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Apple believes the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will outsell the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini and the more expensive 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, according to shipment estimates shared in an investor's note today by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

iphone12dummylineup.jpg

According to Kuo, Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:
  • 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini - 20 to 25%
  • 6.1-inch iPhone 12 - 40 to 45%
  • 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro - 15 to 20%
  • 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max - 15 to 20%
Though there has been demand for a smaller iPhone, smaller screen sizes are not popular worldwide. It will be the cheapest iPhone available with rumors suggesting it will sell for $699, but Kuo says that even with the lower price point, it will not meet the demand for a larger display.

The iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max have better hardware and are higher-tier models, but are more expensive, so Kuo's conclusion is that the iPhone 12 "will have the highest shipment allocation" of the iPhone 12 models.

Kuo believes that price point is critical to the iPhone 12's success. Apple's $699 iPhone 11 accounted for 70 to 75 percent of iPhone shipments during the first three quarters of 2020, which Kuo attributes to price. 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to iPhone sales.

Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.

In total, Kuo believes Apple will ship 80 to 85 million units of all iPhone 12 models in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 75 million iPhone 11 units (all models) shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The shipment forecast of 12 series components is 80-85 mn units, higher than 11 series' 75 mn units in 4Q19. However, we think the demand for 12 series in 4Q20 will be lower than that of the 11 series in 4Q19 because of the shorter sales period. Therefore, the shipment forecast of components in 4Q20 does not reflect the real demand for the 12 series.
Apple could miss some peak season demand in the United States and Europe due to the late launch timeline and the "tight supply" after the iPhone 12 series launches. We haven't yet heard much on what iPhone supply will look like, but it's reasonable to assume that since production was delayed into October, we could see some models sell out quickly.

The iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 12 Pro Max, which are not expected to be available until November could be some of the most constrained models. The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro are expected to be available for pre-order the Friday after the event in October, while the iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max will allegedly launch on different dates in November.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini
 
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GeoStructural

macrumors 6502a
Oct 8, 2016
765
2,502
Colombia
Man, release it already. I can´t wait to put my hands on my 6.7" iPhone 12 Pro Max midnight blue, only to cover it later with a case.

I will also choose the lowest storage capacity only to complain later during a trip for not having enough storage.

I am praying they don't water down the camera on the 12 Pro.

Not necessarily "watered-down" since it is going to be an improvement over its equivalent 11 Pro, but they are definitely coming back to having different specs on the "Max" models, arguably due to the larger size... But I feel you, I wish they would give all the iPhones the same specifications across the lineup and the only difference being the screen size.
 
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jclardy

macrumors 68040
Oct 6, 2008
3,697
3,099
Seems probable - I think the "iPhone 12" base model being the exact same size as the 12 Pro will cut into the 12 Pro sales. The Max will be unaffected since the people buying it just want the biggest phone.

I think it'll shake out like this sales wise:
1. iPhone 12
2. iPhone 12 Mini
3. iPhone 12 Pro Max
4. iPhone 12 Pro
 

dcpmark

macrumors 65816
Oct 20, 2009
1,026
815
“Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $1,099, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.”

Must be a mistake, as it’s doubtful the pro will be the same price as the max.
 

dcpmark

macrumors 65816
Oct 20, 2009
1,026
815
Even if the 12 Mini only sold 20% out of the group on average, this would have to be seen as a general win for small phones on the market right? Considering we haven't had any real smaller non-Apple options since the Sony Xperia Compact series.

yeah, it would destroy the opinion that price was the only reason people bought the OG SE, not the size. Can’t tell you how many times I read here that there was no market for smaller phones anymore.
 

ArtOfWarfare

macrumors G3
Nov 26, 2007
9,329
5,476
Does anyone else anticipate this generation will dramatically underperform the expectations of Apple and analysts?

It’s been over 6 years since I last heard anyone complain about the speed of their phone. Having your big selling point be that it’s faster isn’t going to lead to anymore of an uptick in sales than happened last year, and it’ll probably be less, what with people being reluctant to spend money and not really needing to in light of coronavirus this year.
 

Lowhangers

macrumors regular
Nov 26, 2017
191
297
I love the bigger screens, but I hate handling them. I have an SE 2 that works very well for me, the bigger ones are harder to hold and use. The mini intrigues me as I think it is roughly the same size as the SE 2, though I am not sure how much bigger it is. I think it’s just a tiny bit wider or something.
 

jezbd1997

macrumors 6502a
Jul 8, 2015
659
848
Melbourne Australia
He’s likely spot on about that. I used to be a phone reseller years back and remember it being more difficult to sell an iPhone SE than the iPhone 6 despite the better specs of the SE. Most people want the bigger phones.
? You mean the 6S? Yes people have mostly wanted bigger phones as of late, but the 6S still had better specs... Better screen, front camera, LTE Advanced and 2x2 WiFi
 

scoblep

macrumors member
Jun 25, 2014
43
83
It would be disappointing if the iPhone 12 comes in at $100 higher than the iPhone 11. They decreased the price of the iPhone 11 versus the XR I'm not sure they would want to increase the price of their most popular phone.
 
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