Kuo: 2024 MacBooks and iPads to Feature 3nm Chips, But Demand Might Fall Below Expectations

[WarmWinterHat]

Who need to upgrade these days except actual professionals? I kept my 2012 MBP for almost 10 years, and I expect my m1 to last almost as long.

My company provides my work computer, so no need to worry about that, and I don't work in tech.

 

[deconstruct60]

Consider this - Marques Brownlee the biggest tech YouTuber hasn’t upgraded his mbp 16 m1 ultra.

I wish they made it in black

He took a 'bath' trading in his 2019 Mac Pro . ( probably written down , depreciated, on taxes ... so not so much a huge loss). And bought a 2023 Mac Pro. Can't buy one of everything ( or at least shouldn't. ). iPhone Pro Max high.

He buys lots of stuff ( on android side too ) . That MBP is likely a secondary system he uses on some road trips.

 

[Anglagard]

I am a Computer Scientist and even though I own a powerful desktop running Linux the machine I use the most is a Macbook Air M2 16/512 that runs all sort of powerful programs and fulfills all my needs.

Bottomline I don't know what people needs are these days that they must buy such powerful systems, if my SSD is close to 85% capacity I simply use external devices and keep what is relevant.

I guess what Im trying to say is current technology is more than fine, don't fall for consumerism, particularly if you don't got money to burn.

 

[3xBoom]

If not for the rapid evolution and depreciation of iOS and its apps, I'd be still using iPhone 4, iPad 2 and so on. I had been forced to do so and shelf perfectly working devices way before their hardware failure. Same is not true with Macs - not only they last but also not as much affected by the aging software (hence "softwear"). Still running a Macbook pro and a mac mini from 2009 (patched, of course). Two main solutions for Apple to "encourage" users to buy new hardware - make crappy hardware in the first place or make backward incompatible software. Both are no-go's, of course. A third solution - come up yearly with breakthrough technologies and features but this is a hard one even if you acquire small tech companies as it takes time to work those into your existing products, etc.

 

[DowsingForPurple]

Apple plans to release new MacBooks and iPads with 3nm chips in 2024, but demand for the devices might be "below expectations" due to a "lack of growth drivers," according to research shared today by supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Kuo explained in a blog post on Medium:Kuo is essentially saying that Apple will no longer have the growth catalysts that it did over the past few years, such as a pandemic-driven work-from-home boost in demand or the newness of Apple silicon, which spurred many customers to upgrade from Intel-based Macs. However, given Mac and iPad sales already significantly declined in 2023, Apple will at least have more favorable year-over-year sales comparisons in 2024.

It's also worth noting that the next iPad Pro models are expected to feature OLED displays, which could be another growth driver for that product line.

Kuo recently said that he does not expect Apple to release any new MacBooks or iPads between now and the end of 2023, although it was recently rumored that a new iPad mini is still possible this year. If Kuo is accurate, it is possible that Apple will wait until 2024 to announce the M3 chip, which could result in a quiet end to this year for the company.

Article Link: Kuo: 2024 MacBooks and iPads to Feature 3nm Chips, But Demand Might Fall Below Expectations

It's almost like Apple are going to learn the same lesson all over again - Customers do not give a flying crap about 5nm vs 3nm etc. These specs are for geeks. They need better ideas for how these devices can help people in every day life.

 

[DowsingForPurple]

Bump up the base RAM and SSD and we'll talk, Apple.

Oh, and maybe a non-anemic macOS update every so often would help.

This. Same goes for iPad OS too.

 

[deconstruct60]

Except M3 is rumored to be on N3E, which is already an improved 3nm TSMC node after the disappointment that was N3B (A17 Pro’s node). N3B reportedly required a bump in clocks to improve yield resulting in no real efficiency gain.

N3E will be followed by N3P and N3S. Both are more optimized than it. If Apple is pushing all the M3 into 2024 that pushes M4 out at least to 2025. By 2025 N3P gets more viable as move later into the year. So a decent chance M4 picks up one of the N3E follow ons.

N3B bumping clocks doesn't improve yields. N3B is just more complicated to make ( more layers, more 'double patterning' , substantively long 'bake' time (more weeks to make) ). N3E pulls back on the complexity. It is less dense logic . Additionally, it uses N5 generation cache/SRAM design constraints and sizes. So the dies that implement the same stuff that N3B did will be bigger. However, the overall wafer processing costs are lower.

N3B major problem isn't yields. The major problem is no one else is buying it and it sucks up a disportioncate share of the EUV fab equipment. The 'bang for the buck' is not big enough to keep it going for a long time. If TSMC had the fab equipment that ASML is going to make for production use 2 years from now N3B would be better. It was just a bit too aggressive. The yields have gotten better, but it is off on an isolated 'island' that almost nobody wants to go to.

 

[ghanwani]

They did address MacBook Pro consumers wants. It was a radical transformation from where the line was with the Intel based chips. Apple almost restored the MacBook Pro to the Early 2015 model with the M1 and M2 models.

That is the specs part. Usability would be things like the UI, weight, etc.

 

[uffenman]

It's almost like Apple are going to learn the same lesson all over again - Customers do not give a flying crap about 5nm vs 3nm etc. These specs are for geeks. They need better ideas for how these devices can help people in every day life.

like put a USB-C port on either side of the computer?

 

[bousozoku]

If they include ray tracing in the GPU, they'll increase demand a bit. If they include overheating, they'll still not be back to the 100 degrees C that my mid-2012 quad-core i7 MacBook Pro did.

 

[sack_peak]

Offer a 2024 iMac 32" 6K M3 for $1799 and I'll buy one yesterday.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Perhaps Apple might go with what they did with iPhone pro max, basically eliminating 128gb option on iPad and force people to go with 256gb.

IMO: the most amazing thing with that was fellow consumers acting as an extension of Apple marketing, spinning there was no price increase because Apple increased the storage. To buy that, one has to accept that WHATEVER Apple charges is the cost, so highly-inflated Apple storage upgrades is reasonable... and thus if Apple chose to up base storage to the 1TB max, that $1599 iPhone would also NOT be a price increase because the new base is 1TB and that's the same as what Apple charged before for that amount of storage. Please pass the kool-aid.

Of course, the amount of money that comes out of the wallet for 256GB or 1TB if they went to that extreme is tangibly MORE. And a lot of us measure if something is or is not a price increase by that measure... not marketing spin attempting to hide a price increase by trying to get the market to normalize the value of a storage increase at full Apple upgrade pricing.

I saw "there is no price increase" in spite of absolutely more coming out of our wallets as the same kind of nonsense as "there is no notch- that's more screen R.E. to the left & right." I'm pretty sure that everyone clearly sees a notch just as every wallet feels a price increase.

But hey, whatever works... or work$$$. Apple competes for richest company in the world and I'm just some guy who owns some of their products. 💰💰💰

 

[nvmls]

Whatever they decide to bring to the MacBooks line, I hope they stop the trolling and remove that notch pos.

 

[sw1tcher]

I’m interested in $1299 13 inch MacBook Pro with all the ports but I don’t want the old one. Not paying 2k to go 14 inch. 16/256 should be the minimum on the 13 inch.

If you live near a Micro Center, they're selling 14" MBP with M1 Pro and 16/512 for $1499.99 new. Apple certified refurbished versions are $1249.99.

 

[Rychiar]

I just want an m3 max studio. It’s been too drilled into my head that this is gonna be a major leap forward that I don’t even want the m2 max anymore

 

[Frankfurt]

This is my buying philosophy:
- Apple Watch (every 2 years)
- iPhone (every 3 years)
- iPad Pro (every 5 years)
- MacBook Pro (every 8 years)
Worked well for me and does not get me worked up about yearly upgrades.

 

[Rychiar]

The truth is, that the current line of M1 and M2 CPU's is more powerful than most users can take advantage of right now. Newer more powerful apple silicon just isn't needed for the majority of those running Apple silicon today. My M1 Pro is now approaching two years old, and it feels as fresh and fast now as the day I bought it, even with the upgrade to macOS Sonoma, this thing seems to just eat through anything that I throw at it. The fans never run, the machine never gets unresponsive.

I'm sure the benchmark crowd would to see faster computing, but if you're not in heavy creative work, a base M1 is still a hell of a computer!

If there is a substantial update in OS and applications, such as on-device AI, or machine learning, that might spur further growth and the need/desire for a hardware upgrade. One can wish!

True the biggest upgrade would be lowering RAM prices cus any Mac that’s a deal is stuck on 8gb which is nigh useless for most creatives.

 

[MallardDuck]

I'm on an M1 max. Have no need for more battery life, and not convinced that mini-led is an improvement.

The performance improvements in M2 and M3 are meh for the workload I do most of the time.

When the mac pro came out without eGPU support, I took my mac/ipad/iphone upgrade budget for the next two years and built myself a real gaming PC with a 4090. That massively impacted the kinds of things I can do with my systems (like AAA games and real ML/AI), in a way that Apple just won't do because they refuse to play well with NVidia.

At this point the only thing that would really push me to upgrade the mac is when it falls out of OS support, and if I'm honest, the same is true for the phone and ipad. Apple has this problem across the product line - Mac, iPad and iPhone all are deep into the 'good enough' territory for the majority of their users. I wish I'd skipped the 14 and gotten the 15 with USB-C, but now I'll wait for the 17. I may upgrade the ipad next year (it's the third year), but even then, it'll be a near thing and only if there's something meaningful in the redesign (a landscape camera isn't enough).

The watch is the only thing that a substantial improvement would trigger an upgrade for me, and that's only if it's a meaningful improvement in battery life (like taking an ultra from 2 day to 7 day life), or a significant new health monitoring capability.

 

[mabaker]

It’s almost like 10% better stuff every year isn’t actually worth it

It feels like PowerBooks all over again with their 100MHz increments.

 

[CalMin]

True the biggest upgrade would be lowering RAM prices cus any Mac that’s a deal is stuck on 8gb which is nigh useless for most creatives.

Now why would Apple give up nice easy revenue like that.

 

[CalMin]

Apple has this problem across the product line - Mac, iPad and iPhone all are deep into the 'good enough' territory for the majority of their users. I wish I'd skipped the 14 and gotten the 15 with USB-C, but now I'll wait for the 17. I may upgrade the ipad next year (it's the third year), but even then, it'll be a near thing and only if there's something meaningful in the redesign (a landscape camera isn't enough).

It's almost as if people are unhappy that their hardware investments last for more years than expected...

I'm sort of in that camp. I like shiny new stuff, and am blessed with enough disposable income that I can upgrade/update without financial hardship. I seek the new flashier devices, but also agree that incremental updates take the shine off things. My 2-year M1Pro destroys everything I task it with. I won't need a new laptop for years. Bummer.

 

[hans1972]

It’s insane to me that some Macs start with less storage than they did 10 years ago. Price per GB on SSDs is cheaper now than it was for HDDs 10 years ago.

Not at all since local storage needs have gone down.

Pictures & videos -> iCloud Photo Library
Music files -> Apple Music, Spotify
TV series and films -> streaming services
Documents and data -> iCloud Drive or similar

I'm using 118Gb on my Mac and I even have a Windows virtual machine installed.

 

[NEPOBABY]

Some people say that 100 is a lot…
What you are listing up there is not a growth driver…

If they sell they sell. You don't need every product to have "growth" as long as they make a profit and encourage users to continue the halo effect (services, accessories, etc).

 

[mikethebigo]

Except M3 is rumored to be on N3E, which is already an improved 3nm TSMC node after the disappointment that was N3B (A17 Pro’s node). N3B reportedly required a bump in clocks to improve yield resulting in no real efficiency gain.

If M3 is N3E then I will need to reconsider my position.

 

[lJoSquaredl]

I'm just waiting for a 15" MBA with an XDR display, the fact I have to get only a beefy louder system with that screen kinda slows my motivation is all. I'm sure I'll have to go one way or the other by next year but I woulda happily purchase this year if we saw the 15" with an XDR model for another $100-200 or whatever.