Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

[MartyvH]

“Betting?” That’s probably a safe bet given that they’ll almost certainly gimp the smaller model. Classic Apple logic — intentionally withhold features from the smallest phone, then later claim no one wants a smaller phone when other models outsell it.

Gimped? The features will be just like the 11 and/or 12 non-Pro with the addition of OLED and the same A14 processor as the Pros.

 

[Baymowe335]

It will; people want bigger screens.

Apple knows their customers.

 

[karatekidk]

Are you concerned with a watered-down camera on the 12 mini? Considering the mini myself, but I don't really appreciate the watered-down camera compared to the other 12's.

Honestly, not really. I heard the camera on 12 mini is on per with that on 11. I am fine with that.

 

[1rottenapple]

I predict the 5.4 will are a big minority the model that it will setup a trend and
other phone makers will start making mid-range smallphones.

 

[Ladybug]

I have no clue which will sell better but I’m getting the 5.4...upgrading from my 8. I’m not concerned with the camera, 120 hz, or Touch ID even. I just want a small phone. My husband feels the same.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Not a surprise. At the low end of the market, buyers was the largest screen they can afford (e.g., 6.1" iPhone 12), since it is their only device for consuming content. At the higher end, consumers have multiple devices (MacBook Pro, iPad, Apple TV) and can afford to purchase a more purpose-focused (i.e. smaller) phone such as the iPhone 12 mini, or the original iPhone SE.

You think people who buy the iPhone 12/12Mini aren’t the sort of people who own multiple Apple devices like watches, iPads and MacBooks???

Are you serious and why???

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Most people do NOT want the biggest headphone. Most people want the latest iPhone to show off.

1. SE looks exactly like the 5s. People assume you’ve a 5s. That’s not cool for most people.

2. SE was extremely small. So for some that ended up being a deal breaker.

Kuo doesn’t have special powers or insight to know which phone will sell better. He might be sharing Apple’s guesswork or providing his guesswork. Regardless, I’m confident it amounts to zilch.

I am confident 5.4 will sell 50-100% more pieces compared to the 6.1 basic. Most people want the cheapest up to date iPhone. Many people want the right size/smallest iPhone. Not many people want a phablet if they have to pay a premium for it. Those that do usually want the most expensive iPhone (which usually happens to be the largest Pro Max) so they go that way.

I am guessing regular 6.1 will probably be No 3 or maybe even No 4 in terms of units sold globally this year. It will be close to the Pro.

You seem to forget all the people who bought the XR/11 who are now used to a 6.1” sensibly priced iPhone and whom the 12 will appeal to. There’s no way the two Pro devices will outsell the largest of the two mainstream iPhones. What about those the used Plus iPhones too? I think the prediction in this thread is spot on.

 

[Useless Touchbar]

People who want the cheapest iPhone already got or will get SE2. People who want modern small iPhone will get the 5.4". If 20% of buyers really will buy the 5.4" version, that's an indication that there's indeed a massive demand for smaller phones and Android manufacturers surely will take notice. Will be interesting to see how this will turn out.

 

[freezelighter]

Phones should be small.

Big phones are calles iPads.

iPhone 12 Mini is the best iPhone since the first SE.

 

[Dhonk]

You think people who buy the iPhone 12/12Mini aren’t the sort of people who own multiple Apple devices like watches, iPads and MacBooks???

Are you serious and why???

I think you completely missed this person’s message. I’m exactly what Scoop Redux is saying as the high end. I want iPhone 12 mini to go with my iPad mini 5, MB, 16” MBP, AW6.

 

[austyn23]

MR, can you please put the 6.1 iPhone 12 in this image, is driving me crazy...

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I think you completely missed this person’s message. I’m exactly what Scoop Redux is saying as the high end. I want iPhone 12 mini to go with my iPad mini 5, MB, 16” MBP, AW6.

I didn't miss their message at all. They said:

Not a surprise. At the low end of the market, buyers was the largest screen they can afford (e.g., 6.1" iPhone 12), since it is their only device for consuming content. At the higher end, consumers have multiple devices (MacBook Pro, iPad, Apple TV) and can afford to purchase a more purpose-focused (i.e. smaller) phone such as the iPhone 12 mini, or the original iPhone SE.

They suggest buyers of the standard 12 will only do so because its the biggest screen they 'can afford' since it is their only device for consuming content. What a load of rubbish. Does that mean all those people who bought the iPhone 8+/XR/11 didn't own iPads, Apple Watches, MacBooks, iMacs etc? Its stereotyping a wide range of consumers in my view and doesn't corelate to any of the people I know or have encountered. Just because people don't buy the Pro iPhones, it does not mean they can't afford to do so. The Mini will be popular by those wanting a cheaper new looking device and those who just want a smaller iPhone, that I can agree with. I just don't agree with the notion the 12 is only appealing to those on limited budgets. Buying a phone is often an informed decision based on what it offers for a price some is willing to pay. The Pro iPhones don't always appeal because they offer a slightly better experience for quite a bit more money. Many don't see the worth and it shouldn't be assumed that rational is because they can't afford an extra £200-300.

 

[ds2000]

Usually I’ve had the flag ship phone but this time I’m going for the mini.
Two friends were over this weekend who were happily holding their SE’s and are ordering the mini too. It’s going to sell like crazy!

 

[DrRadon]

It would be interesting if the mini actually does end up being the second best selling phone since so many people here claimed that basically nobody wants small phones.

I do want a small phone. Absolutely 100% do. But I don't want to spend the rumored 650$ on it because the way I use my phone relates a lot to why I don´t need/want a big phone and that usage dos not go hand in hand with a price tag that probably will translate to 700€ - 750€ here in Germany.
I litteraly dislike that the new SE is big.

 

[DrRadon]

Most people do NOT want the biggest headphone. Most people want the latest iPhone to show off.

1. SE looks exactly like the 5s. People assume you’ve a 5s. That’s not cool for most people.

2. SE was extremely small. So for some that ended up being a deal breaker.

Kuo doesn’t have special powers or insight to know which phone will sell better. He might be sharing Apple’s guesswork or providing his guesswork. Regardless, I’m confident it amounts to zilch.

I am confident 5.4 will sell 50-100% more pieces compared to the 6.1 basic. Most people want the cheapest up to date iPhone. Many people want the right size/smallest iPhone. Not many people want a phablet if they have to pay a premium for it. Those that do usually want the most expensive iPhone (which usually happens to be the largest Pro Max) so they go that way.

I am guessing regular 6.1 will probably be No 3 or maybe even No 4 in terms of units sold globally this year. It will be close to the Pro.

I have the original SE that looks like a 5S and I can assure you that I get more sex with hotter and younger girls than average wannabe pimp dos.

 

[Zdigital2015]

I have the original SE that looks like a 5S and I can assure you that I get more sex with hotter and younger girls than average wannabe pimp dos.

T. M. I.

 

[Zdigital2015]

I do want a small phone. Absolutely 100% do. But I don't want to spend the rumored 650$ on it because the way I use my phone relates a lot to why I don´t need/want a big phone and that usage dos not go hand in hand with a price tag that probably will translate to 700€ - 750€ here in Germany.
I litteraly dislike that the new SE is big.

Well, those are your choices...love ‘em or leave ‘em. Nothing the size of the 5/5s/SE is ever going to be manufactured by Apple going forward.

 

[VotingforSnoopy16]

I don't need/want the best camera on an iPhone. Just give me the 6.1in. iPhone. I don't really care about the color, because it'll go in a case, which is more than likely black, so why choose a red iPhone?

 

[DrRadon]

Well, those are your choices...love ‘em or leave ‘em. Nothing the size of the 5/5s/SE is ever going to be manufactured by Apple going forward.

The mini is rumored to be only slightly bigger so... huh?

 

[MacBH928]

I can't get it, the mini is 5.4? The iPhone 7 is 4.7 and thats LARGE. Anything larger should be called iPad nano.

I don't think people are using these as smartphones, but more like a PDA where they need to get work done. I want a smartPHONE.

 

[NetMage]

You are right, you don’t get it. The screen is 5.4”, but the lack of bezels and home button means the phone is smaller than the iPhone 7.

 

[v386]

LOL. Small phones may not be popular, but if 10% of people like a small phone this will have massive impact on sales. Consider that since this is the first small phone Apple has released since 2016 there will be a massive proportion of existing Apple small phone customers that will upgrade this cycle (basically 100% of the iPhone SE crowd, of which I am one). Plus, since no major Android-based phone is offered in a compact size, there will be a significant capture of market from Android (if even as little as 5% of the Android market really prioritizes a small phone and is willing to switch platforms, a shift of 5% of the Android market to Apple would have an absolutely massive impact on the iPhone market which is much smaller). I predict the mini will outsell all other variants.

 

[thebeans]

Apple believes the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will outsell the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini and the more expensive 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, according to shipment estimates shared in an investor's note today by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

According to Kuo, Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:

• 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini - 20 to 25%
  
• 6.1-inch iPhone 12 - 40 to 45%
  
• 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro - 15 to 20%
  
• 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max - 15 to 20%

Though there has been demand for a smaller iPhone, smaller screen sizes are not popular worldwide. It will be the cheapest iPhone available with rumors suggesting it will sell for $699, but Kuo says that even with the lower price point, it will not meet the demand for a larger display.

The iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max have better hardware and are higher-tier models, but are more expensive, so Kuo's conclusion is that the iPhone 12 "will have the highest shipment allocation" of the iPhone 12 models.

Kuo believes that price point is critical to the iPhone 12's success. Apple's $699 iPhone 11 accounted for 70 to 75 percent of iPhone shipments during the first three quarters of 2020, which Kuo attributes to price. 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to iPhone sales.

Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.

In total, Kuo believes Apple will ship 80 to 85 million units of all iPhone 12 models in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 75 million iPhone 11 units (all models) shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.Apple could miss some peak season demand in the United States and Europe due to the late launch timeline and the "tight supply" after the iPhone 12 series launches. We haven't yet heard much on what iPhone supply will look like, but it's reasonable to assume that since production was delayed into October, we could see some models sell out quickly.

The iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 12 Pro Max, which are not expected to be available until November could be some of the most constrained models. The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro are expected to be available for pre-order the Friday after the event in October, while the iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max will allegedly launch on different dates in November.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

Of course the 12 will be the best seller. Just like the 11 was last year.

 

[compwiz1202]

because people will not wait until november?
If all 4 were to be released at the same time...for sure the top will be the mini and the max

Yea release date will definitely matter for people who aren't deadset on a certain model. If I would order based on the upcoming announcement, and Max is still a month out, I am going for Pro 6.1" 11PM is already getting big for my pocket, I don't really care much about some better camera specs, and I would save $100 and wait a month less.

 

[compwiz1202]

LOL. Small phones may not be popular, but if 10% of people like a small phone this will have massive impact on sales. Consider that since this is the first small phone Apple has released since 2016 there will be a massive proportion of existing Apple small phone customers that will upgrade this cycle (basically 100% of the iPhone SE crowd, of which I am one). Plus, since no major Android-based phone is offered in a compact size, there will be a significant capture of market from Android (if even as little as 5% of the Android market really prioritizes a small phone and is willing to switch platforms, a shift of 5% of the Android market to Apple would have an absolutely massive impact on the iPhone market which is much smaller). I predict the mini will outsell all other variants.

The even more meaningful thing is how many getting the 5.4" will be coming from Android?