Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

[Infinite Vortex]

Our highly scientific MacRumors poll stated otherwise, and it wasn't even close

Which iPhone 12 model will you purchase?

I think I’m going with the 5.4” model. I’m torn between this one and the 6.7” Pro Max. Which one will you pick up?

forums.macrumors.com

True, but I feel that in reality those that would otherwise buy an iPhone 12 mini will have already bought the iPhone SE 2020. Voting on the internet is somewhat different to actually putting one's money down on the table.

 

[Lwii2boo]

Seems probable - I think the "iPhone 12" base model being the exact same size as the 12 Pro will cut into the 12 Pro sales. The Max will be unaffected since the people buying it just want the biggest phone.

I think it'll shake out like this sales wise:
1. iPhone 12
2. iPhone 12 Mini
3. iPhone 12 Pro Max
4. iPhone 12 Pro

100% agree

 

[simsem]

iphone 12 mini, there is not many people willing to spend a lot for phone THIS year. Selling point for iPhone 11 was new tech for reasonable price.

 

[Johnny907]

Kuo is living in a fantasy world if he thinks there isn't going to be a mass appeal for the smaller form factor, so long as Apple doesn't artificially gimp it all to hell in favor of pushing sales of the larger models. When my wife found out about this size she flipped, as she has been mourning the loss of her original SE since she decided to upgrade to the 11 Pro due to the improved cameras last year. She hates the thing, HATES it, and only tolerates it because of the camera sensors.
I tend to agree with her, as I've been using a second gen SE for a little over a month after selling my 11 Pro in anticipation of the 12, and though I miss the OLED screen and better cameras I had forgotten how nice a smaller, thinner form factor can be. I honestly forget I'm carrying the thing sometimes when it's in my pocket, and actually spent ten minutes looking for it the other day until remembering I'd slipped it in my back pocket. It's not that I wasn't aware on some level it was back there, rather I'd just gotten so used to the freaking brick that is the X and later form factor that it didn't register in my mind as "phone in pocket."

Of course it all really depends on what Apple ultimately announces tomorrow, but don't be surprised if the 12 Mini turns out to be the harder model to acquire this holiday season.

 

[sw1tcher]

This is just a move by Apple to move up the ASP of the iPhone yet again.

Last year: iPhone 11 (greatest iPhone ever) 6.1" $699

This year: iPhone 12 mini 5.4" $699
iPhone 12 6.1" $799

And their margins?

Last year: iPhone 11 -- came with EarPods and power adapter

This year: iPhone 12 -- if rumors are true, no EarPods or power adapter

 

[44267547]

I agree with Kuo. The 6.1 was proven to be a strong seller given it still offers a large display With ‘Pro’ features with a cheaper Price tag at $700. The 5.4 model likely will Still be successful in its own right, but the smaller design/display isn’t want most consumers want in terms viewing content.

{Apples line up is very fortified with all these size options, there’s something for every consumer to choose from. Some call it ‘fragmentation’, I call it diversity creating a broadened range of options, which creates more sales.}

 

[simsem]

True, but I feel that in reality those that would otherwise buy an iPhone 12 mini will have already bought the iPhone SE 2020. Voting on the internet is somewhat different to actually putting one's money down on the table.

iPhone SE 2020 have 6 years old design, reason I stuck with iPhone6S

 

[Carmenia83]

Our highly scientific MacRumors poll stated otherwise, and it wasn't even close

Which iPhone 12 model will you purchase?

I think I’m going with the 5.4” model. I’m torn between this one and the 6.7” Pro Max. Which one will you pick up?

forums.macrumors.com

Us nerds on MacRumors are a drop in the bucket of real world customers.

 

[Lwii2boo]

Our highly scientific MacRumors poll stated otherwise, and it wasn't even close

Which iPhone 12 model will you purchase?

I think I’m going with the 5.4” model. I’m torn between this one and the 6.7” Pro Max. Which one will you pick up?

forums.macrumors.com

We are not at ALL representative of the average consumer since we are in a Tech/Apple focused forum It's normal that people here on MR is more willing to get the best (Pro models) or newest (new form factors -> mini) models vs average. Both non-pro will outsell pro ones for sure

 

[MrGuder]

Will the screen resolution on the 6.1 be the same for 12 and 12 pro?

 

[JM]

If " 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to ‌iPhone‌ sales." then Apple needs to not price the mini at the same price as the 11 from last year. Dumb.

*as well as not pricing the iphone 12 at $100 MORE than last years 11. Idiotic.

 

[UltimateSyn]

Us nerds on MacRumors are a drop in the bucket of real world customers.

We are not at ALL representative of the average consumer since we are in a Tech/Apple focused forum It's normal that people here on MR is more willing to get the best (Pro models) or newest (new form factors -> mini) models vs average. Both non-pro will outsell pro ones for sure

MacRumors is the world, and the world is MacRumors. Long Live MacRumors.

 

[dz5b609]

Here come the small phone people on this forum screaming that the 12 mini will be the most selling.

 

[currentinterest]

Don’t forget the iPhone 11. There is a good chance that it’s will also sell well. It will be a good deal at $599. The line up will likely be:
iPhone SE $399
iPhone 11 $599 (or lower?)
iPhone 12 mini $699 (perhaps $649)
iPhone 12 $799 (perhaps $749)
iPhone 12 Pro $999
iPhone 12 Pro Max $1099

A good case can be made that the iPhone 11 will be in the top two or three in sales.

 

[Johnny907]

Does anyone else anticipate this generation will dramatically underperform the expectations of Apple and analysts?

It’s been over 6 years since I last heard anyone complain about the speed of their phone. Having your big selling point be that it’s faster isn’t going to lead to anymore of an uptick in sales than happened last year, and it’ll probably be less, what with people being reluctant to spend money and not really needing to in light of coronavirus this year.

Not willing to speculate until after tomorrow, but yeah if Apple is banking on 5G being the killer feature this cycle then they're barking up the wrong tree. My sincere hope is the move back to Qualcomm modems means improved range and reliability of signal over the previous three models. 4G LTE is plenty fast for me, but it's frustrating when I'm out to dinner with friends or traveling with colleagues and their Samsung phone is getting service somewhere my 11 pro doesn't.

 

[Pyrhonen]

Just waiting for tomorrow to see if the Iphone 12 is worth if or just upgrade to the 11 pro from
My iphone x

 

[Carmenia83]

After an XS Max and an 11 Max, I'd love to downsize to the Mini but I can't give up the telephoto lens. 6.1" Pro it is. Hopefully the camera is the same as the Max, or at least close.

 

[fokmik]

For European people:

- 5.4 64GB - €809
- 6.1 64GB - €919
- 6.1 Pro 128GB - €1159
- 6.7 Pro 128GB - €1259

My advise: Buy another alternative which are significantly cheaper and offer 5G and 120hz.

what ios device alternative is cheaper and offer 5G and 120hz?

 

[PickUrPoison]

It was never about screen size.....it was about the overall size of the phone. Everyone on the planet wants the biggest screen possible in the size of iPhone that they find comfortable to hold and use.

For me and many others who prefer smaller phones, it was always about screen size. My 5s was usable one handed, and my 6s isn’t. Both fit in my front pocket just fine. So will the 12 mini, but it’ll be quite a bit heavier.

There’s a reason Jobs thought 3.5” was the perfect screen size.

 

[azentropy]

Don’t forget the iPhone 11. There is a good chance that it’s will also sell well. It will be a good deal at $599. The line up will likely be:
iPhone SE $399
iPhone 11 $599 (or lower?)
iPhone 12 mini $699 (perhaps $649)
iPhone 12 $799 (perhaps $749)
iPhone 12 Pro $999
iPhone 12 Pro Max $1099

A good case can be made that the iPhone 11 will be in the top two or three in sales.

Maybe if the 12 mini was coming in at $649 and the 12 at $749 or the they started at 128gb they would go lower but I think either they will stop selling the iPhone 11, or it will be priced at $649.

EDIT: One caveat. If they repackage the 11 to also remove the EarPods and power adapter maybe it would go to $599.

 

[Yorkieray]

My sister said last night that she was planning to get the iPhone 12 to replace her XR. I will be ordering the iPhone 12 Pro.
No Mini or Max here.

 

[iFan]

And their margins?

Last year: iPhone 11 -- came with EarPods and power adapter

This year: iPhone 12 -- if rumors are true, no EarPods or power adapter

The iPhone 12 will undoubtedly still cost more for Apple to make due to a new design (new tooling, etc), more expensive Qualcomm modems, new antenna design, and OLED being available across the board. Not $100 more, mind you, but still more.

 

[Syk]

It would be disappointing if the iPhone 12 comes in at $100 higher than the iPhone 11. They decreased the price of the iPhone 11 versus the XR I'm not sure they would want to increase the price of their most popular phone.

And no wall wart or earphones.

 

[MistrSynistr]

The only way the 12 outsells the Mini is if they price the 12 cheaper than the mini.

 

[PickUrPoison]

It would be disappointing if the iPhone 12 comes in at $100 higher than the iPhone 11. They decreased the price of the iPhone 11 versus the XR I'm not sure they would want to increase the price of their most popular phone.

5G added quite a bit of cost, so $699 for 6.1” was always going to be tough. And it leaves nowhere for the 5.4” to be, which was never going to be priced at $599.

At $699/799, I bet they’re still giving up margin compared to the iPhone 11.