Kuo: Apple Has Already Sold Up to 180,000 Vision Pro Headsets

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I agree that comparing iPhone sales to VP sales is silly however, as far as original iPhone sales are concerned, I believe Apple claimed to have sold around 4 million in the first six months or so. If we assume average pricing was $400 each, that would be $1.6 billion in revenue in six months. Adjusting for inflation, that's around $2.3 billion today.

It appears you missed the bigger point (or I communicated it poorly): why is this being compared to iPhone at all? It's not a:

• phone (unless perhaps one installs one of many VOIP apps available for iPad).
• iPod (unless perhaps one considers running the music app and listening to music on it as equivalent).
• internet browsing device. Well it does have Safari as a stock app, doesn't it?

That prior post was adjusting to what seemed to be a more fair comparison of NOT Gen 17 iPhone sales vs. pre-launch GEN 1 of Vpro sales... not tabulating a full year of iPhone GEN 1 as we can do now looking back vs. only 3 days of pre-release sales of Vpro with no clue- good or bad- how it may sell over the next 12 months, etc. To those locked in on wanting to compare it to iPhone, it seems much more reasonable to compare it to year 1 of iPhone than year 17. Else, wait for the year 2041 to compare 17 years of Vpro refinements & improvements to year 2024 iPhone. Vpro 2041 might be an invisible implant by then, no glasses required at all. TBD.

To paraphrase a classic political debate line: "I know iPhone and Vpro is no iPhone."

What Vpro is is its own thing... something else (not a smart phone)... with its own features & benefits. Mac, iPad, Watch, ASD, HPs, Car, etc are also no iPhone... and all of those are doomed to "DOA" or declaration of "failure" if ANYTHING new in any of those must outsell fully refined & matured, year 17 iPhone volume right out of the gate.

Most people probably don't have much of a clue what this can do yet. Nobody but a few Apple insiders know the full list of third party apps today. There appears to be great confusion among us Apple enthusiasts if it will have a calculator or weather app (because almost certainly among the "1 million" apps available on day 1, none will be the dozens of calculator & weather apps one can find in the iPad App Store right now).

There is not ONE objective review of the product yet to help people get a sense of the good and the bad... what it can and cannot do... how it can "fit in" or not fit in with other products, and where it offers meaningful value or improvement vs. the "as is."

All that is about to change not too far after FEB 2, when the curtain is fully pulled back and all this bias based upon vapor speculation becomes tangible based on the 'reality' of exactly what it is, what it can do and so on. I look forward to my own demo, seeing it with my own eyes, trying one on my own head... and will pass my own judgement- positive or negative- after I have actual experience with it.

 

[Chuckeee]

Early sales are positive though. Clearly it’s early, but soooo many people on MR want to say it'd bomb from day one. Those people can officially suck it on these numbers!

1. Actually, I believe it’s a small number of very prolific MR members not actually a large number of people.

2. Also, keep in mind that MR members aren’t really a good representation of the Apple consumer marketplace in general

 

[grjj]

That "sales" numbers don't really count until the initial 14 day return period is over.

 

[jeffmetanna]

First, think about all the companies who bought this for their development work. Second, think about all the Youtubers who bought this for their contents. Third, think about all the influencers who bought this for their “contents”. Next, think about all the scalpers who bought this to resell. How many consumers do you think actually bought this?

 

[JCCL]

Apparently "dead on arrival". Lolol 😂

Even if he is 50% wrong, it’s still a massive success.

There was no doubt the initial preorders would sell out. There are enough Apple enthusiasts and followers to sell out the initial stock.

The key thing will be if they keep momentum.

 

[itsboi]

I would have mistaken this forum as an Android site with the way people want Apple to fail so bad.

You have people comparing the iPhone in its 17th year to a first gen product.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

As many have stated im wondering how many people bought this with the intention of trying it out and returning it.

Also, you have certain Apple faithful that will purchase anything they launch so those will be units kept. As for the masses I don’t know if any average consumer picked one up, in fact I would be willing to wager they don’t even know what it is.

I don’t know anyone in my immediate group of people including co workers that purchased a unit. All very Pro Apple.

 

[SmugMaverick]

and how many of these will be returned?

Many, many of these will not be purchased by genuine users but instead people being either curious to try it with no intention of keeping it or YouTubers desperate for content and milking it for the usual:

Preorder video
Unboxing video
First Impressions Video
24 hours later video
48 hours later video
1 week later video....

.... and then send it back for a refund.

This

So many people are going to buy this to just try out, once they get bored and the novelty wears off after looking at dinosaurs and the sky for the hundredth time and with no YouTube or Netflix, it'll be sent right back.

 

[CausticSoda]

Oh Jeez... What a boring thread of haters vs fans. I only scanned it, but people seem so polarised these days in politics and everything else. Very little reasoned argument here with people entrenched in their positions and few debating real pros and cons with any objectivity. It's been a polarising product for sure. I can't help but think many haters are people who would actually quite like it, but can't afford it... (Aesop's Fables The fox and the grapes)? I'm quite excited by it, but the first gen or two are not for me. Hats off to those who are getting it though, and can tell us all about it. I hope this will become a product I'm happy to shell out a few thousand on in the near future.

 

[Rogifan]

How would he know? He doesn’t have access to sales data. I highly doubt ”supply chain checks” for this product are accurate.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

500,000 units would be really poor. Anything less than 2 million would be a flop. This is the first new product from Apple in a decade, after all.

If you believe rumors about key component supply volume, they can't make more than about 400K units this year for ANY price. Up them to $10K per unit and the max possible is- apparently- 400K units. Up them to $50K per and the max number is still- apparently- 400K units.

It is not a sales problem- and certainly not a relative sales problem- but simply a manufacturing one... unless key suppliers can overcome heavily rumored obstacles to successfully making many more key parts.

Like that first iPhone, the ramp up potential apparently comes in subsequent years... if demand is such that more suppliers need to be sourced to add to the quantities of key parts able to made from the "as is" manufacturers.

I believe one key supplier with a hard limitation is Sony (making the 4K lenses). Conceptually, I would guess that Apple could turn to LG, Samsung and others to also make the same part too to get the numbers up... but that will take time to actually work it out and do it. Based on rumors, 2024 is scarce supply no matter what (a dream scenario for scalpers). 2025+ is where the potential for bigger volume may be unlocked.

 

[tomtad]

So much hate, praying on knees for failure, concoction of theories for reduced future sales, immediate disbelief of reports. Selling of 180,00 units simply cannot be true and must be Apple propaganda and a lie. The entire tech blog universe is up in arms.

Wait. Where have we heard this before? Oh, right...

Macintosh
iPod (only 1000 songs?)
iPad (remember the feminine napkin jokes)
iPhone (doesn’t have keyboard so not a good business phone)
Apple Watch (will fail in a mature watch market, doesn’t have a chance)

And remember that crusty old curmudgeon John C Dvorak chastising Apple for that useless gadget called a mouse and urging them to cease development of something no one wanted?

And so it goes. How long until Vision Pro knockoffs are shipping out the backdoors of Chinese factories?

I disagree with this. Your argument seems to be because Apple has launched successful products before then all products they launch will be a success.

You're also omitting products such as Apple TV (today Apple reinvents the TV) which then became a hobby, and the original HomePod which was canned two years after launch and hasn't exactly set the world alight since. I also remember a whole keynote just for the launch of the iPod Hifi.

What strikes me as different with Vision Pro is how it's marketed and has been fundamentally conceived. All the products you list above, and the classic Apple approach, was to identify a problem and invent a product to provide a solution. Apple always sold the products on what you could do whereas with Vision Pro it seems the other way round. It's a very impressive bit of hardware which isn't really clearly solving anything and is instead looking for a purpose.

I will also say another point of difference is Vision Pro isn't a universal product. There are people who can't use it with certain health conditions, it's heavy, some find it uncomfortable and I can't imagine it works well with make up. You also have to be fitted to it. All of these are barriers for mass adoption.

Personally I see this product going in the hobby direction similar to Apple TV, it will be something that will be supported and continue, and there will be some interesting use cases I'm sure, but it won't see mass adoption for a long time, if ever. Vision Pro to me is Apple's attempt at having something in the market in case this is where the future goes but it seems a response to the whole Metaverse hype there was a few years ago before everyone largely forgot about it.

 

[StuBeck]

Doesn’t motion sickness come from lag which Vision Pro virtually doesn’t have? Maybe, I don’t know, wait until people get to actually test them?

It typically comes from the screen moving but your body not moving. I don't believe this has done anything to help resolve that.

 

[Scarpad]

Sony's Pulse handheld for the PS5 received much hate then once it sold out and reviews came out showing how people were loving it, the mad scramble to find them.

 

[XboxEvolved]

People complain about display issues in the iPad mini which aren't present in the iPad Pro. Are those people complaining about headsets in general or specifically the VP high uses higher quality displays?

Headsets in general give you motion sickness. There’s a lot of stuff you can’t avoid about it, besides the screens it can mess with your balance, and the pressure of having something on your head aggravates it more.

 

[Zest28]

Probably alot of them were bought with 25% discount by Apple employees who are typically very high earners.

 

[twolf2919]

Correct

This is a 10 year masterplan and we’ll see many iterations of the AVP

The AW took off after the version 4 and nobody calls it seriously a flop.

I don't think anyone called it a failure after the first year of availability in which it sold over 8m units.

If the 10 year masterplan turns the AVP into AARP (no, not that AARP, silly - Apple Augment Reality Pro!) then I completely agree. The problem Apple will have in the meantime is a classic chicken vs. egg - developers really don't have any motivation to write apps for this platform until there is a market for them and they can make money - but consumers will not buy enough of the AVP until there are enough apps to make it worth the purchase price. And since the purchase price is so high, it would take a lot of useful apps.

 

[Lakersfan74]

Because Apple. If it was by anybody else it wouldn’t have.

 

[Mimiron]

Really looking forward to actual reviews when people get their hands on the product. I'll be waiting on gen 2 when the device is lighter and when they tweak the keyboard.

 

[jarman92]

Needless to say that clearing of the CCs happen in Europe normally after four weeks - thus not the same as in the US.

Just out of curiosity…what does this mean?

 

[rp100]

I’m looking forward to the reviews that aren’t carefully curated by Apple. Apple is risking a lot on this venture and, even if AVP as it exists today is a failure, the R&D that Apple has done is likely to pay off on a future product or service. Who knows… maybe Apple pivots to the health sector and markets this towards surgeons? Maybe it gets used in military applications for people who fly drone airplanes? The hardware appears to be solid; it’s the application and perceived necessity that’s going to sell the device.

 

[BGPL]

Whether or not this product will sell massive numbers at its high price point is irrelevant. It will drive other manufacturers to generate better VR/AR products, much like Tesla drives the EV market today and also like the iPhone drove the smartphone market in 2007. The alternatives produced by non-Apple competitors will create competition and bring down the $3500 price tag. Right now the only competitor is the $300 Quest 2 and $999 Quest Pro.

 

[webkit]

It appears you missed the bigger point (or I communicated it poorly): why is this being compared to iPhone at all?

I didn't miss it as I clearly stated in my first sentence that comparing iPhone sales to VP sales was silly.

My point was regarding the 1.4 million figure you used (Apple claimed to have sold around 4 million iPhones in first six months) and average retail pricing was more like $400 each and therefore your $490M year 1 figure was way off. If Apple sold around 4 million iPhone in six months as they claimed and average pricing was around $400 each, total revenue was much higher than $490M. More like $1.6 billion (then) or $2.3 billion (today's dollars) in six months.

 

[votdfak]

Sony's Pulse handheld for the PS5 received much hate then once it sold out and reviews came out showing how people were loving it, the mad scramble to find them.

Playstation Portal is 199$ vs 3499$. Big difference.

 

[Apple_Gabe]

The only time that I would be really interested in using the vision pro is when I'm traveling, like on an airplane or a long car ride. I can't see myself using it in a home setting in place of my MacBook or desktop. For that reason I'm not considering getting it right now.