behind in adopting new technology.

Not cheap..
I just saw this..

 
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iOS Geek

macrumors 68000
Nov 7, 2017
1,632
3,386
It appears that they landed near a retention pond. The experienced pilot that he is being made out to be...I wonder if he was trying to do anything he could to get to that pond. It wouldn't guarantee any survival...but it's still a better chance than hitting the ground...and he would know that.

As more comes out though, it definitely seems that while fog may have been AN issue...it wasn't THE issue. A drop at that speed doesn't happen just because you can't see. Also heard that Sikorsky is cooperating fully and they want to know if anything suggests an issue with the helicopter itself. If so, they said they want to know and be able to look into it on their end and correct it, as well as informing customers who own this specific helicopter.
 
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stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,108
4,542
Kind of figured this.. Proper bullet train and metro like they have in Asia would help a lot.


Kobe Bryant said in a 2018 podcast for Barstool Sports that he began traveling in helicopters so he would have more time to spend with his daughters instead of sitting in Los Angeles traffic.

"Traffic started getting really, really bad, and I was sitting in traffic and I wound up missing like a school play, because I was sitting in traffic," he said during the podcast. "I had to figure out a way where I could still train and focus on the craft but still not compromise family time.

"So that's when I looked into helicopters, to be able to get down and back in 15 minutes and that's when it started," he added.
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
39,844
7,681
Los Angeles
They are gradually adding train routes throughout the Los Angeles area, but it's a decades-long effort. Ironically, new train stations spur residential building booms adjacent to each station, which worsens traffic.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,108
4,542
They are gradually adding train routes throughout the Los Angeles area, but it's a decades-long effort. Ironically, new train stations spur residential building booms adjacent to each station, which worsens traffic.

Japan had such infrastructure in place decades ago and it only gets better now. China gets a whole one up and running within a few years. The time it takes to get things done in California is just pathetic these days. What can be done in a month takes a year or two it seems like here. To add a lane of road in Irvine which is like 1 mile long max (take or give) they have spent a few years working on already. This would have been done in like 2 months in China max. Built very nicely might I add too. People sit in traffic for hours on that 405 freeway everyday. They could easily build an underground bullet train that runs along the 5 freeway and 405 freeway up and down the coast. This would eliminate traffic by probably 50%. There would be less accidents and less deaths too. Less elderly driving on the roads and less incapable drivers too.
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
39,844
7,681
Los Angeles
It's now reported that after flight controllers told Zobayan that he was too low for them to see on radar, the chopper climbed 765 feet in 36 seconds, but then veered off course and descended 325 feet in 14 seconds, with a terminal velocity of 176 miles per hour. That's more than the previous estimates I've heard.

A nearby witness said the chopper was "spluttering."

One accident investigator said that mechanical failure is a possibility ("splulttering" supports that theory). He said another possibility is spatial disorientation, where even an experienced pilot can get confused about where the horizon is.

The helicopter had a ground proximity warning system, but some pilots turn it off if there are too many false alarms, which can happen when flying over tall buildings in Los Angeles.
 

44267547

Cancelled
Jul 12, 2016
37,642
42,491
I know I’m repeating myself, but I am just astonished that that helicopter was permitted to takeoff, and the fact that this ‘experienced’ pilot was even comfortable transporting eight other people with their lives at risk. The end result being, fatal.

I’m not knocking the pilot for the amount of years that he has flying, but at what point does defensive instinct kick-in (Which applies to anyone in this situation) and say ‘I’m not flying this helicopter under these conditions with passengers on board’, Period...end of discussion.

Someone once told me in training that ‘there’s no such thing as accidents’, and I’m kind of a firm believer in that with various exceptions. And this ‘accident’ that happened was completely preventable prior to take off if it was solely due to fog Without the consideration of any mechanical failures.
 

quagmire

macrumors 604
Apr 19, 2004
6,924
2,367
Now I have my answer why the pilot didn't go under IFR. Island Express was only certified for VFR ops.
 

Glideslope

macrumors 604
Dec 7, 2007
7,990
5,444
The Adirondacks.
"Black boxes" (they are actually orange) are only required on commercial and transports (including military)

The reason is
1. Expense (about $100,000) per aircraft.
2. Weight (significant weight in small aircraft)

But in last few years miniaturizing has made it possible to make them smaller, cheaper, and lighter.
AND video recording should now be possible.

Unfortunatly the FAA lags 10 to 15 years behind in adopting new technology.

Gonna respectfully disagree. Even an 8,200hr CFI-II with 1,100 in type can make a mistake. IMO this is textbook Spacial D from entering into IMC conditions from VFR flight. IMO, he knew he needed to climb and once in IMC he became disoriented, lost control, went from 2,000’ to 1,000’ at 4,000 FPM impacting at roughly 156kts. While I’ve never flown rotors they are EXTREMELY challenging to fly slowly in IMC due to the pilots inability to account for drift. He was clearly traveling very slowly prior to making the L turn. It’s interesting to note that there is a Sheriff’s Dept. Helo Pad .75 miles from the crash in the direction of the turn. Was he trying to locate it?

Bottom line, shouldn’t have rushed out under SVFR. Should have requested an IFR plan and let ATC vector. No other rotors were up that morning. I’m not going to speculate as to why he went SVFR.

Tragically I think this will finally push the lazy ass FAA to mandate CVR and FDR’s in rotors with 6 and up pax seating under 91 and 135. The NTSB has been trying to push this since 2004. Terrain avoidance would also be a nice mandate, however I don’t believe it would have helped here. :(
 
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Doctor Q

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
39,844
7,681
Los Angeles
Do you think that a ground proximity warning system could become smart enough to distinguish among a passing skyscraper, a skyscraper in your path, or a mountain in your path? Any device that issues false alarms needs a redesign so there's no incentive to disable it.
 
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Glideslope

macrumors 604
Dec 7, 2007
7,990
5,444
The Adirondacks.
Do you think that a ground proximity warning system could become smart enough to distinguish among a passing skyscraper, a skyscraper in your path, or a mountain in your path? Any device that issues false alarms needs a redesign so there's no incentive to disable it.

TCAS already serves as a collision avoidance system. Functionally it’s operation is similar yet distinctly different than GPWS.

Neither TACS nor GPWS would have offered any remedy here, IMO, as I explained earlier. As for incentives to disable systems, don’t really want to go there any longer.

The S-76 involved here had no GPWS system installed due to it being optional per the FAA.
 
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Doctor Q

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
39,844
7,681
Los Angeles
I know I’m repeating myself, but I am just astonished that that helicopter was permitted to takeoff, and the fact that this ‘experienced’ pilot was even comfortable transporting eight other people with their lives at risk. The end result being, fatal.
We now know that pilot Ara Zobayan took off in clear weather in Orange County. The fog to the north (in Los Angeles Country) wasn't expected. If he had known about the hills ahead being socked in, he might very well have canceled the flight. As the fog got worse, even the freeway drivers below were having trouble seeing ahead of them.

Now I have my answer why the pilot didn't go under IFR. Island Express was only certified for VFR ops.
That's right. He was required to use visual flight rules because the helicopter's owner didn't have certification for their pilots to fly on instruments, even though he was personally certified to fly either with visual flight rules or on instruments.
 

Glideslope

macrumors 604
Dec 7, 2007
7,990
5,444
The Adirondacks.
We now know that pilot Ara Zobayan took off in clear weather in Orange County. The fog to the north (in Los Angeles Country) wasn't expected. If he had known about the hills ahead being socked in, he might very well have canceled the flight. As the fog got worse, even the freeway drivers below were having trouble seeing ahead of them.


That's right. He was required to use visual flight rules because the helicopter's owner didn't have certification for their pilots to fly on instruments, even though he was personally certified to fly either with visual flight rules or on instruments.

Indeed. I find it interesting that someone with such a high profile would receive services from an 135 operator with no IFR Cert. I’m interested moving forward if they had the certification at any point, and if so, why was it dropped or rescinded?

The cause still remains the same IMO. This is also a perfect example of the inaccuracies of going with local WX forecasts under SVFR. It was obviously far worse than he was expecting upon arrival in that area.

Tragic for all. The textbook combination of events leading up to an incident.
 
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quagmire

macrumors 604
Apr 19, 2004
6,924
2,367
Indeed. I find it interesting that someone with such a high profile would receive services from an 135 operator with no IFR Cert. I’m interested moving forward if they had the certification at any point, and if so, why was it dropped or rescinded?

It is probably cheaper to be a VFR only operator. I would be curious though if the operator had any weather restrictions in their ops spec or as long as they can meet the bare minimums of VFR, good to go.
 

Glideslope

macrumors 604
Dec 7, 2007
7,990
5,444
The Adirondacks.
It is probably cheaper to be a VFR only operator. I would be curious though if the operator had any weather restrictions in their ops spec or as long as they can meet the bare minimums of VFR, good to go.


I looked into this, they have been a 135 VFR only operator since they were incorporated in 1998. The only restrictions were IFR operations. Clean record, the S-76 here was current on it‘s MX and had no outstanding AD’s. I hope this tragedy gets the FAA off their lazy ass and strengthens Part 135 Charter. The NTSB has been trying to get TWAS, CVR and FDR‘s on Rotor Charter Part 135 with 6 seats or greater since 2004.

He did have RALT. I think the NTSB preliminary tragically reinforces that he lost control during his unapproved escape up to 4,000’. The descending left turn is a text book “Spacial D” incident during a transition from SVFR into IMC. Another notable finding in the report is that just prior to realizing he needed to initiate his escape maneuver he had been released by SOCAL ATC as he was too low to be tracked.

There was a change in ATC controllers between this and when he was requesting the climb. He had to reestablish his situation with a new controller while initiating his escape climb to 4,000’. Undoubtly adding to an already highly challenging situation. He only needed 100’ more to be above the cloud layer in VFR to see terrain At 2,400’.

Tragic loss of life. The FAA needs to mandate at least TWAS for these types of 135 Charter operations IMO.
 
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