Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

[jmgregory1]

I wonder what the real interest is in a small form factor iPhone today? It's one thing to think back to how nice it was to carry a phone that fits in the palm of your hand. But as devices grew and the things we do on them took advantage of the larger size, I think the limitations caused by a smaller size will steer people away from an iPhone mini. I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, well it is actually but not in the same way, but the iPad mini is an example of how going small doesn't always drive the volume that some thought it might. Same thing with the MacBook 12" or MacBook Air 11".

I've got an old broken 5S in my desk drawer that I get out every now and then for nostalgia-sake, and it looks and feels like a toy, compared to my 11 Pro Max. I was about to say that it could be a nice work travel size iPhone, if I owned two (one large and one small), but I'm already wearing a small screened iPhone on my wrist, so having a small sized iPhone just doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[nph]

So what will 12 pro have that will justify the $200 price increase from iphone 12 if they all have the same OLED screen?

 

[techfreak23]

Really wish they were keeping the 5.8" form factor for the 12 Pro. It was the perfect display size and physical size for someone with medium hands. I've played with the 6.1" 11 and it is just that much bigger to be slightly uncomfortable. 5.4" is a little too small at this point after having 5.8" for the last 3 years.

 

[New York]

iPhone SE 2020 have 6 years old design, reason I stuck with iPhone6S

Same. I upgraded my 6 to the SE 2 when it came out but promptly returned it. There were a couple of reasons, but the aged design is what decided it for me. I never liked the design change from the 5 to the 6, and didn't want to spend yet another 3-5 years with it. I can't wait for the mini 12!

 

[Macaholic868]

Does anyone else anticipate this generation will dramatically underperform the expectations of Apple and analysts?

It’s been over 6 years since I last heard anyone complain about the speed of their phone. Having your big selling point be that it’s faster isn’t going to lead to anymore of an uptick in sales than happened last year, and it’ll probably be less, what with people being reluctant to spend money and not really needing to in light of coronavirus this year.

There is no doubt the smart phone upgrade cycle has lengthened considerably. It was the norm to upgrade every other year when carriers were subsidizing upgrades and it seemed like just about every new iPhone had some new feature of value worth having. In my view that really hasn’t been the case since the iPhone 6.

I bought the original iPhone and upgraded just about every other year until the 5s came out with Touch ID. I had upgraded to the 5 but when I saw Touch ID I knew I had to have it. After that I upgraded two years later to the 6s, waited until the iPhone X to upgrade after that and have stuck with the iPhone X until now. I’m considering the iPhone 12 6.1” for its 5G support.

I don’t take many pictures so I don’t really care about the better camera on the 6.1” Pro but I do care about storage. If the iPhone 6.1” starts at $799 with 64 GB of storage but you’ve got to pay $999 to get the 256 GB version then to me it makes sense to go with the 6.1” Pro since the base price is $999 for 128 GB of storage and the 256 GB model will only be $100 more at $1099. For an extra $100 why not? I could probably get away with 128 GB but there’s something about having my entire music library, all of my photos and most of my movies on device so if I want to save battery life or am in an area without a good cell signal I can access most of my media without streaming.

 

[Taz Mangus]

So the 12 will go on sale before the 12 mini and the mini has a worse battery than the 12. Very risky betting the 12 will sell better than the mini.

I'm upset the battery won't be above par on the mini.

The battery life on the 5.8" iPhone 11 Pro (18 hrs) has longer battery life than the 6.1" iPhone 11 (17 hrs). The battery life for the iPhone 5.4" 12 mini could be the same as the iPhone 11. I am sure the A14 CPU will also be more energy efficient than the A13.

 

[Taz Mangus]

So what will 12 pro have that will justify the $200 price increase from iphone 12 if they all have the same OLED screen?

Suspect it is the camera and its features for the iPhone 12 Pro that won't be on the iPhone 12. Also, maybe larger options for storage on the iPhone 12 Pro model.

 

[Taz Mangus]

Same. I upgraded my 6 to the SE 2 when it came out but promptly returned it. There were a couple of reasons, but the aged design is what decided it for me. I never liked the design change from the 5 to the 6, and didn't want to spend yet another 3-5 years with it. I can't wait for the mini 12!

I still use an iPhone 6S+ and will probably upgrade to the iPhone 12 mini. I don't upgrade that often now, will keep the 12 mini for 5 years like I did with the 6S+.

 

[DrRadon]

Well at the high price point that is rumoured the idea of the bigger one outselling it dos not seem to be to far fetched.

Just looking at myself here, i would love to have a smaller phone with todays power and screen quality... but the reason i crave that goes along with me limiting my phone time by focusing on only Apps that service me (banking, calendar, train tickets...) rather than Apps that steal my time (video streaming, games, dating...) and at that point the price of the original SE just sounds a lot better for a small phone than the rumore 650US$ (wich probably will translate into 750€ here in germany).

I don't need that real estate for the stuff i want to do with my Phone, so it's a lot more in my pocket were i prefer it to be smaller... why do i need to pay the price of half a Macbook for this?

Literally can't wait for this to turn into the third SE four years down the road and drop to 400$

 

[vipergts2207]

It would be interesting if the mini actually does end up being the second best selling phone since so many people here claimed that basically nobody wants small phones.

 

[TallManNY]

I'm hopping the Mini isn't gimped with lack of top end specs because I'd love to get a smaller phone. I'm hoping it isn't too expensive as well.

 

[TallManNY]

Those big ass screen phones are soooo cumbersome to use.
I mean, I really like the design and Face ID on my iPhone X, but my old 5S was much more subtle in my hands and in my pocket.

Yep. I miss that ability to comfortably reach all parts of the screen with my thumb. I could do that with the 5. But can't with the X and XS.

 

[rillrill]

The price seems high for the mini....Apple hedging that coming inflation.

 

[DeepIn2U]

Apple believes the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will outsell the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini and the more expensive 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, according to shipment estimates shared in an investor's note today by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

According to Kuo, Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:

• 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini - 20 to 25%
  
• 6.1-inch iPhone 12 - 40 to 45%
  
• 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro - 15 to 20%
  
• 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max - 15 to 20%

Though there has been demand for a smaller iPhone, smaller screen sizes are not popular worldwide. It will be the cheapest iPhone available with rumors suggesting it will sell for $699, but Kuo says that even with the lower price point, it will not meet the demand for a larger display.

The iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max have better hardware and are higher-tier models, but are more expensive, so Kuo's conclusion is that the iPhone 12 "will have the highest shipment allocation" of the iPhone 12 models.

Kuo believes that price point is critical to the iPhone 12's success. Apple's $699 iPhone 11 accounted for 70 to 75 percent of iPhone shipments during the first three quarters of 2020, which Kuo attributes to price. 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to iPhone sales.

Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.

In total, Kuo believes Apple will ship 80 to 85 million units of all iPhone 12 models in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 75 million iPhone 11 units (all models) shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.Apple could miss some peak season demand in the United States and Europe due to the late launch timeline and the "tight supply" after the iPhone 12 series launches. We haven't yet heard much on what iPhone supply will look like, but it's reasonable to assume that since production was delayed into October, we could see some models sell out quickly.

The iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 12 Pro Max, which are not expected to be available until November could be some of the most constrained models. The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro are expected to be available for pre-order the Friday after the event in October, while the iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max will allegedly launch on different dates in November.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Betting 6.1" iPhone 12 Will Outsell 5.4" iPhone 12 Mini

Umm duh! It’s doesn’t take a genius to assume this will most likely be true since the 6.1” is the be released for sale and shipping before the 5.4”.
these sources details are useless. Not just that releasing 4 models which ine will “sell” more when it’s critical to understand that their ALL sales are important

 

[smulji]

At 5.4, the 12 mini will be physically smaller than the iPhone 6/7/8/SE 2020

Not by much.
[automerge]1602536960[/automerge]

For European people:

- 5.4 64GB - €809
- 6.1 64GB - €919
- 6.1 Pro 128GB - €1159
- 6.7 Pro 128GB - €1259

My advise: Buy another alternative which are significantly cheaper and offer 5G and 120hz.

That would mean you have to go with crappy Android.

 

[smulji]

5G added quite a bit of cost

I actually think the increase in price of the 6.1" iPhone 12 is due to the use of the high-res OLED screen, not 5G. The reason I guess that is because the rumored prices of the base model iPhone 12 Pro and 12 Pro Max are $999 / $1,099 respectively. That's exactly the same price of the base model 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max. If 5G added extra cost then logically one can assume the base prices of the 12 Pro series (relative to the 11 Pro series) would also increase but they haven't (or at least they won't).

 

[PickUrPoison]

Not by much.

Yeah, I figured it out once but I can’t remember the numbers. Something like 2mm less wide and 9mm less tall. But heavier than my 6s. If there’s one thing that would drive me to the SE it would be the weight of the mini.

 

[Zdigital2015]

Seems probable - I think the "iPhone 12" base model being the exact same size as the 12 Pro will cut into the 12 Pro sales. The Max will be unaffected since the people buying it just want the biggest phone.

I think it'll shake out like this sales wise:
1. iPhone 12
2. iPhone 12 Mini
3. iPhone 12 Pro Max
4. iPhone 12 Pro

I think the 12 mini will sell extremely well out of the gate, but once the initial wave of pent up demand is sated, the mini will slip to third or even fourth on the sales charts because the trend has been and will most likely always be towards bigger phones. Time will tell if Apple has achieved the right balance in terms of size and price to make the mini a success. Judging by the iPhone 5/5s/SE acolytes on these forums, the jury is still out. Ultimately, though, they have little power in influencing whether it is truly successful.

My prediction:
1. iPhone 12
2. iPhone 12 Pro
3. iPhone 12 Pro Max
4. iPhone 12 mini

 

[Zdigital2015]

It would be disappointing if the iPhone 12 comes in at $100 higher than the iPhone 11. They decreased the price of the iPhone 11 versus the XR I'm not sure they would want to increase the price of their most popular phone.

Over a 30-36 months payment cycle that’s $3 or less per month. No one is going to give a toss about the price increase, not with it now being OLED and its perceived upmarket value to the end consumer.

 

[PickUrPoison]

I actually think the increase in price of the 6.1" iPhone 12 is due to the high-res OLED screen that the non-Pro iPhone 12 will use. The reason I guess that is because the rumored prices of the base model iPhone 12 Pro and 12 Pro Max are $999 / $1,099 respectively. That's exactly the same price of the base model 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max. If 5G added extra cost then logically one can assume the base prices of the 12 Pro series (relative to the 11 Pro series) would also increase but they haven't (or at least they won't).

Not sure how much switching to OLED added but I think they know that 1,000/1,100 is the limit for Pro/Pro Max. If they have to take a bit of a hit temporarily they’re ok with that.

For the mid range, they’ve priced at $699 and $749 before; though the $699 price point probably was a squeeze, at least they managed to keep it, albeit with a smaller model. But $699/799 for the 5.4/6.1 seems like a no brainer.

 

[B4U]

When they don't even have the same top spec, how is this even a comparison?

 

[DeepIn2U]

Even if the 12 Mini only sold 20% out of the group on average, this would have to be seen as a general win for small phones on the market right? Considering we haven't had any real smaller non-Apple options since the Sony Xperia Compact series.

and of note there is no longer an Xperia Compact series as well - the ONLY small pull from Android I’ve ever had. Too bad Sony it’s a shame this Segment is gone. Their horrible at marketing and that was their minimal sales downfall.

 

[PickUrPoison]

I'm hopping the Mini isn't gimped with lack of top end specs because I'd love to get a smaller phone. I'm hoping it isn't too expensive as well.

If by gimped you mean you’re saving $300 over the top of the line phone so you won’t be getting top of the line features, then yes.

You don’t get what you don’t pay for, and you can’t buy what’s not for sale.

 

[TallManNY]

If by gimped you mean you’re saving $300 over the top of the line phone so you won’t be getting top of the line features, then yes.

You don’t get what you don’t pay for, and you can’t buy what’s not for sale.

Yeah, I'm not expecting it to have everything in the top of the line phone. I'm just hoping that the features it doesn't get aren't ones that I really want. I really want the smaller form factor most of all. I'm fine to buy the best phone. I went from an X to an XS and am currently using the XS. I'm pretty sure I'm going to be fine with a two camera system versus three camera in the Pro. But we shall see tomorrow what else I have to forgo to get the smaller form factor.

 

[sub150]

If by gimped you mean you’re saving $300 over the top of the line phone so you won’t be getting top of the line features, then yes.

You don’t get what you don’t pay for, and you can’t buy what’s not for sale.

We don't know what the mini price point with be.

It will cost less for Apple, thus the price should be lower. Doesn't mean it shouldn't have almost all the same features.

At a minimum, we know it will have 2 camera's vs 3, no ToF sensor, smaller battery and slightly worse battery life, smaller screen (duh). Those all bring down Apple's cost. If they gimp it more than that then I'm not sure why. I could see maybe a lower end slo mo video (120 fps HD vs 4k in Pro).

So it comes down to do I care about any of those enough to not buy it. If it's just the zoom camera, ToF sensor, battery trade-off, and lower end slomo video, than those aren't deal breakers to me.